yoda Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 You mean the one it has off the Carolina coast on Day 7? Yes, its very weak and the such... looks nothing like any of the other global models ETA: psuhoffman did a better job describing why it looks weak above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Gotta say otherwise the LR pattern isn't really cooperating as I'd hoped. Weeklies go to week 6 now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 GFS pulled a scott norwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Weekend cold looks pretty legit though backing down a little as we close. Record soundings for Feb are about -25C at 850mb (since 1948). Could get close. single digit lows subday should be attainable. The near or slightly below 0 lows the euro had been showing seemed extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 GGEM has a decent thump, goes from snow to either sleet or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 If I am reading the model right, 12z UKIE would be a cutter, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I really, really just want one more shot at tracking a major threat. Hopefully by early March we have a decent pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 GGEM has a decent thump, goes from snow to either sleet or freezing rain. 168 to 192 evolution is interesting 168 -- 1003 mb near ORF 180 -- 990 mb offshore ACY ~150-200 miles 192 -- 965 mb in N VT/N NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The western atlantic ridge really flexes leading into the potential but the airmass exiting is a beast. I would think even a flip event would do something. Gotta root for the storm (if there is one) to not drag it's feet. There is nothing showing up to lock the cold high in place. maybe we can get a similar thump to what we got last late february when it was just so cold that the bad track didnt matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Gotta say otherwise the LR pattern isn't really cooperating as I'd hoped. Weeklies go to week 6 now? I've thought for a while we would have to go through a relax before ridging rebuilds where we want it over Canada. Looks like it's not too bad and then things should get good. By day 15 I like how things look upstream in Alaska and Canada to reload. But feb 18-24 is probably meh. Hopefully we can score something before then wait for our juiced up gulf low late feb or early March then our crazy cut off March 58 replay mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 maybe we can get a similar thump to what we got last late february when it was just so cold that the bad track didnt matter I've been saying this for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The good news is the para euro is a miller A. The bad news is it takes to long to get up the coast. Still a couple inches with the front end but then a depressing progression. Other than the temps, the track is a monster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 If I am reading the model right, 12z UKIE would be a cutter, no? Yep, HP off the NE coast and a deep trough....that would surely cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I doubt it Yoda ...trough still positive at 144 ..probably a front end to mix ..my guess Respectfully disagree. Look @ where the HP is. That is SE wind hell. Yeah, @ the 144 frame the trough is positive, but there is nothing in SE Canada to keep it that way, it would QUICKLY cut. Doesn't mean there can't be a thump, but the Ukie is not what you want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yup, this pretty much sums up what the problem is, at least from last night's run. Good explanation. Unfortunately the "pretty blue ball" is off the southern tip of Greenland, instead of near 50/50 with some nice blocking showing up northeast of there. Oh well. We'll most likely have to hope we can make the best of an imperfect setup. Maybe something like last February, when we were spotted a 20 degree buffer? Unless things change a bit for the better. Lots to see in the upcoming days.I'm thinking about the same thing from last year. Non-ideal setup, but so cold that it didn't matter, lol If I had to bet, I'd bet it could be the same case again if it's timed right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 So, are we looking for that magical "good" pattern again? Two weeks ago weren't we talking about it being here soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yep, HP off the NE coast and a deep trough....that would surely cut. GGEM has a decent thump, goes from snow to either sleet or freezing rain. If I am reading the model right, 12z UKIE would be a cutter, no? I doubt it Yoda ...trough still positive at 144 ..probably a front end to mix ..my guess Yep, HP off the NE coast and a deep trough....that would surely cut. Good news. At least cutters produce precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Alright what's next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Good news. At least cutters produce precipitation. Yeah, at this point, I'm just focused on having a storm in the vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This is a different setup but the cold could help in forcing the track towards the coast. From range models might miss it but it's gonna be hard for a low to cut up into that airmass. Looking at the ggem for instance. Typically when a storm starts as snow all the way down to nc we don't have to worry about a major changeover. Ending as drizzle and dry slot sure but how often do we get 6" of shoe then a driving rainstorm. It can happen but less likely