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NWNC2015

Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

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13 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

I love to see the end of summer coming.  Need a telescope right now, but at least it's visible.

55 and below in the higher elevations that would feel down right cold after our humid lows in the 70s

 

gfs_T2m_seus_41.png

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We'll take cool weather anyway we can get it.....

From RAH:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH Thursday/...
As of 325 PM Thursday...

...A stalled frontal zone invof the Carolinas will bring wet and
cool conditions for the start of next week...

A northern stream cold front attendant to the upper level low
swinging east through southeast Canada and New England will move
through the area late Saturday night and into Sunday. After isolated
to widely scattered convection on Saturday, mainly in the east in
association with seabreeze, weak and disorganized convection
accompanying the front Saturday night/Sunday morning is expected to
increase in intensity and coverage Sunday afternoon along and south
of Highway 64 where favorable diurnal timing will lead to moderate
destabilization. Deep layer shear of 15kts or less should preclude a
widespread severe threat, however with the cold front forecast to
slow down and then stall across the area, the threat for locally
heavy rain and flooding will need to be monitored.

The stalled front invof the Carolinas will continue to serve as a
focus for scattered numerous showers and storms Monday and into
Tuesday
before retreating northward as a warm front late
Tuesday/early Wednesday. Interaction of the stalled front with a
compact upper low/upper trough over the Deep South by means of
enhanced gulf moisture transport northward into the Carolinas could
lead to multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and quite possibly
flooding.  Additionally, depending on where the front sets up, a
warm season damming event is in the making
, especially across the NC
Piedmont, where daytime temperatures could struggle to climb out of
the mid/upper 70s
.     By Wednesday and Thursday, any lingering
damming regime should succumb to diabatic heating and increasing
southerly flow as the Bermuda high pressure over the Western
Atlantic builds westward towards the Southeast coast. This should
allow a gradual return to near temperatures with near
climatological/scattered rain chances.

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Another thing to watch on the EURO next week....major hurricane headed toward the four corners region...with help from what was Hurricane Earl to enhance development....may eventually enhance the rain and isolated tornadoes down stream in a embedded front. Plenty of time to watch this far east.

ecmwf_mslpa_wus_7.png

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It looks like a return to hot and dry weather is in store in the southeast. Some places in GA and SC are going to get less than .50 of rain over the next 2 weeks according to the 12z GFS and it also shows very hot weather with 95-105 degree heat returning. Not even a brief cool spell in sight.

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I love the stagnant and humid airmass.

 

<from RAH>

.LONG TERM /Friday Through Tuesday/...
As of 320 AM Wednesday...

Impressive upper ridge will modestly strengthen as it extends into
the Atlantic coastal region through the weekend. This will
effectively block and divert moisture advection off the northcentral
Gulf of Mexico northward into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys west of
the mountains, and create a classic convective `ring of fire` around
the periphery of the ridge with convection over central NC
effectively capped by subsidence aloft. Not anticipating many
features strong enough to trigger more organized or widespread
convection in the strongly capped atmsosphere despite abundant low
level instability...primarily modest upslope flow and weak
convergence associated with lee troffing in the west. Convection
will be strongly tied to the diurnal cycle, weakening quickly after
sunset.

Low level thicknesses build gradually into Sunday and Monday, with
forecast 1440 meters indicative of highs above guidance - in the mid
90s. As this is consistent from previous runs, will be bumping the
maxes up a bit each day - ranging from 90 northwest to 95 in the
southeast with associated heat indices reaching 100 to 105 mostly
just below advisory criteria.  Mins will be unseasonably mild in the
stagnant and humid airmass, 72-76 degrees
.  A cold front will slowly
sag southward toward the southern mid-Atlantic Tuesday, providing a
focus for more widespread convection.

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23 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Hoping the 12Z GFS has the end of the run right, highs in the 70's would be nice......

First shot of fall coming soon!! can't wait!

gfs_Td2m_us_41.png

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

GFS looking good lets hope its legit....run this for the rest of the run and its beautiful......perfect football weather.....and good start to my favorite time of the year....

 

 

I'd like more than the .83" it's showing for KJNX over the next 16 days.

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4 hours ago, SN_Lover said:

First shot of fall coming soon!! can't wait!

gfs_Td2m_us_41.png

I hope this comes true. I cannot remember the last time our dew points were below 70 much less 60.

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Finally:

<From RAH>

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...

The persistent mid/upper level ridge will maintain its suppressing
influence over central NC through Wednesday with lingering
oppressive high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat indices
around 100 both Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper ridge will be
retreating as a short wave moves into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.
The resulting deeper southwest flow will lead to increased moisture
advection off the gulf into western NC and corresponding increased
PoPs, especially in the western piedmont, on Wednesday afternoon.

Long awaited pattern change initiates Thursday as the frontal zone
which had been hovering ominously west of the Appalachians for the
past week is realigned to an east-west orientation, and then nudged
south into the area as the aforementioned short wave moves across
the mid Atlantic. PoPs will be maximized (at least 50% chance) on
Thursday as the frontal zone creeps very slowly south with lower
thicknesses and cloud coverage producing highs in the mid and upper
80s, with some lower 90s possible in the southern tier counties.

