Interstate Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 These are 4-7 day outlooks. Similar to SPC outlooks. They are not intended to be specific. Details are relayed within day 3. There should be no map for 4-7 days out. Everyone knows how fast a forecast can change... especially 7 days out. I can only see getting egg on the face. But this is just my opinion. I will not talk about it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So as of now, the only model not to have the H5 capture is the 06z GFS, correct? And it still shows 20" of snow. All of the other models have the capture and thus the 30" totals begin to appear. Is this right and is there reason to not believe the 06z GFS of not completing the capture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 There should be no map for 4-7 days out. Everyone knows how fast a forecast can change... especially 7 days out. I can only see getting egg on the face. But this is just my opinion. I will not talk about it again. There actually can be high confidence in the LR at times. Anyway, send them feedback if you want. These graphics are still experimental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Para is mostly lock step with the op. A little different with qpf maxes. EZF is in a 30" bubble and nw va is detroyed just like the op. Baltimore and NE is under 20" but it's surely noise vs anything meaningfully different. Long duration event for sure. Thanks Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So as of now, the only model not to have the H5 capture is the 06z GFS, correct? And it still shows 20" of snow. All of the other models have the capture and thus the 30" totals begin to appear. Is this right and is there reason to not believe the 06z GFS of not completing the capture? Was wondering the same thing. I am not great at reading h5 vort maps but have become better over the years....comparing 00z and 6z gfs, my amateur eyes can't pick out a difference that kept the 06z from closing off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 There actually can be high confidence in the LR at times. Anyway, send them feedback if you want. These graphics are still experimental. This storm is the perfect example of a confident long range forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Para is mostly lock step with the op. A little different with qpf maxes. EZF is in a 30" bubble and nw va is detroyed just like the op. Baltimore and NE is under 20" but it's surely noise vs anything meaningfully different. Long duration event for sure. Thanks Bob, is the beltway in that 30" bubble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 thanks, bob. just trying to post relevant images for the hundreds of guests viewing this thread looking for information. good comment and thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hey guys, just for reference, the 6z gfs yesterday did the same thing and scooted the low on out. At 12z it was back to being "captured". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Thanks Bob, is the beltway in that 30" bubble? Uniform 24" surrounding dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hey guys, just for reference, the 6z gfs yesterday did the same thing and scooted the low on out. At 12z it was back to being "captured". why are you worried about what gfs does, after this morning EURO gave us a shellacking?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 why are you worried about what gfs does, after this morning EURO gave us a shellacking?? All models have given us a shellacking... even the 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 why are you worried about what gfs does, after this morning EURO gave us a shellacking?? I'm not worried. I'm trying to pass on info and add to the discussion. Give it a try sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 hope this helps. It certainly helps me!! I thought purple meant imminent threat of Barney the dinosaur attacking. Thanks for helping clarify the situation Mappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm not worried. I'm trying to pass on info and add to the discussion. Give it a try sometime. i read, comment very rarely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEFS mean is good, about 2" QPF for DCA and surrounding area...the snow total is about 16" Individ ensembles are decent as well from 6z GFS... only 2 "misses" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshanaz Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 How does wind direction and speed vary with a storm like the one modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 e17, congrats Winchester! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What, if any, significant factor does this week's sub-freezing temperatures play into the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 e9 would be one for the books. Interesting I was looking at the NESIS scale and only 2 cat 5 storms..93 and 96. never looked before but assumed others like 1888 would be in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What, if any, significant factor does this week's sub-freezing temperatures play into the storm? I would gather that the snow would be able to accumulate easier/faster... but that is my wag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So as of now, the only model not to have the H5 capture is the 06z GFS, correct? And it still shows 20" of snow. All of the other models have the capture and thus the 30" totals begin to appear. Is this right and is there reason to not believe the 06z GFS of not completing the capture? Even if we dont get the capture we will still get burried by the front end thump. It will just move off faster. There is a massive amount of moisture to play with here. I feel like you have to be pretty confident that we all are going to get hammered this weekend. I dont think its going to be the crazy 3-4 foot numbers the Euro is pushing. But we are getting crushed. The only way I see it not happening is suppression at this point. And that looks less and less likely with each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Even if we dont get the capture we will still get burried by the front end thump. It will just move off faster. There is a massive amount of moisture to play with here. I feel like you have to be pretty confident that we all are going to get hammered this weekend. I dont think its going to be the crazy 3-4 foot numbers the Euro is pushing. But we are getting crushed. The only way I see it not happening is suppression at this point. And that looks less and less likely with each model run. There is so much uniformity, in the models, I keep waiting for one to jump ship and sail off to Bermuda or to the Midwest, leaving us to argue about whether it will happen at all. It's all too perfect right now, we're just discussing whether cold temperatures or sun angle or whatever will give us 2 feet or 3, which is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Even if we dont get the capture we will still get burried by the front end thump. It will just move off faster. There is a massive amount of moisture to play with here. I feel like you have to be pretty confident that we all are going to get hammered this weekend. I dont think its going to be the crazy 3-4 foot numbers the Euro is pushing. But we are getting crushed. The only way I see it not happening is suppression at this point. And that looks less and less likely with each model run. I don't like the trend of the 06z GFS. Hope it's a blip on the screen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I don't like the trend of the 06z GFS. Hope it's a blip on the screen Not that im in a position to question you, but is it really a trend? Seems like we had the euro Para waffle yesterday just to come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I don't like the trend of the 06z GFS. Hope it's a blip on the screen Why is that? No h5 capture? Or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 ers-wxman, would you really take the GFS over the EURO here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm not concerned about the 06Z GFS at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I don't like the trend of the 06z GFS. Hope it's a blip on the screen Is one model run a "trend"? Additionally, it still buries the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not that im in a position to question you, but is it really a trend? Seems like we had the euro Para waffle yesterday just to come back. It's not a "trend". It's one run. I know you know this, but just sayin. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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