Jns2183 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I believe I remember someone mention that Horst mentioned he believed the anomalous warm SST on the East Coast would pull the low NW. I understand the basics of baroclinic zones, but why would this be true? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I believe I remember someone mention that Horst mentioned he believed the anomalous warm SST on the East Coast would pull the low NW. I understand the basics of baroclinic zones, but why would this be true? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I'm no met (by any means) but it could possibly be similar to a tropical storm where the warm waters enhance the storm causing it to build more in the directions of the heat property and the lack of a real kicker to push the system off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I believe I remember someone mention that Horst mentioned he believed the anomalous warm SST on the East Coast would pull the low NW. I understand the basics of baroclinic zones, but why would this be true? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk My guess would be warmer ssts would reduce the air pressure. that reduced pressure would pull in the higher pressure storm. just a guess. keep in mind that stronger storms will have increased winds because the the higher pressure is pulled into the lower pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 03z SREF is interesting. The first image is the mean low at 15z Saturday. The second image at 03z Sunday. Look at the uncertainty and the directions it expands. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA330 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016PAZ024>028-220000-/O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0001.160123T0000Z-160124T1200Z/CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN330 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGHSUNDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGHSUNDAY MORNING.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE.* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING. THE PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SNOW ENDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. STAY TUNED TO NOAAWEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FORTHE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Euro ensemble mean looked pretty decent for the southern half of PA, certainly a good bit better than the Euro op did tonight. 03z SREF plumes are through the roof in the south. KAOO for example has a mean of about 21", with 13 members (half) that have more than that (up to 40" with one outlier at 46"). Further north, while State College has a 10" mean, IPT has about a 7" or so mean, and AVP has around a 9" mean they all have a much more significant split, with a cluster of much higher accums and a lot of members with minor snow or nothing. MDT, THV, and LNS had means of 14-17". Are they probably being extreme? Certainly....but it remains a signal that the southern half of the state below I-80 is still very much in the game for warning snows. I've personally seen enough tonight that I could see CTP maybe justifying extending their winter storm watch to include the next tier of central counties (Cambria, Blair, Huntingdon, Mifflin, Juniata, Perry) and well nevermind that thought... they just did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Euro ensemble mean looked pretty decent for the southern half of PA, certainly a good bit better than the Euro op did tonight. 03z SREF plumes are through the roof in the south. KAOO for example has a mean of about 21", with 13 members (half) that have more than that (up to 40" with one outlier at 46"). State College has a 10" mean, IPT has about a 7" or so mean, and AVP has around a 9" mean they all have a much more significant split, with a cluster of much higher accums and a lot of members with minor snow or nothing. MDT, THV, and LNS had means of 14-17". Are they probably being extreme? Certainly....but it remains a signal that the southern half of the state below I-80 is still very much in the game for warning snows. I've personally seen enough tonight that I could see CTP maybe justifying extending their winter storm watch to include the next tier of central counties (Cambria, Blair, Huntingdon, Mifflin, Juniata, Perry) and well nevermind that thought... they just did it. KPIT went straight to an advisory for Allegheny, Westmoreland, and already warned south of there Advisory is for 3-6, so pretty obvious they tossed the euro. NAM held serve at 6z, and SREF's out our way are now up over a foot. I was only 11 in 1996, but this must have been what I felt like to watch the models 20 years ago as everything expanded north in the last 2 days. I went to bed the night before expecting 2-4 inches, only to wake up to a forecast of 10-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 KPIT went straight to an advisory for Allegheny, Westmoreland, and already warned south of there Advisory is for 3-6, so pretty obvious they tossed the euro. NAM held serve at 6z, and SREF's out our way are now up over a foot. I was only 11 in 1996, but this must have been what I felt like to watch the models 20 years ago as everything expanded north in the last 2 days. I went to bed the night before expecting 2-4 inches, only to wake up to a forecast of 10-20. This is also what happened in the couple days before the Feb 5-6, 2010 storm. Although I don't think this one is going to fully pull off what that one did across southern Penn, at least in your neck of the woods... as this storm has a bit of a different trajectory coming up from the Gulf states and up the coast vs the flatter 2010 storm track. Still got another full day of modeling yet before it's time for the near term stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Euro ensemble mean looked pretty decent for the southern half of PA, certainly a good bit better than the Euro op did tonight. 03z SREF plumes are through the roof in the south. KAOO for example has a mean of about 21", with 13 members (half) that have more than that (up to 40" with one outlier at 46"). Further north, while State College has a 10" mean, IPT has about a 7" or so mean, and AVP has around a 9" mean they all have a much more significant split, with a cluster of much higher accums and a lot of members with minor snow or nothing. MDT, THV, and LNS had means of 14-17". Are they probably being extreme? Certainly....but it remains a signal that the southern half of the state below I-80 is still very much in the game for warning snows. I've personally seen enough tonight that I could see CTP maybe justifying extending their winter storm watch to include the next tier of central counties (Cambria, Blair, Huntingdon, Mifflin, Juniata, Perry) and well nevermind that thought... they just did it. I wanted to use the nam to illustrate where I think the op euro went wrong. At this point it's 3 hours off on timing but the euro and nam have an identical slp location. If anything the ec is slightly inside the nam. But the nam doesn't develop that second low to the east after this and regardless of that the ec at this stage with the same slp is struggling to get snow into the border counties while the nam is dumping all the way past 78. The ec didn't shift south with the track it just has a contracted qpf field and it may or may not be due to how it develops a secondary convection induced slp but either way it seems wrong given all other guidance and an stj juiced system. If the low gets to the mouth of the chesapeake like that I think the cutoff of heavy snow is between 78 and 80 not the turnpike or south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Thanks for the reassuring post, psu! I certainly hope most or all of us in Central PA can pull this one off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Getting ready to head into work. Sounds like overall good trends last night...save the Euro OP. That 2nd low popping to the east on it just makes it "wonky" to me. Like PSU said...focus on the track....not the nuances of each model run. