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mreaves

NNE Winter. Will it ever snow again?

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The cold air is holding serve here in lower Champlain Valley.  We haven't budged above 34 all day.

 

I think some of it is downsloping easterlies and the colder lake as well. I was in Essex and it was 51 and while it was 38 at Oakledge Park according to my car. The wunderground map shows this spread.

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This should easily be a net gain.. What fell overnight had a good heft to it.

Finally temp moving up steadily, it's 44 now.

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I think some of it is downsloping easterlies and the colder lake as well. I was in Essex and it was 51 and while it was 38 at Oakledge Park according to my car. The wunderground map shows this spread.

There's also no wind here to mix the warm air aloft down to the surface. 

 

Rutland is currently 52F with SE winds 15 and gusts to 31. 

Middlebury, 56F, S 21, G 43

Burlington, 52F, S 18, G 28

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There's also no wind here to mix the warm air aloft down to the surface. 

 

Rutland is currently 52F with SE winds 15 and gusts to 31. 

Middlebury, 56F, S 21, G 43

Burlington, 52F, S 18, G 28

 

Yeah that is definitely part of it too and the southerlies just kicked in so the lake shore should begin to torch as well up here.

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You guys are all Debbie Downers!!  

 

Anyhow the wind is really roaring and increasing up here on the hill. I like when the forest makes that roaring sounds. Snow fog is racing across the fields.  Up to 44F but a tough snowpack with last nights glaze.  Here's a quick timelapse of the current conditions.  This is over a 10 minute period just ended.

 

https://video.nest.com/clip/442753e931d94462a4c9f95852693dee.mp4

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I just saw a facebook post from a friend six miles to my east, same elevation.  He's at 50 degrees with ripping winds.  Still calm here, but fog is forming.  Temp up slightly to 36F.

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Event totals: 3.0” Snow/0.63” L.E.

 

We had a final tenth of an inch of sleet before the precipitation shut off, and by noontime observations some light rain had started.  The accumulation on the board was still mostly the partially melted sleet, so these observations should make a decent cutoff for the front end frozen portion of the storm (0.63” of liquid).

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches (sleet)

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 1.7

Snow Density: 60.0% H2O

Temperature: 35.4 F

Sky: Light Rain

Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

 

I got the same report from SB.  Not for 'nothing, but is it possible we see a net gain on the mtns from this.  3" of cement could be somewhat helpful.

 

It would seem like a net gain in the pack is certainly possible in the mountains – I wouldn’t even be surprised if we got a net gain down here in the valley. This storm just put almost 2/3” of frozen liquid equivalent into the snowpack down here, and a few hours of rain isn’t going to evaporate that; two thirds of an inch is hefty – I typically run the snow thrower for anything more than a half inch of liquid depending on how the pattern goes, but I definitely ran it today.  We had other snowpack on the driveway as well though, since I don’t think I’ve needed to run the snow thrower since back in January.

 

Our updated point forecast from the BTV NWS doesn’t seem that daunting to the snowpack – a tenth to a quarter inch of rain (plus whatever we got ahead of that period) and then back below freezing tonight with a chance for snow showers.  I guess the projected high of 51 F is probably the most deleterious part, but we’re currently still in the lower 40s F here:

 

This Afternoon

Rain. High near 51. Southeast wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

 

Tonight

Rain and snow before 1am, then a chance of snow showers between 1am and 3am. Low around 27. Southwest wind 8 to 13 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

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I just saw a facebook post from a friend six miles to my east, same elevation.  He's at 50 degrees with ripping winds.  Still calm here, but fog is forming.  Temp up slightly to 36F.

 

Lots of small meso-scale temperature changes around here too.  I just drove to Morrisville and back for some errands, and holy cow was the wind strong on RT 100 once out of Stowe and into Morrisville.  Temperatures were all over the place, from 41F to 53F depending on the hollow or roll in the road, haha.

 

I've got 44F at home with dead calm winds at home, while MVL is in the low 50s and gusting into the 40s.

 

Crazy how its dead calm here but consistently gusting 40mph at the ASOS.

 

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SLK from -30F to +49F in like 36 hours, lol.

 

Beats my 75F in 33 hr in Ft. Kent (though that occurred without any warm-front precip.)

 

Warmth has finally reached the home front.  Hope it's softened the ice on the (well-crowned) secondary road that approaches my place.  Otherwise, the right-side snowbank is calling.

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Holy crap!  I didn't realize you were that far ahead of me up here, lol.  I just hit 31.5" today.  This is probably one of the larger spreads as a percentage that the two of us have seen in a few winters.

