notlikethis

WPAC is about to spin up a 130kt monster with basically all models in good agreement on likely RI sometime in the next 48-72 hours:

After sitting & spinning east of Shanghai for 3 days it's now ejecting directly over the Japanese archipelago as a high-end tropical storm. I'm forecast to be right near the center (along with >50% of Japan's population):

I'm not sure how the Japan Meteorological Agency defines sustained vs gusting winds, but I believe it's forecast to peak in intensity today with the following: Central pressure 915 hPa Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt) Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt) I don't think that would quite be Cat 5 but their measurements might be different too, I'm not really sure. Here's how the Japanese government is talking about it (with help from Google Translate): The Meteorological Agency and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism held a joint press conference one after another on the 3rd and 4th, calling for the maximum caution against the approaching typhoon No. 10 using the word "special warning level". The "special alert" is one of the largest alerts that indicates an "emergency situation", such as once every several decades. It is unusual to mention from an early stage that the forecast may change depending on the future course of the typhoon. In order not to cause a serious life-threatening situation. If there is an unprecedented danger, it is necessary to be fully prepared and vigilant.

Classic satellite representation and will achieve super typhoon status later today, as shaggy noted:

A similar Marco/Laura situation unfolding for the Korean peninsula as another yet-to-be-named typhoon is forecasted to follow on Maysak's heels into the Korean peninsula after impacting Kyushu & Shikoku in southern Japan as a strong typhoon.

Didn't see this thread before posting about Bavi in the Marco/Laura banter thread. King Jong-un better hold onto his toupee!