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Feb 8th-9th Obs/Discussion Thread


mappy

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More likely that this mimics so many of the storms from pre-2013, in that we get non-accumulating snow during the day with temps/DP around 34/33, and then it whitens up the ground after the sun goes down.

Talking run up and idea we went to WSW before it etc before fail more than actual series of events necessarily. No clue how LWX is going with the numbers they are in the WSW area.. no disrespect to anyone there. :P

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Talking run up and idea we went to WSW before it etc before fail more than actual series of events necessarily. No clue how LWX is going with the numbers they are in the WSW area.. no disrespect to anyone there. :P

I mean they're taking the GFS, RGEM, GGEM, and euro to some extent... All which show those numbers. However the temp situation and climo play a role.
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I mean they're taking the GFS, RGEM, GGEM, and euro to some extent... All which show those numbers. However the temp situation and climo play a role.

Seems like they are forecasting the boom/reasonable worst case to me. Which is fine I suppose but risky. Of those, not sure I'd take any to mean a whole lot. GFS might be the best of the group.. which ... well lol.

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Would like to write off the NAM but it's getting into its wheelhouse now. Just shows how uncertain an event like this can be.

 

Such a contrast to the RGEM, too...when considering meso models.  Is the NAM actually a sort of low-end outlier now?  The other day it was more in line with other models and the GFS was on the relative high end.  Now almost all other guidance trended (last night) to a better event and the NAM goes the other way (or stands its ground, more like).  Ugh!

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No disrespect to LWX, but something doesn't seem right when their maps for max snowfall and most likely range look almost identical (at least north of I-70).

 

I think 3-6" would be a safer call for the northern counties at this point than 6-9"... there's still uncertainty and there'd be more room to adjust higher or lower when things look more clear.

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No disrespect to LWX, but something doesn't seem right when their maps for max snowfall and most likely range look almost identical (at least north of I-70).

 

I think 3-6" would be a safer call for the northern counties at this point than 6-9"... there's still uncertainty and there'd be more room to adjust higher or lower when things look more clear.

 

They're probably tossing the NAM - as they should.  

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Such a contrast to the RGEM, too...when considering meso models. Is the NAM actually a sort of low-end outlier now? The other day it was more in line with other models and the GFS was on the relative high end. Now almost all other guidance trended (last night) to a better event and the NAM goes the other way (or stands its ground, more like). Ugh!

I think it's a real difficult setup. A lot of factors coming together.

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