then the low taking a track of less resistance towards the warmer water off the coast. ETA: to be clear I see the issues with ridging northeast of us and why this would and could try to cut but at the same time I can see how this could be forced easy enough that we thump with the cold abd by the time it warms up we just dry slot or its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 This is a different setup but the cold could help in forcing the track towards the coast. From range models might miss it but it's gonna be hard for a low to cut up into that airmass. Looking at the ggem for instance. Typically when a storm starts as snow all the way down to nc we don't have to worry about a major changeover. Ending as drizzle and dry slot sure but how often do we get 6" of shoe then a driving rainstorm. It can happen but less likely then the low taking a track of less resistance towards the warmer water off the coast. ETA: to be clear I see the issues with ridging northeast of us and why this would and could try to cut but at the same time I can see how this could be forced easy enough that we thump with the cold abd by the time it warms up we just dry slot or its over. Outside of a major coastal, what you just described is my ideal storm. They never disappoint on the precip side, and the cold is usually more potent than is modeled, especially this time of the season. And, truthfully, I like it when snow gets a coating of sleet and freezing drizzle on it. Gives it staying power. Edit: And you're right. They almost always transition to a period of drizzle/freezing drizzle and then nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This is a different setup but the cold could help in forcing the track towards the coast. From range models might miss it but it's gonna be hard for a low to cut up into that airmass. Looking at the ggem for instance. Typically when a storm starts as snow all the way down to nc we don't have to worry about a major changeover. Ending as drizzle and dry slot sure but how often do we get 6" of shoe then a driving rainstorm. It can happen but less likely then the low taking a track of less resistance towards the warmer water off the coast. ETA: to be clear I see the issues with ridging northeast of us and why this would and could try to cut but at the same time I can see how this could be forced easy enough that we thump with the cold abd by the time it warms up we just dry slot or its over. I don't think we've ever gotten 6 inches of shoe, but there's always a first time. I hope its not high heels though. On a serious note, I agree with most of what you're saying. I'd be fine with a thump and then a switchover to drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I think the last time a decent snowfall changed over to a driving rainstorm was Dec 13, 2003... I was out of town and I have no regrets about missing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The GEM is a coastal hugger. Not ideal obviously for temp issues. But at least there is a real storm there to track instead of this garbage we are dealing with today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 GEFS are quite supportive of the event and most members do give us some snow. Evolution similar to the 0z euro with the vort digging deep enough and sparking a coastal or runner. Would be a shame to waste what will almost surely be the coldest air of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I think the last time a decent snowfall changed over to a driving rainstorm was Dec 13, 2003... I was out of town and I have no regrets about missing it. It was only a couple inches maybe 3. It wasn't like having 6 or 7 wiped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 So, are we looking for that magical "good" pattern again? Two weeks ago weren't we talking about it being here soon? We actually are in a great pattern today, we just got severely unlucky on how both of these lows (the one yesterday & today) interacted. The setup we just experienced could have delivered a MECS. We had a 970mb low at our latitude out in the Atlantic with a HP in a good spot, we just got screwed that it just didn't turn negative and/or phase in time. Then today's system could have blown up but the spacing between the 2 just didn't allow for it. Just because you have a good pattern doesn't mean you cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I think the last time a decent snowfall changed over to a driving rainstorm was Dec 13, 2003... I was out of town and I have no regrets about missing it. yea I was actually thinking of that exact event as the only time I can remember such a thing. That was a weird situation though. There was a waa burst associated with a frontrunner wave. Then a lull before the main show which was an inland runner. I also remember the snow from wave 1 was northern va north. I can't remember any event where it started as snow in Charlotte and Raleigh nc and changed to significant rain here. Now if the models are wrong about how much low level cold there is sure but if they are right about where the thermal boundary will be at the start I doubt it warms fast enough to prevent major accumulation first here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 It was only a couple inches maybe 3. It wasn't like having 6 or 7 wiped out. it was actually more then that, around 5-6" where I was in northern va but I posted above how it was weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 GGEM is trying for a 2/13/2014 but it still needs some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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