cjr231 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I want to say only the GFS showed that, the NAM had it mostly south and so did the euro. It was just that most felt the gradient wouldn't end up nearly that sharp. 100% correct. NAM and EURO were locked in on the gradient and got it pretty correct. GFS was incorrect. People used poor resolution and the NAM's reputation to downplay a gradient like that but it transpired anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Can you please elaborate and compare to this situation????? Went something like this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 There is a SW hitting the W coast at the same time . It dampens the height rises on the EC and the system can only get so far N before it heads E . As the EC system encounters the confluence and occludes it gets shunted E . Is that at the mouth of the Chesapeake bay , AC or Belmar ? That is a huge difference as to where that N edge gets before the shield pivots . The models have to still figure out ( they are getting close ) where this occludes and where the confluence will shave the N fringe of this off . 50 miles may be the difference between a foot of snow and a dusting . The mean on the 12z EPS at KNYC is 12 inches . There are members in the cluster than are very far SE . One could assume that is skewing this to a degree . But that said KNYC is not in the clear . We all watched in 2010 a gradient that to this day makes me sick .That may play itself out again Sat here . ( It will somewhere ) . Except this time I hope I am far enough S , but there are no guarantees in this hobby ( job for some ) . Great post when u think the models nail this down or will it be a nowcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The NNJ jackpot has become an endangered species following Boxing Day 2010. All the really high impact snowstorms have dumped either from LI northeastward or southwest down into CNJ south of the Driscoll Bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I want to say only the GFS showed that, the NAM had it mostly south and so did the euro. It was just that most felt the gradient wouldn't end up nearly that sharp. My concern is there is no room for another southern shift. Even if only 20 miles will take us out of the game and its 2010 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The NNJ jackpot has become an endangered species following Boxing Day 2010. All the really high impact snowstorms have dumped either from LI northeastward or stayed in CNJ south of the Driscoll Bridge. Yeah, the most I've got recently came from the Valentines Day 2014 storm (February 13-14). I was very close to doing the best in the state at 16" Southern Jersey has been doing great the last couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How's it possible that low goes southeast instead of NE? I've never seen that. Can a met explain what's causing that? That happened on 4-1-97... IIRC, it was a double-barreled low that did a Fujiwhara deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 New 0z Euro PARA from this AM just updated . KNYC 5 JFK 8 KBLM 18 LHV 0 .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 100% correct. NAM and EURO were locked in on the gradient and got it pretty correct. GFS was incorrect. People used poor resolution and the NAM's reputation to downplay a gradient like that but it transpired anyhow. The GEFS also had virtually zip, 2 members had like 2.50 but the others had nearly zero and it skewed everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 4K NAM 60hr simulated IR. Looks pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 New 0z Euro PARA from this AM just updated . KNYC 5 JFK 8 KBLM 18 LHV 0 .. Just saw it. Downright ugly. But at least it's only 0z. For all we know it's better at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 New 0z Euro PARA from this AM just updated . KNYC 5 JFK 8 KBLM 18 LHV 0 .. The Para I have a feeling will be delayed on release. Ive followed it closely the last few weeks and it flops like crazy from run to run, north south north south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The Para I have a feeling will be delayed on release. Ive followed it closely the last few weeks and it flops like crazy from run to run, north south north south again. 2 days ago it was a whiff . Yesterday it painted a 20 spot in CNJ . I just posted the numbers . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 2 days ago it was a whiff . Yesterday it painted a 20 spot in CNJ . I just posted the numbers . Yeah it did the same last week with the system that brushed the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Gefs only gives nyc about 4-8 inches . More model madness coming up at 0z. Euro and epa gets better and gfs gets worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How does no one see the major convective feedback issues on the gfs. The precip shield should be much more expansive and uniform than what the model shows. At least it's not far from where the gradient may set up although too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The GEFS is another notch south. It's actually getting close to shafting the Northern DC burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The GEFS is another notch south. It's actually getting close to shafting the Northern DC burbs. Gfs and euro going opposite directions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I just checked the soundings from the 18Z GFS. I only checked for my location, but they are showing all snow here from that run verbatim. Just to clear that up. Here is HR 78 for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I just checked the soundings from the 18Z GFS. I only checked for my location, but they are showing all snow here from that run verbatim. Just to clear that up. Here is HR 78 for example. 18_GFS_078.png The mixing would be East of you verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The Para I have a feeling will be delayed on release. Ive followed it closely the last few weeks and it flops like crazy from run to run, north south north south again. The operational euro has been doing the same thing. 25-50 mile jumps from run fall within the normal uncertainty range at those lead times. If people were looking at a rainstorm under such a microscope, then they would see the same thing. People demand an unrealistic level of perfection from models for snow, but give them more leeway with rainfall and convection. These operational runs can sometimes act like another ensemble member. To some extent, these major events can morph in nowcast specials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 ensemble means are useless in an all or nothing situation like this. members with 0 bring down the mean very quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 18z NAVGEM probably shifted 100 miles NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 18z NAVGEM probably shifted 100 miles NW Well that's certainly better than SE! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Fwiw 18z Jma just went way north and crushes ct-nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 18z JMA is a crusher, lol. Brings precip up to SNH but it's an northern outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I didn't even know there was an 18Z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I didn't even know there was an 18Z JMAJma and Navgam, are they good for anything ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Jma and Navgam, are they good for anything ever? Only when they say what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 My memory of using the navgem is that it's pretty good from about 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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