tamarack Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 About -5 at my place. The breeze never quit overnight, so things stayed well mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 can Lake Champlain make Lake Effect Snow? Sometimes. There was an all-day lake effect dusting in Burlington this year. Just snowed lightly all day off the warm lake- pretty unusual for Burlington and westerly winds. It's usually more confined to south of Burlington towards charlotte Vergennes with NNW winds and enough fetch over the lake.I posted this back in Jan, but this was on Jan 4th during that mini LES event south of BTV. I was driving up to BTV for work and drove right into the squalls coming south off the lake. This was right near Vergennes. It was like 4F with S+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 7.3" for the week. 4" current depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grambo Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Models still waffling with the track of Tuesdays storm? I see the 12z GFS is like 3 feet of snow for BTV. Argh the suspense is killing me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I posted this back in Jan, but this was on Jan 4th during that mini LES event south of BTV. I was driving up to BTV for work and drove right into the squalls coming south off the lake. This was right near Vergennes. It was like 4F with S+. 2016-01-04 13.44.41.jpg 2016-01-04 13.43.04.jpg That's pretty cool! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Models still waffling with the track of Tuesdays storm? I see the 12z GFS is like 3 feet of snow for BTV. Argh the suspense is killing me! Good. Nothing good comes without a little hard times. Today was spectacular. Bluebird morning. Copious amounts of powder. Light but settled. Still no base. We really need some dense mostly frozen precipitation. Tuesday could really help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Will be a bit chilly in Saranac Lake tomorrow night. You know the airmass is impressive when it can drop to -29 with cloudy skies and decent winds. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -29. Wind chill values as low as -46. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph. We had a similar event in the northwest suburbs of Chicago back on 1/6/14. Temp of -17 just after sunrise with cloudy skies and 20 mph winds, with about 10" of snow cover. Truly astounding for that part of the world - it felt like the arctic tundra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Reached a high of 4 on Killington Peak today. This is the "warm" day. Should be interesting next 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I posted in the other tread too. What in the heck is going on with the 18Z GFS? Takes a deep storm we have been tracking for days and just makes it into a wave. Then develops a new storm behind it. Much better run than we have been seeing but I can't remember such a huge change in a run, especially with all the models forecasting a big cutter. Yeah, 100 mile shifts, sure. I smell something fishy? Any thoughts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 VT peeps, Arctic front looks very intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Thought it's supposed to get cold tonight? 12.2f here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Thought it's supposed to get cold tonight? 12.2f here. Tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Well now that it really is shaping up to be a total loss this winter, next year can't get here quick enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 VT peeps, Arctic front looks very intense Yeah picked up 2-3" of wind-blown pow at the mountain last night. Only a half inch at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Well now that it really is shaping up to be a total loss this winter, next year can't get here quick enough. Just gotta move past it dude, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Just gotta move past it dude, haha. It's really quite incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's really quite incredible. I've accepted the fate towards the end of January. By that point it was just way too much to make up, no matter how well it turned around. All-time record low max snow depth on Mansfield is 48". We still need two more feet of snowpack just to get to that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Event totals: 0.8” Snow/0.03” L.E. The arctic front dropped 0.8” of snow here – certainly big enough flakes for plenty of loft. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 26.7 Snow Density: 3.8% H2O Temperature: 9.1 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Its a shame its so cold...or at least its not even that cold yet. -10F near the summits now and 0F at the base.... that's a warm day compared to last February when the average low was -10F at MVL. The skiing is so freaking good this morning on the groomers. Its true packed powder with 2-3" of wind blown pow on top. Literally the Saturday public's favorite skiing conditions...not enough snow that its overwhelming or leads to bumps and piles, but just enough to give that floating sensation on the groomers. Ungroomed is still pow on top of moon-scape...but man those 60 trails groomed last night are just in prime form. Unfortunately we get these conditions and mother nature now decides it should be 30-below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Well now that it really is shaping up to be a total loss this winter, next year can't get here quick enough. I don’t even get this, since of course the season was not a “total loss” considering we’ve had snow, ski days, cold weather, etc. etc. But now?... on some random day in the middle of February… it’s suddenly shaping up to be a total loss? Why all of a sudden the drama when there are two potential winter storms on the way next week? AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 638 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 449 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND RACES NORTHEAST WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND THE RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS TRACKS SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NEW HAMPSHIRE ON TUESDAY...WHILE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE WESTERN TRACK UP THROUGH NEW YORK STATE. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC THINKING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERIOD OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...PTYPE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. DURING TUESDAY HOWEVER...ENOUGH WARMING EXPECTED FOR A CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN RAIN...DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL LOW TRACK. QPF MAY REACH 1 TO PERHAPS EVEN 2 INCHES...SO POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...RAIN OR MIXED PCPN. SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER REGION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. NEXT SHORTWAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES FRIDAY HOWEVER...BRINGING CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I don’t even get this, since of course the season was not a “total loss” considering we’ve had snow, ski days, cold weather, etc. etc. But now?... on some random day in the middle of February… it’s suddenly shaping up to be a total loss? Why all of a sudden the drama when there are two potential winter storms on the way next week? AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 638 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 449 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND RACES NORTHEAST WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND THE RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS TRACKS SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NEW HAMPSHIRE ON TUESDAY...WHILE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE WESTERN TRACK UP THROUGH NEW YORK STATE. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC THINKING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERIOD OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...PTYPE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. DURING TUESDAY HOWEVER...ENOUGH WARMING EXPECTED FOR A CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN RAIN...DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL LOW TRACK. QPF MAY REACH 1 TO PERHAPS EVEN 2 INCHES...SO POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...RAIN OR MIXED PCPN. SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER REGION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. NEXT SHORTWAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES FRIDAY HOWEVER...BRINGING CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. I was defining that statement with regard to warning criteria snowfall. I suppose there is still an outside shot with this low but it is looking like a good portion of that QPF will be in the form of rain or a mix here after the initial front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I've accepted the fate towards the end of January. By that point it was just way too much to make up, no matter how well it turned around. All-time record low max snow depth on Mansfield is 48". We still need two more feet of snowpack just to get to that point. I was done hoping to get a good seasonal snowfall or snowpack, but I'm still hoping for a good second half, but that is appearing less and less likely. I was so excited Thursday morning. The storm on Tuesday would be just perfect timing for me. I was going to stay up to ski while my wife/daughter went home, and a ski buddy would come up. Now that's in the crapper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z GFS looked too perfect for me on Tuesday to actually verify. Glad to see the 06 was far more disappointing looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I don’t even get this, since of course the season was not a “total loss” considering we’ve had snow, ski days, cold weather, etc. etc. But now?... on some random day in the middle of February… it’s suddenly shaping up to be a total loss? Why all of a sudden the drama when there are two potential winter storms on the way next week? agreed. It's a tough pattern... but being wholly negative about everything doesn't do much for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 agreed. It's a tough pattern... but being wholly negative about everything doesn't do much for anything. Yeah, It's a rough winter. It is. But you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I didn't realize how easy attaching a photo was with the iPad. Here's a ginx quality snap of an odd shallow squall that has engulfed the sandwich range. Nothing on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Well. That's a bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 hahahahaha Take your pics with the home button to the right or bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Haha of course I tried to flip my phone around to look at it but the phone is too smart and keeps rotating the photo away from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Man did the bottom just drop out here, -4 to -13 in the past 90 minutes, how low will we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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