The front will be lingering in the vicinity of the NC/SC border
through the weekend with PoPs graduated accordingly on Friday-30%
north to 50% south, while shortwave ridging aloft should suppress
convection a bit more on Saturday. Finally, Sunday looks like it
could be an active day as a progressive and deeper short wave
digging into the Midwest pushes a better-defined front across the
area. Highs Friday through Sunday will be mostly in the 85 to
90 range.

&&
 

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Finally:

<From RAH>

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...

The persistent mid/upper level ridge will maintain its suppressing
influence over central NC through Wednesday with lingering
oppressive high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat indices
around 100 both Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper ridge will be
retreating as a short wave moves into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.
The resulting deeper southwest flow will lead to increased moisture
advection off the gulf into western NC and corresponding increased
PoPs, especially in the western piedmont, on Wednesday afternoon.

Long awaited pattern change initiates Thursday as the frontal zone
which had been hovering ominously west of the Appalachians for the
past week is realigned to an east-west orientation, and then nudged
south into the area as the aforementioned short wave moves across
the mid Atlantic. PoPs will be maximized (at least 50% chance) on
Thursday as the frontal zone creeps very slowly south with lower
thicknesses and cloud coverage producing highs in the mid and upper
80s, with some lower 90s possible in the southern tier counties.

The front will be lingering in the vicinity of the NC/SC border
through the weekend with PoPs graduated accordingly on Friday-30%
north to 50% south, while shortwave ridging aloft should suppress
convection a bit more on Saturday. Finally, Sunday looks like it
could be an active day as a progressive and deeper short wave
digging into the Midwest pushes a better-defined front across the
area. Highs Friday through Sunday will be mostly in the 85 to
90 range.

&&
 

I'm looking forward to the NW flow/ continental airmass pattern change. 

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13 hours ago, Isopycnic said:

I'm looking forward to the NW flow/ continental airmass pattern change. 

I'm right with you....

The 6z GFS still shows the break starting at day 5. After that it doesn't show any 90s for NC (especially N NC) out to day 16. As a bonus it shows a fantasy major hurricane aiming right for the SE coast at the end of the run.   

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2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

I'm right with you....

The 6z GFS still shows the break starting at day 5. After that it doesn't show any 90s for NC (especially N NC) out to day 16. As a bonus it shows a fantasy major hurricane aiming right for the SE coast at the end of the run.   

Ugh. Hurricanes bring more humid weather. Give me Alberta air any day....

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The odds of that hurricane showing up on the next run (...in a few minutes) is low; but we are in that time of year where if we're going to get a hurricane it going to be during the next month / six weeks.  

 

edit: to be fair "that hurricane" is showing up in the eastern Atlantic in the early days of the model runs. The real question is what it does over the long haul.

edit(2): I got tricked. On the 6z GFS the storm in the eastern Atlantic curves away and another storm forms to our SE.

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3 hours ago, Isopycnic said:

Ugh. Hurricanes bring more humid weather. Give me Alberta air any day....

Well, if a weather model is showing a hurricane hitting the SE coast, you don't have anything to worry about!

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The temps at the end of the GFS runs are averaging mid 70's for highs and DP's around 60ish for the last 4-5 days of the run.....even Columbia doesn't hit 80 for a high the last 5 days in the run B)....

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

The temps at the end of the GFS runs are averaging mid 70's for highs and DP's around 60ish for the last 4-5 days of the run.....even Columbia doesn't hit 80 for a high the last 5 days in the run B)....

Football season almost!!!!!!

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2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

The temps at the end of the GFS runs are averaging mid 70's for highs and DP's around 60ish for the last 4-5 days of the run.....even Columbia doesn't hit 80 for a high the last 5 days in the run B)....

It's about time.... This time 3 years ago we were having highs in the 60's and lower 70s. This 90's crap is ridiculous. After enduring this awful summer, we all deserve to be rewarded with a nice cool down.

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I would not count on cooler weather until Mid Sept at the earliest. Already the cooldown we were supposed to be getting in the GSP area is gone, they are forecasting highs right at 90 or better where I am right through day 7 along with lows still above 70. I would say we stay at 90 or above every single day right through mid Sept. 

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1 hour ago, jshetley said:

I would not count on cooler weather until Mid Sept at the earliest. Already the cooldown we were supposed to be getting in the GSP area is gone, they are forecasting highs right at 90 or better where I am right through day 7 along with lows still above 70. I would say we stay at 90 or above every single day right through mid Sept. 

If weather.com is right, tomorrow is our last 90 day through 8-29. Mostly Mid 80s from Aug 19-29.

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7 hours ago, downeastnc said:

The temps at the end of the GFS runs are averaging mid 70's for highs and DP's around 60ish for the last 4-5 days of the run.....even Columbia doesn't hit 80 for a high the last 5 days in the run B)....

:lol:  I won't hold my breath  :P   

 

It is nice to at least see fantasy temps dropping  ^_^   I'm soooo over all of this ******* heat :angry: 

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