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WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones


1900hurricane
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46 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Freddy is crawling into this latest landfall. Some modeling allows the cyclone to stall just inland only to re-emerge off the coast (again) with another period of reintensification. Need to go back over ACE numbers, but Freddy may have even surpassed Ioke for all-time highest now.
bb4091be094a6d72f5eae733018dd4e4.gif

This city is pretty close to the center, a very tight core! (Got this on windy)

Screenshot_2023-03-11-09-09-36-945.jpg

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On 3/11/2023 at 3:53 PM, Windspeed said:

I'd imagine a pretty dire surge situation for low-lying coastal communities there. Non-stop onshore onslaught of flow and fetch in the southern semicircle of the cyclone must be driving water into the port and river estuaries around Quelimane.
fc0bcd4fb2ca4af38df5ee8267894190.gif042020d70fa5f13ad18350dbce76b682.jpg

Images starting to emerge. It's never good when you don't hear much news a couple days after landfall. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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  • 1 month later...
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Cloud tops are warming a bit, but I think this might be pretty normal during the daytime and is not necessarily indicative of gradual weakening. Either way, the stage has already been set for a devastating storm surge and even if the storm does weaken upon landfall it won't make a huge difference in that regard. 

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The orientation of the coastline in the Sittwe area definitely has me concerned about locally-enhanced storm surge. Mocha's strength and motion, along with the overall orientation of the coastline, are reminding me of Hurricane Ian, although there are great differences in topography (notice the hills and mountains running parallel to the coast).

Those lowlands are in big trouble. I've extremely concerned about any humanitarian crisis that will follow Mocha's landfall.

mocha-concern.png

 

EDIT: it looks like I'm not too far off with respect to the highlighted area of concern, at least according to this forecast.
 

 

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TS Mawaw (it will be called Betty in the RP) when it enters Pagasa area of responsibility) may be a threat to the Philippines in a week.  I don't have the attachment space to post the GIF, but it is looking good.  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=02W&product=ir  Sub 920 on GFS in a week.

 

Op GFS and Euro are a near miss N of Luzon, 0Z Euro ensemble is close.  Re file name, Pagasa uses Filipino names, usually English or Spanish, and are a lot easier to remember than the WMO names of WPac cyclones.

BettyEuroEnsemble.PNG

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3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Not a super typhoon per JTWC (70 knots), but I can get satellite images into the thread without using up more attachment space with Twitter.  GFS does get it to 915mb next weekend.  GFS and ensemble mean are a near miss for Luzon.

 

 

 

Global models have this storm going over Rota Island, Northern Mariana Islands, part of the USA.

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7 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Not a super typhoon per JTWC (70 knots), but I can get satellite images into the thread without using up more attachment space with Twitter.  GFS does get it to 915mb next weekend.  GFS and ensemble mean are a near miss for Luzon.

 

 

 

912MB now lol

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15 hours ago, Chinook said:

Global models have this storm going over Rota Island, Northern Mariana Islands, part of the USA.

Shifted south now to rake Guam with a northern eyewall as it passes as a strong cat 3. A few more shifts would spare them that type of hit but they should see a good hit regardless.

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4 hours ago, shaggy said:

Shifted south now to rake Guam with a northern eyewall as it passes as a strong cat 3. A few more shifts would spare them that type of hit but they should see a good hit regardless.

I wonder if the earlier bend W increases the threat to the Philippines, although most GEFS members recurve before landfall..  Cat 3 over or near miss of Guam is a big deal.  Looking at maps a few days ago, I forgot all about Guam because it is so small.  I spent a couple of hours in Guam, in the airport.

NWSGuamForecast.jpg

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For being such a tiny target, Guam is one of the most high end hurricane prone population centers in the world. They get a direct major hurricane strike about every 20 years or so. They'll be fine structurally, it's more a concern of life after the storm being difficult for weeks if not months after. 

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5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s an absolute buzzsaw on satellite and radar even with an apparent attempt at an ERC.

That eye is clear and it's a beast. 140kts just prior to landfall as predicted with a pass over the island. Gonna be rough rode for them.

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