 

Looking at the snow tally, J.Spin's superior location among us VT'ers at this latitude is quite obvious:

 

J.Spin...50.1"

Myself...31.5"

klw...26.1"

eyewall...25.7"

 

Yeah PF, our two locations do seem to be having a larger snowfall disparity than usual this season – I’ve got my current list of individual storm totals cut from my spreadsheet below.  I think one of the big ones contributing to the disparity is what we got close to a foot out of that mid-January combination of the upper level low/inverted trough and upslope.

 

16FEB16C.jpg

 

Even after today’s event we’re still running at less than 50% of average snowfall however (46.9%) and the stats say we’re back down into the bottom 2% of snowfall seasons.

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Cool photo from a friend at Mad River Glen looking northward at the Green Mountain Spine.  You can clearly see the cold, dense air locked in to the east (right) of the Spine displayed as fog/low clouds, while the west side is cleared out, well-mixed, and probably about 5-10F warmer.

 

12748037_10208951407130369_5285984972916

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Yeah PF, our two locations do seem to be having a larger snowfall disparity than usual this season – I’ve got my current list of individual storm totals cut from my spreadsheet below.  I think one of the big ones contributing to the disparity is what we got close to a foot out of that mid-January combination of the upper level low/inverted trough and upslope.

 

16FEB16C.jpg

 

Even after today’s event we’re still running at less than 50% of average snowfall however (46.9%) and the stats say we’re back down into the bottom 2% of snowfall seasons.

 

Yeah the ones that jump out at me immediately looking at my records are January 12th (I had 3.5" to your 7.3"); January 18th (I had 5.7" over 48 hours, while you've got 11.2" there); and February 8th (1.2" to your 5.4").  Those alone account for over a foot of the difference...and all of them involved block flow upslope I think.

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Feel like I just lived a week.  What a strange day.  Woke to 2" new and freezing rain, they closed schools here for the day, icing was pretty horrific for the AM commute.  Ran the snow blower to avoid a slop refreeze, skied 3-4" of velvet at Jay, and now just got home from work to 50F, pouring rain, and all the snow in the yard gone, again.  I don't recall a February day like it, ever. We lack snow but are getting heaps and heaps of bizarro.

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I literally sat in my house with the shades closed most of the day. I snowblowed this morning when it was still somewhat wintry and made a quick run to the library and store but I have tried to look outside as little as possible. What I have seen is not pretty.

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I literally sat in my house with the shades closed most of the day. I snowblowed this morning when it was still somewhat wintry and made a quick run to the library and store but I have tried to look outside as little as possible. What I have seen is not pretty.

And the outlook through mid next week is fairly mild with little, if any snow.

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And the outlook through mid next week is fairly mild with little, if any snow.

I think I've moved on. I'm taking a somewhat Zen attitude. It is what it is. I can't do anything about it. I can just exist.

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SLK plummeted from 49F to 31F in two hours, now down to 26F. The FROPA is on the move. Saw Mansfield just started dropping from 37F to 33F in 5-10 minutes.

It's too late. It's all gone

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It's too late. It's all gone Well, at least most of it in my yard is. Down in the valley the snow (what little there was to begin with)seems to have held on better.

 

We lost it all real quick. It never had a chance in this furnace.

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Event totals: 3.0” Snow/1.29” L.E.

 

The temperature has been dropping all through the evening and it’s down into the mid 30s F now, so I just went out and shoveled the dense snow off the deck because I don’t think it’s going anywhere at this point.  I emptied the rain gauge and found 0.66” of liquid in it since the frozen precipitation stopped, so up to this point the storm has been roughly 50/50 frozen/liquid.  The radar suggests that precipitation is back over to snow in this area but I’m not seeing anything reaching down to our elevation in the valley.

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Man I feel for you guys. What a NNE ratter. Never seen anything like it.

Verdant lawns in mid February, PF praying for a few 3-5" events, JFK and environs eclipsing much of Vt's season in a single storm... I'd be livid. Or maybe I'd have moved onto acceptance.

Regardless, godspeed to you folks.

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Man I feel for you guys. What a NNE ratter. Never seen anything like it.

Verdant lawns in mid February, PF praying for a few 3-5" events, JFK and environs eclipsing much of Vt's season in a single storm... I'd be livid. Or maybe I'd have moved onto acceptance.

Regardless, godspeed to you folks.

We're in a tough spot, danstorm.  Keep hoping and praying for a good storms through mid-March, and we'll have our hopes dashed.  Or give up, accept things, and look for early warmth, and we'll have three weeks of dry bone-chilling cold set it.  Either way, not a fun spot to be in.

 

These snow to rain cutters are cruel beasts.  1.23" of melted water, here, nothing but a sheet of ice left on the ground to show for the first half dump.

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