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 State College in our area goes to 12 plus....although EURO/GFS says otherwise right now. PAZ033>036-057-059-063>066-220000-/O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0001.160123T0000Z-160124T1200Z/SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER330 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENINGTHROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...12 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW BEGINS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SNOW ENDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. STAY TUNED TO NOAAWEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FORTHE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Our latest thinking. Totals south could come up, or get trimmed if there's mixing. Farther north, gradient may get squeezed more. We will see. www.Facebook.com/stormteamwgal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 image.jpeg Our latest thinking. Totals south could come up, or get trimmed if there's mixing. Farther north, gradient may get squeezed more. We will see. www.Facebook.com/stormteamwgal Thanks Matt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 image.jpeg Our latest thinking. Totals south could come up, or get trimmed if there's mixing. Farther north, gradient may get squeezed more. We will see. www.Facebook.com/stormteamwgal Very reasonable map. I wouldn't want to be you guys, this gradient, wow. Thanks Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Definite squeeze play between dry air and mix line but someone is going to be hammered in between. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 image.jpeg Our latest thinking. Totals south could come up, or get trimmed if there's mixing. Farther north, gradient may get squeezed more. We will see. www.Facebook.com/stormteamwgal 0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Today is the today hope to find some sort of consensus now that the hi-res shorter range models are in their range. The last 2 days have been a roller coaster ride for MDT on north. If you believe the 0z EURO and even now the 6z GFS outside of extreme Southern PA this is a 6" or less snowstorm. DC, VA fairly easy forecast, there has been no real change regardless of model output. Up here, NYC what a tough forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR POSSIBLE BLIZZARD AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS INVOF LANCASTER COUNTY WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. bring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Was the 6z GFS really back south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Was the 6z GFS really back south? I didn't think so. Looks like confluence really squeezed the north side. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Did anybody else see CTP's map this morninv? They have a foot plus as far north as Huntingdon and parts of Juniata counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 image.jpeg Our latest thinking. Totals south could come up, or get trimmed if there's mixing. Farther north, gradient may get squeezed more. We will see. www.Facebook.com/stormteamwgal Good map Matt!! I like the placement of the axis' of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Did anybody else see CTP's map this morninv? They have a foot plus as far north as Huntingdon and parts of Juniata counties Time sensitive: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CTP is very bullish. Unusual for them, hope they're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CTP is very bullish. Unusual for them, hope they're right! Well ok then. Yea, very bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 CTP is very bullish. Unusual for them, hope they're right! Well ok then. Yea, very bullish THE MAIN DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH THE 21/0000Z GUIDANCE STILL REVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE PRECIP SHIELD ON THE NW-SIDE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. THE NAM/SREF/CMC ARE GENERALLY MORE ROBUST AND FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE REACHING THE NEW YORK BORDER. MEANWHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS ONLY GO TO ABOUT THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT TO I-80. COLLECTIVELY THE 00Z MODELS SEEMED TO TREND A JUST TAD NORTHWARD WITH THE QPF WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN THE WPC WINTER WEATHER SNOWFALL GUIDANCE. THIS TREND ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WAS THE REASON FOR EXPANDING THE WATCH TO COVER CAMBRIA TO JUNIATA COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR HEAVY...DOUBLE-DIGIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES ALONG THE TURNPIKE TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. HAVE REWORDED THE WSW TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR 12+ INCHES OVER THIS AREA...WITH MAX AMOUNTS IN THE 15 TO 20 INCH RANGE. THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR POSSIBLE BLIZZARD AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS INVOF LANCASTER COUNTY WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING COULD COMPOUND HEAVY SNOW IMPACTS -- MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. SNOW CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEAST PA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well this is a true I 83 blizzard! Lol! CTP being bullish further north is a good thing. I hope you guys get pummeled by some rogue bands. That's always the wildcard in a storm like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Uh oh, it's CTP vs Horst: E. Horst, MU WIC @MUweather No changes at this time, but sharp north edge & possible change to sleet are major issues for the Lanc/York/Harrisburg area. #BustPotential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Was the 6z GFS really back south? really not a huge difference from say 0z other than what it does with precip placement (that some in another forum are a little too obsessed with from run to run and are using that to say "north" and "south" but that is another story)... this system is going to do some things (both good and not so good) that are not going to show up on those qpf maps on the lower resolution runs of the global models... im excited (and nervous) to see what the high resolution models do today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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