ThePhotoGuy Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I am just going to pretend this is correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 This is a daytime event with no significant forcing and a Great Lakes low. I'm glad I didn't invest any energy into this one early on. That was smart ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It has almost become comical... A 60X60 mile bulls eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS at hr 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Looks even better at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It has almost become comical... A 60X60 mile bulls eye. Pretty normal with norluns. Lots of history with small but large jackpots. SNE & ME have some doozies in the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS at hr 18 Poor yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 This is going to be a good run. ETA: Mappy jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS at hr 18 those 0.25"/hr snowfall* rates are just going to pile up -- *added to avoid confusion among those who still believe in this event -- my apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Interestingly the RGEM is best after dark tomorrow with subfreezing temps. I'm skeptical as well but that's what the model shows. Did you just move from Arlington, VA to York PA since your last post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It has almost become comical... A 60X60 mile bulls eye. who cares as long as it ends up right over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 those 0.25"/hr rates are just going to pile up -- I'm assuming you're talking about precipitation, and yes, 2" per hour rates of heavy wet snow will really pile up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 those 0.25"/hr rates are just going to pile up --Oh ok glad our mets can read models that show .125 over a 6 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 About the NAM, its not so much that it is awful, but it is not very useful because it is inconsistent. It can have its uses in picking up on convective banding potential and things like that, the problem is it has so much trouble placing features in the correct location that if you use it to rely on where something will be you will bust a lot. Like was just said, people use it wrong. About the storm, this is coming in two peices. I think many are going to get discouraged when the stuff tonight is pretty pathetic. The stuff tonight has the best timing with temps and such but I am not sure its going to have enough intensity to do much for many. Throwing in the towel on what may happen tomorrow with the NORLUN is premature IMO. We all know what the issues are for DC, and yea if the best banding sets up outside the city its going to fail. light to moderate snow with temps in the mid 30s is not going to work. BUT, if one of those convective bands sets up over the city tomorrow, I dont care what time of day it is, if its ripping 2"/hr and sitting stationary like the RGEM and some of the "Better" short range guidance suggests, its going to accumulate, urban heat island hell or not. I would HATE to have to issue a forecast on this for DC. Given the known issues of course I would lean towards the lower end and I could see a total fail, but at the same time if the banding with the trough sets up over them I could also easily see 4-5" in DC and it wouldnt shock me at all. Just realize that the bust risk is high on both ends and dont expect much but hope for a pleasent surprise. it would stun me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 those 0.25"/hr rates are just going to pile up -- at 36 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 12z 4km Nam has 0 snow from DC to Loudoun and 0.5-2" for I-70 and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Oh ok glad our mets can read models that show .125 over a 6 hour period. not strong with the sarcasm are we -- snowfall rates buddy snowfall rates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS at hr 18 moderate ra/sn at 38 degrees should be fun tonight. I'm glad it is happening before bed time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 DC gets 0.7" of precipitation this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS is really cold tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 who cares as long as it ends up right over us My fear is when it doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 not strong with the sarcasm are we -- snowfall rates buddy snowfall rates...Oh the sarcasm is what I wasn't happy with. If it shows .3-.35 in 6 hours that's half inch+ rates in simple math terms. But I am a pea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 it would stun me I will defer to you with everything climo related in DC, and it is probably less of a probability then perhaps the tone of my post let on, but I am thinking of Nov 87 as an example of how if you get good banding with a convective feature to set up over the city, even with marginal temps it can work out. Your probably right in that its a "hitting the lottery" type thing, but at least you have a ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 its so hard to buy what the gfs is selling IMBY. its the only model giving me near 1" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 odd that the GFS is so much stronger with the first wave tonight which is more synoptic scale in a way. It places the norlun over our area with part 2 but is pretty weak sauce with it, but that may be expected with a global. Our best case dream scenario would be to get the GFS part 1 and the RGEM part 2. I can dream can't I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS is really cold tomorrow... It really deepens the low quick...that would be realistic if it's right...backing winds to more northerly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 its so hard to buy what the gfs is selling IMBY. its the only model giving me near 1" qpf. Don't forget the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 its so hard to buy what the gfs is selling IMBY. its the only model giving me near 1" qpf. The RGEM is also. I think you will be one of the few in this sub forum to do well. I think i will be lucky to see 4" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Oh the sarcasm is what I wasn't happy with. If it shows .3-.35 in 6 hours that's half inch+ rates in simple math terms. But I am a pea sorry next time I'll just blindly take the qpf assign a 10:1 ratio with those sfc temps to make you feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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