RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 So many people are concerned about the positive NAO, but wouldnt the negative AO and positive PNA keep the storm off the coast and therefore a colder solution? I think nao is overrated...Esp if we have a nice EPO pna combo. If the west isn't ideal then yea, a -nao helps. But over the past couple winters, I've come to realize I'd rather have better pacific first and foremost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I think nao is overrated...Esp if we have a nice EPO pna combo. If the west isn't ideal then yea, a -nao helps. But over the past couple winters, I've come to realize I'd rather have better pacific first and foremost. EPO/PNA combo is higher importance if you have to pick one...but the last 3 weeks or so should be strong evidence that the NAO is very important too. This cutter, plus the one on 2/3 are prime examples of storms that would have been much bigger winter events if we had a NAO block....or in the case of today, even a transient NAO ridge. We risk more cutters in the upcoming pattern with the +NAO...we'll have the -EPO/+PNA at least, but it's possible we get another storm up the Hudson or through the eastern lakes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I think nao is overrated...Esp if we have a nice EPO pna combo. If the west isn't ideal then yea, a -nao helps. But over the past couple winters, I've come to realize I'd rather have better pacific first and foremost. lol after the past few winters I almost feel the exact opposite. I used to think a -NAO was a suppressed track for us but at least those winters didn't rain 5-6 times in DJF, haha. Whatever has happened lately has been very suppressed except when it rains, so that's about the worst combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 lol after the past few winters I almost feel the exact opposite. I used to think a -NAO was a suppressed track for us but at least those winters didn't rain 5-6 times in DJF, haha. Whatever has happened lately has been very suppressed except when it rains, so that's about the worst combo. Lol. Funny cuz I use to think -nao is the most important factor for snow imby but then past couple winters changed my thinking. I guess recent success or lack there of, alters our view on what indices matter most. Lol.But yea, I think there is a balancing act that works. Good blocking, like Will said, can help off set unfavorable storm tracks but it can also surpress. Then again, great EPO pna combo may result in storms that are perfect for eastern zones ala 2015 and not so good for you or me. Even though I didn't cash in on any big events here recently it still was deep winter with a great pacific so I'll take my chances with it anytime I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Looks like the upcoming big storm has a wide range of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Lol. Funny cuz I use to think -nao is the most important factor for snow imby but then past couple winters changed my thinking. I guess recent success or lack there of, alters our view on what indices matter most. Lol.Oh without a doubt it does. Which is why I'm all for La Niña (2010-2011, 2007-2008) as those have been our snowier winters over the past ten years. This warm ENSO hasn't been getting it done the last couple winters so I now want to take my chance with Nina haha.Keep working it until you find a combo of teleconnections that brings the goods haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Oh without a doubt it does. Which is why I'm all for La Niña (2010-2011, 2007-2008) as those have been our snowier winters over the past ten years. This warm ENSO hasn't been getting it done the last couple winters so I now want to take my chance with Nina haha. Keep working it until you find a combo of teleconnections that brings the goods haha. And at the very least we won't lose to the Mid Atlantic again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Oh without a doubt it does. Which is why I'm all for La Niña (2010-2011, 2007-2008) as those have been our snowier winters over the past ten years. This warm ENSO hasn't been getting it done the last couple winters so I now want to take my chance with Nina haha. Keep working it until you find a combo of teleconnections that brings the goods haha. Ya. Eventually when blocking returns and I'm buried in thigh high snows, I'll claim how awesome -nao is for my hood, hehe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 +PNA +PNA +PNA +PNA +PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 So many people are concerned about the positive NAO, but wouldnt the negative AO and positive PNA keep the storm off the coast and therefore a colder solution? Short answer is probably. People tend to put too much emphasis on the NAO when it's merely a contributing factor that can and often is offset by others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 12z GFS didn't quite do the trick ¬¬ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 12z GFS didn't quite do the trick ¬¬ id rather see it suppressed than showing a cutter at this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Atleast it still shows a storm good enough at this timeframe 12z GFS didn't quite do the trick ¬¬ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 12z GFS is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 But you might in SNE? Never said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Short answer is probably. People tend to put too much emphasis on the NAO when it's merely a contributing factor that can and often is offset by others Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yea gfs wide right but ok signal still there. let's see what gefs and eps brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The Euro isn't going to have a clue this far out either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 GFS lol GFS, save a horse guys don't waste your time fantasizing or getting depressed Well we're in the model thread...it's here folks come to get distraught or elated over 174 hour OP solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I could see that Sunday night wave trending towards advisory type snows for parts of interior SNE. Particularly if it can gain some separation from the initial wave.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 We again run the "too many cooks in the kitchen" risk in the day 6-10 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I could see that Sunday night wave trending towards advisory type snows for parts of interior SNE. Particularly if it can gain some separation from the initial wave.... That could be an interesting evolution with a deeply embedded cold column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 No cold HP to the north concerning to anyone for the 25th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 id rather see it suppressed than showing a cutter at this time frame 6z GEFS had quite a few cutters within the ensemble members so anything is possible at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 No cold HP to the north concerning to anyone for the 25th? What do you mean? There's one extending from central Canada to like western Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 That could be an interesting evolution with a deeply embedded cold column Yeah, would seem to be an elevation setup for a couple inches... BL questionable... In general I just like the look of chilly air in Canada being driven into a relatively zonal and northerly displaced southern jet. Should induce some weak cyclogenesis and scoot east in the wake of the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 What do you mean? There's one extending from central Canada to like western Quebec.Wouldnt that be a bit too far NW though? In terms of its a coastal hugger I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 No I didn't. And the Euro isn't going to have a clue this far out either. Turn that frown upside down Jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Wouldnt that be a bit too far NW though? In terms of its a coastal hugger I mean Day 9 lol wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Wouldnt that be a bit too far NW though? In terms of its a coastal hugger I mean Well if this tried to track up into SNE then yeah, it's a problem...we don't have a frigid high north of Maine. We also don't have any NAO blocking. It will need to take a manageable track...but if it does, it should be plenty cold. If you are describing a track like over the Cape or Islands as "hugger", then I would think that would be fine for the interior...but it always depends on mid-level track too. How stacked the system is. edit: and what ginx said...it's day 9. The synoptics can change many times before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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