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WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones


1900hurricane
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Surprised this is only at 140kts. Hard for me to believe such an incredible sat presentation along with a cleared out 5 mile wide pinhole eye is only producing 140kts.
Anyone know the pressure on this thing?
Just satellite estimates. Unsure if the Japan-based recon project from several years ago is still a thing. ADT unfortunately isn't the best with small 'canes/typhoons that have pinehole eyes. Hence 945 mb / 115 kts at present via latest estimates. JTWC notes this issue in its prognostic reasoning:

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH A VERY COMPACT CORE OF INTENSE CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 5NM PINHOLE EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE AND AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 080433Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED THE PINHOLE EYE SURROUNDED BY A CORE OF INTENSE CONVECTION AS WELL A MOAT REGION AND ANOTHER BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION WHICH IS LIKELY THE FIRST SIGN OF A DEVELOPING SECONDARY EYEWALL. AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC) IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMMINENTLY. OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE STRUGGLING TO PROPERLY ASSESS THE INTENSITY OF STY 19W DUE TO EXTREMELY SMALL EYE, THE ADT AT TIMES SWITCHING TO EMBEDDED CENTER TECHNIQUE AS IT STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN TRACK ON THE EYE. SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE ALSO STRUGGLING TO PROVIDE CONSISTENT AND ACCURATE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AS THE RESOLUTION OF AVAILABLE INFRARED IMAGERY IS SUCH THAT THE EYE TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS ARE SHOWING WILD SWINGS FROM AS HIGH AS 16C TO AS LOW AS -48C. ADDITIONALLY, A STRONG INNER-CORE LIGHTNING BURST WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN 0200Z AND 0600Z, WHICH COULD ALSO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION LEADING UP TO THE 0600Z INTENSITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS BASED PRIMARILY ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF AN UNOFFICIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.0 OBTAINED AT 0310Z USING THE ADT EYE TEMP OF 16C AND COMPARING THE OVERALL STRUCTURE AT THAT TIME TO THE STRUCTURE AT 0600Z, WHICH HAD DEPICTED AN EVEN SMALLER EYE AND COLDER CLOUD TEMPERATURES, THE LIGHTNING BURST AND ASSESSMENT OF THE AMSR2 MICROWAVE DATA. THUS THE LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY IS WELL ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE FIX ESTIMATES. STY 19W IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW NORTHERLY VWS, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST, HIGH OHC WATERS.
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32 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:
RAI absolutely went beastmode today. May make a run at Cat 5 before landfall. Any chasers going to be documenting this one? 

Still a pandemic. I doubt anyone would be making the trip into the Philippines. At least I am aware of none.

I know josh isn’t due to COVID. BTW- we now have a cat 5

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On 12/21/2021 at 2:08 PM, Scorpion said:

Josh must be losing his touch, is he suffering from long covid or something 

Unfortunately the Philippine government isn't allowing most foreign nationals into the country at this time. Even if Josh were to fall into one of the limited categories allowed entry, he would have to undergo a minimum 6-day quarantine which would have made it pretty much impossible to chase Typhoon Rai. There are also travel regulations on the local level that vary from one jurisdiction to the next that would have added to the difficulties of chasing.  

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 I kind of missed this one, since I don't normally look for tropical storm information in April. There was a Category-4 equivalent Typhoon Malakas, with max wind of 115 kt as determined by JTWC, on April 13th. This was away from land areas south and east of Japan, and west of Guam, if I could ever find Guam on a map, seriously.

 

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The beastly annular Super Typhoon Hinnamnor ongoing in the WPAC may threaten landfall near Okinawa in the coming days. Could be some interesting direction changes in its track with respect to the strong block and Fujiwara interaction to a developing TC to its south. Though as strong as Hinnamnor is and the upper ridge it is inducing, the extreme southern bend by the TC mesh models might be overdone as the second system may get sheared off and remain weak.7fcc0c46dbfb941449c605d29851168a.gif
68e8dbfdb7be4c4932a1393694d56854.gif

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Super Typhoon Hinnamnor tracked to the southwest quite a few miles today. It was relatively close to Okinawa around 24 hours ago.  The 00z advisory from JTWC has it up to 140 knots. It is east of Taiwan. It is not right on Ishigaki island. (part of Japan, I believe.) Now that's a lot of wind.

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11 hours ago, tmagan said:

Seoul, South Korea, the DMZ and parts of North Korea may face an 'Ida' situation Monday as Hinnamnor moves to the south of the peninsula. Both the GFS and ECMWF have a foot of rain for Seoul. Keep in mind the peninsula is not flat either.

Super typhoon Hinnamnor expected to land Busan on Tuesday
 

Super typhoon Hinnamnor, the 11th cyclone for the year, is expected to land on Korea’s Busan and the southern coastal areas in South Gyeongsang Province on Tuesday, changing its course from what has originally been anticipated.
 

 By the time Hinnamnor lands on the Korean Peninsula between Monday evening and Tuesday morning, its central pressure is expected to reach between 940 and 950hPa. Typhoon Sarah in 1995 and Typhoon Maemi in 2003, both of which devastated the country, recorded central pressures of 951.5hPa and 954hPa, respectively.

 
 https://www.donga.com/en/article/all/20220903/3613183/1

 

 Two worst to hit Busan:

 1) 1959 Sarah:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Sarah_(1959)
 

2) 2003 Maemi:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Maemi

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