Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

[Snowless in Carrollton]

This summer reminds me a lot of 2010. In 2010, temps were hot all the way until the end of September.

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

This summer reminds me a lot of 2010. In 2010, temps were hot all the way until the end of September.

I would gladly take a winter repeat. At least that December:

 And of course we then had this for Christmas:

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20101226/

 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Yeah, 2010-11 winter was a good one. And if I recall correctly, most people were predicting a dud of a winter.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

13 hours ago, FallsLake said:

I would gladly take a winter repeat. At least that December:

 And of course we then had this for Christmas:

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20101226/

 

That's not even accounting for the Christmas storm. We got 11 inches in many places here in WNC.

**EDIT** My apologies, I just saw where you referenced it at the bottom!

[Lookout]

On Sunday, September 04, 2016 at 10:23 AM, toxictwister00 said:

I wonder if Atlanta will tie or break that record of 90 days at or above 90 degrees this summer that was set back in 2011. I think we're at day 74 or 75 now. We still have time, September can be pretty hot too.

Well I today is day 101 as I hit the magic 100 number of 90 degree days  yesterday...after a high yesterday of 96. Today will mark the 90th 90 degree day in athens. The record for them is 117 set way back in 1925. Glancing at the gfs, athens might get close to 100 days...if not it will be awfully close. They practically already have as they had a lot of 88s and 89s early in the season (where as I did manage 90 most of those days which is usually the case since i'm normally 2 or 3 degrees warmer than they are).    Regardless, Considering the average for the athens area is only 57 days, this has been an extraordinarily miserable and hot summer that's for sure. Nearly twice as many of the average of 90 degree days is pretty ridiculous...and truth be told it doesn't reflect completely just how hot it's been after taking into consideration the unusually high humidity and the fact that many of those 90 degree days were 95 or hotter.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

It looks like the La Nina Watch was cancelled. It now appears that ENSO-Neutral conditions are favored for the upcoming winter. I wonder what implication this has on our weather ?

[FallsLake]

10 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

It looks like the La Nina Watch was cancelled. It now appears that ENSO-Neutral conditions are favored for the upcoming winter. I wonder what implication this has on our weather ?

From all the past post (Grit, pack, etc.) this would bold better than a strong nina.

[FallsLake]

The season is slowly changing:

RAH

Depending on how far south the front progresses, will determine how
much convection we will see on Monday but at this point the best
chances should be across the south where forecast soundings remain
fairly moist. Cooler temperatures for sure on Monday with highs in
the low to mid 80s from north to south. Tuesday and Wednesday will
feature a warming trend with diurnal showers and thunderstorms
possible as temperatures climb through the 80s. There are some
differences in timing but both the GFS and the ECMWF model are
keying in on another frontal passage for the end of the week that
will bring a much cooler airmass to the area for the end of the week
that could potentially see high temperatures not make it into the
80s so stay tuned for that.
 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

From all the past post (Grit, pack, etc.) this would bold better than a strong nina.

I'm reading an article that says La Nina tends to lower global average surface temperatures. So I'm wondering, without the presence of La Nina, does that mean this winter will be even warmer than it would with La Nina.

[RubiksDestroyer]

54 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I'm reading an article that says La Nina tends to lower global average surface temperatures. So I'm wondering, without the presence of La Nina, does that mean this winter will be even warmer than it would with La Nina.

No; global temperature anomalies represent net temperature anomalies across the world, which isn't necessarily (and really never is) the same as those same temperature anomalies occuring in every region of the globe. I think the general concept with global temperature fluctuations from El Nino is that El Nino increases tropical convection, which, in turn, circulates warmer temperatures better throughout the entire atmosphere. On the other hand, La Nina means less convection and less temperature transfer.

Despite this, though, local impacts from La Ninas and El Ninos are actually reversed in the Southeast. El Nino supports a stronger subtropical jet, which brings a cooler and wetter pattern. La Ninas feature the opposite, with warmer temperatures and drier weather.

