griteater Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 19 minutes ago, griteater said: Not enough cold press on the GFS. That's a deal breaker Deal breaker as in if we don't get the big, slow moving cold blast, that presses well south, we got no shot....didn't mean that this run makes it a deal breaker....just for the record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 This isn't guidance. This is garbage. Same hour on the 18z GFS vs the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 The CMC does look better than the GFS at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Rain here I saw this on facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Even with overnight models backing off some, RAH is keeping an eye on next weekend: Latest model runs indicate strong CAD setting up for Friday Night into Saturday. The problem comes Friday night asmoisture advecting into the region in southwest flow aloft may result in some p-type issues. For now will keep precipitation chances just below slight until there is a bit more model consistency and agreement, however wintry precipitation is not out of the question at the end of the period. Temperatures through the extended will be below normal with highs in the low to mid 40s Thursday and Friday, potentially dropping into the mid 30s to low 40s for Saturday. Lows will generally be in the mid 20s to low 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Looks like the EURO is trying to lock in. I'm not the biggest fan of ice, but looks like it's time to make sure the generator is good to go. At least it looks like it changes over to rain for a good while after the initial ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 a little overnight ice on a weekend to heavy rain will go unnoticed here if it even gets cold enough.i don't think this looks like a power issue even for the majority of Virginia.could be some slick bridges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 So basically the 0z GFS backed away some from a wintery threat this weekend, but the 6z came back to the threat. But as others have stated, it looks to be a freezing rain to rain threat for the CAD areas; maybe initially down to the SC midlands. Lets hope the coming days model runs will trend to a better solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jasonl Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 That patchy black ice and slick bridges doesn't go to well with the speed racers that live around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 A little banter; I definitely liked the LR look of the 0z GFS over the 6z. The 0z showed a wintery potential ~ Christmas whereas the 6z showed a warmer solution. But that's the LR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 The GFS and it's ensembles are having major issues with the trying to eject the trough under the deeply negative EPO and the Euro disagrees with this. GEFS Day 10 EURO Ensemble Day 10 is a far more favorable setup...aleutians low with a proper -EPO/quasi-+PNA (I'm making this up, it's early on a Saturday morning)...but negative anomalies far south under the Hudson bay The GFS OP basically has a negatively tilted -EPO pretty much giving us no choice but to have a massive ridge with the negative tilt coupling over the US, this isn't going to happen. Not sure I buy the GFS solution, as you can see no other model (but the GFS) has this in the 168-240 means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 NEED THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST OVER TN INSTEAD OF KS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 GFS is a warm cutter, but Canadian has a wintry setup for western CAD areas with cold high pressure over northern New England, switches to rain, then steady cold after the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 If we have the EURO and Canadian in the same camp with a CAD event, I'd almost be tempted to throw the GFS out. Only reason you can't is because of Murphy's law. Everything that could go wrong will likely go wrong with a winter storm south of D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 25 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS is a warm cutter, but Canadian has a wintry setup for western CAD areas with cold high pressure over northern New England, switches to rain, then steady cold after the storm Well that GFS run was horrible! Instead of SE ridge, the whole country almost looks warm, I say we toss and wait on the para!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Well that GFS run was horrible! Instead of SE ridge, the whole country almost looks warm, I say we toss and wait on the para!?I would like to see the euro myself. The GFS is a weenie today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 The setup on the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 5 minutes ago, griteater said: The setup on the Canadian The Canadian usually does well with ice storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Canadian ice storm CAD areas at 12z day 7Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The Canadian usually does well with ice storms! It just has that look, it want to transfer off the coast and go all Miller B on us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I know it's day 11 12z on the CNC does anyone see that storm in the gulf off the Louisiana coast. Miller A potential? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I thought the para looked less than good at 6z. But that SE ridge scares me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I thought the para looked less than good at 6z. But that SE ridge scares me right now. That, along with nothing to lock in cold high pressure, plus the bias of models over-representing cold in the medium to long range, stack the odds pretty well against a major SE winter storm. Some minor snow/ice to rain in northern/western zones is not out of the question, but this doesn't feel like one of those situations where we're going to trend toward a big winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That, along with nothing to lock in cold high pressure, plus the bias of models over-representing cold in the medium to long range, stack the odds pretty well against a major SE winter storm. Some minor snow/ice to rain in northern/western zones is not out of the question, but this doesn't feel like one of those situations where we're going to trend toward a big winter storm. Man Shetley, where's all the negativity coming from?? This anomalous cold is throwing things off!! The storms can be supressed tomorrow! Let's see where we are Wednesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Man Shetley, where's all the negativity coming from?? This anomalous cold is throwing things off!! The storms can be supressed tomorrow! Let's see where we are Wednesday! I love snow and ice! But unfortunately, my desire for a winter storm can't overwhelm the LR model cold bias or the seasonal trend of cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 12z euro has a nice cad event next weekend Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Mid Atlantic group pretty stoked on the 12z euro. Says it is colder than 00z. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 9 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Mid Atlantic group pretty stoked on the 12z euro. Says it is colder than 00z. TW As long as " King" is on board, I'm riding till the wheels fall off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 As long as " King" is on board, I'm riding till the wheels fall off nice front end CAD event and H5 looks nothing like the gfs 12z euro 12z cmc 12z gfs Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 It appears like the gfs wants to pump that SE ridge in the long range, while none of the other modeling has it. Is this a known bias? It might be a recurring theme for the winter with the american models. Seems to match those extra long range models that have proven to be wrong with the December predictions thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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