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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion


NWNC2015

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1 hour ago, packfan98 said:

So were the 18z GEFS as juicy as the 12z?

Not really....hard to get excited with the SER showing up in the short/med range.   But the similarities to what we are seeing and what is being progged mimics solid analogs 83/84/13 is encouraging.

 

Screen Shot 2016-12-08 at 8.26.20 PM.png

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

Yep...so Dec 83/84/2013 has some similarities to how this Dec is evolving.  Then I plotted temps for Jan-Mar 84/85/14 showing how cold it was.  Below is H5. 

IMG_3355.PNG

Yeah I remember that winter of 84/85. The coldest I ever had. I was living near Swansboro NC at the time and it was 5 degrees on Christmas morning. Not much snow though. Just extremely cold and dry.

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2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Stupid JMA is BLOW TORCHING the whole country weeks 3 and 4 #ugly  Has JB rattled. lol 

I'm more worried about the SER.  I don't like where we are for a widespread SE event.  We do appear to be moving in the right direction, however.  This pattern also looks nothing like last year. 

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10 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

He's forgotten more about science then most of us on here put together know. Hyperbole? NE and MA sensitivity I'll give you. That slosh theory does have science behind it and if you ever heard it explained makes sense. But its a theory just like cohens theories and several others out there. Not a absoloute 

I don't doubt he's a very smart guy.  His hyperbole is just so bad it overshadows his talents IMO. 

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5 hours ago, LovingGulfLows said:

On the 00z GFS towards the end of the run right around Christmas Eve, a low develops pretty deep in the gulf. Perfect track for a classic Miller A snowstorm in the South. Unfortunately ,it looks like there is a SE ridge though which is preventing the cold air to drop faster.

Meanwhile 6z GFS has us all in shorts and t-shirts for Xmas.  Now which one will be correct.  My money is on 6z.  Because going with the warmer more miserable solution for winter is always best bet regardless of being in SE or MA.  I will say the GEFS looks better/colder which some will say is best to look at in this range but these frequent bad Op runs are making me think December to Remember will be confined to Midwest/West.  We shall see. 

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6z gfs a total train wreck. From lows tracking south through Florida to cutters and springtime Christmas....unreal how different the same model is from run to run. Not just for one system but for the entire 300 hrs. The only thing that looks reasonably close to the same is the next 84hrs.

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7 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

6z gfs a total train wreck. From lows tracking south through Florida to cutters and springtime Christmas....unreal how different the same model is from run to run. Not just for one system but for the entire 300 hrs. The only thing that looks reasonably close to the same is the next 84hrs.

Which is how it is every winter. With several shots of cold coming, a solution that shows a warmer Christmas with another surge of cold near new years wouldn't surprise me as being the way models lean toward.

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2 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Which is how it is every winter. With several shots of cold coming, a solution that shows a warmer Christmas with another surge of cold near new years wouldn't surprise me as being the way models lean toward.

Id bet the house that when I check back at lunch the 12z will be drastically different than the 6z which is frustrating to me. So look no further than 5 days out would make the most sense I suppose.

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I am getting more intrigued by the time frame next weekend.  As already noted the 0Z euro last night verbatim shows some wintry weather in CAD favored areas.   Even the "disastrous" 6Z GFS at the same time period has no storm, but look at the low it happens to pop in the Atlantic, too suppressed to do anything, but that would be exactly where I would want this model to be this far out in time.  Of course, long way to go here, but will be paying close attention to this time frame.  Lots of factors such as vort spacing, how far south the arctic front presses, etc., will determine outcome, which may take several days for models to work out

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Unfortunately, the pattern seems to strongly favor a significant and recurring SER.  Until we see that feature stop showing up on these various model runs, you can safely conclude that any real cold pattern will be transient in the SE.  The Midwest and northern tier should benefit though.

We need to hope that plenty of snow and cold builds across the north through December so that we can make use of it if the pattern eventually changes later in the winter.

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10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Unfortunately, the pattern seems to strongly favor a significant and recurring SER.  Until we see that feature stop showing up on these various model runs, you can safely conclude that any real cold pattern will be transient in the SE.  The Midwest and northern tier should benefit though.

We need to hope that plenty of snow and cold builds across the north through December so that we can make use of it if the pattern eventually changes later in the winter.

Agree...the similarities in Dec 13th strat too.  Once Jan 2014 started though we got a favorable strat configuration to dump cold in the east.  Probably going to need the same.

If we get early/mid Jan with a stout SER that would suck.

Screen Shot 2016-12-09 at 8.24.35 AM.png

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