[griteater]

Palmer Drought Severity Index

[jshetley]

From GSP

 

Unfortunately, if you are ready for the end to the hot, dry
summer, your wait will continue for at least another 7-10 days.
With 500mb heights remaining above 590dm through the end of the
period, the late week frontal passage will only offer temporary
relief from the warm temperatures as the sinking air resulting
from the ridge quickly modifies the shallow cooler air behind the
front and temperatures are likely to rebound to normal or above
normal next weekend.

Summer just goes on, just like I expected. It's going to be hot with 90's well into Oct.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

1 hour ago, jshetley said:

From GSP

 

Unfortunately, if you are ready for the end to the hot, dry
summer, your wait will continue for at least another 7-10 days.
With 500mb heights remaining above 590dm through the end of the
period, the late week frontal passage will only offer temporary
relief from the warm temperatures as the sinking air resulting
from the ridge quickly modifies the shallow cooler air behind the
front and temperatures are likely to rebound to normal or above
normal next weekend.

Summer just goes on, just like I expected. It's going to be hot with 90's well into Oct.

How do you get well into October from 7-10 day forecast. It's been hot but it's not going to stay hot. It's going to cool off and I don't suspect we'll be scorching well into next month.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

1 hour ago, jshetley said:

From GSP

 

Unfortunately, if you are ready for the end to the hot, dry
summer, your wait will continue for at least another 7-10 days.
With 500mb heights remaining above 590dm through the end of the
period, the late week frontal passage will only offer temporary
relief from the warm temperatures as the sinking air resulting
from the ridge quickly modifies the shallow cooler air behind the
front and temperatures are likely to rebound to normal or above
normal next weekend.

Summer just goes on, just like I expected. It's going to be hot with 90's well into Oct.

I don't know about where you live, but here in GA its not forecast to get any warmer than 87 after tomorrow. I don't see why it would be any warmer there than it is here . 90s in October is pretty much unheard of and would be a once in a lifetime type event.

[griteater]

13 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I don't know about where you live, but here in GA its not forecast to get any warmer than 87 after tomorrow. I don't see why it would be any warmer there than it is here . 90s in October is pretty much unheard of and would be a once in a lifetime type event.

That's the kind of events that shetley predicts 

Although, Columbia has a record high of 90 as late as Oct 28th.  The latest record high of 90 at Greenville, SC is Oct 9th

[jshetley]

34 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

How do you get well into October from 7-10 day forecast. It's been hot but it's not going to stay hot. It's going to cool off and I don't suspect we'll be scorching well into next month.

It's my opinion that we will see hot weather into Oct this year just like we did in 1986. We had 90-95 degree weather in the Carolinas until around Oct 8th or so that year and i think we repeat that this fall.

Edit: That 1986 heatwave ended abruptly after the 5th and the rest of Oct was very nice with temps not even reaching 80 again at GSP. Hopefully if we do have heat that late this fall, it ends just as quickly.

[LithiaWx]

14 hours ago, griteater said:

Palmer Drought Severity Index

I'm in one of the drought areas.  It's bad.  No way to sugarcoat it.  Most plants and trees show signs of stress.  The rivers, creeks, and lakes are very low.  Heading into the dry season the current conditions are very concerning.  Drought tends to produce more drought through natural feedbacks.  We need a tropical system to come a little farther west than the last one!

[griteater]

22 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

I'm in one of the drought areas.  It's bad.  No way to sugarcoat it.  Most plants and trees show signs of stress.  The rivers, creeks, and lakes are very low.  Heading into the dry season the current conditions are very concerning.  Drought tends to produce more drought through natural feedbacks.  We need a tropical system to come a little farther west than the last one!

Yeah, it's been a terribly hot and dry summer in GA and SC

[WinstonSalemArlington]

There is a good chance that September 10 will stand as the last day reaching 90 degrees in the Triad for the year.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

9 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

There is a good chance that September 10 will stand as the last day reaching 90 degrees in the Triad for the year.

It's looking like the 15th will be the last of 80's here in WNC, at least for the foreseeable future. 

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

It's looking like the 15th will be the last of 80's here in WNC, at least for the foreseeable future. 

Hopefully. This weather is pathetic. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Ding Dong! The Horrible Summer of 2016 is effectively Dead!

 

[downeastnc]

Long range looks good, maybe no more 90's for most of NC from here till spring.....might see a day or two get 88-90 but other than that its looking mid 80's or lower.....DP's also starting to slide into the 60's and the GFS has a big cool down late in the run.....highs in the low to mid 60's on the 00Z run for 3 days at the end of the run.....

[FallsLake]

10 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Long range looks good, maybe no more 90's for most of NC from here till spring.....might see a day or two get 88-90 but other than that its looking mid 80's or lower.....DP's also starting to slide into the 60's and the GFS has a big cool down late in the run.....highs in the low to mid 60's on the 00Z run for 3 days at the end of the run.....

We're getting to the point when it is hot, it's a dry(er) heat. As stated above many areas can still hit 90 well into October; but it has to be a lower humidify type air mass (..strong SW wind, downslope, etc.). Higher humidity air masses take more energy to heat. We're quickly losing the power of that energy source (sun).  

[jshetley]

On 9/12/2016 at 1:39 PM, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Ding Dong! The Horrible Summer of 2016 is effectively Dead!

 

The euro says not so fast. It shows a closed 594 ridge at day 10, with temps hitting 90+ probably all the way to DC. This summer just goes on and on.

[packbacker]

The heat has been relentless.  Avg high at RDU is roughly 80F and low 70's in mid-Oct.  We could be looking at temps in the 80's for a while.

 

 

last 12 months  

 

[Met1985]

Yeah I see no reason to get excited about cool temps across our region because we are centered around a huge high right over us for the foreseeable future. I think this pattern may stick with us right on through the rest of the month. I believe also we see a big delay in cooler weather coming our way. This pattern has just not budged. It sucks but I tell you one thing super El Nino sucks!

[Jaguars]

16 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I see no reason to get excited about cool temps across our region because we are centered around a huge high right over us for the foreseeable future. I think this pattern may stick with us right on through the rest of the month. I believe also we see a big delay in cooler weather coming our way. This pattern has just not budged. It sucks but I tell you one thing super El Nino sucks!

Is the prolonged eastern ridge still due in large part to the recent El Nino?  So tired of this.  Supposed to be 93 here Sunday.  Even in Northern Florida by this point we should only be upper 80s.  I'm sure the western Atlantic bath water isn't helping either but you figure a Canadian air mass has got to slide down at some point?

[jburns]

I found this interesting.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-we-dont-know-if-it-will-be-sunny-next-month-but-we-know-itll-be-hot-all-year/?ex_cid=538twitter

"It is true that predictions of weather — the specific cycles of rain,  temperature and winds — degrade markedly beyond three to five days. While 10-day forecasts are now becoming more common, they are only now approaching the skill of five-day forecasts of 30 years ago. Useful weather forecasts beyond that don’t exist (though plenty of folks are happy to sell them to you).."

[Met1985]

On 9/15/2016 at 7:50 AM, Jaguars said:

Is the prolonged eastern ridge still due in large part to the recent El Nino?  So tired of this.  Supposed to be 93 here Sunday.  Even in Northern Florida by this point we should only be upper 80s.  I'm sure the western Atlantic bath water isn't helping either but you figure a Canadian air mass has got to slide down at some point?

I think this is the doing of the super El Nino of last year. The lag effect maybe that we where flooded with so much warm air last fall and winter that it just continued through the year. The LA nino looks pathetic at best. All I know is that this warmth is going to continue right through the rest of the month.