pcbjr Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Tall and JAX are calling for a "warming trend" starting next Saturday. Here's hoping they are as right about that as my flurries and snow shower today (which they didn't have a clue about)! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAO seems to be going +, but what has a long "-" meant until today (if the NAO had anything to do with the storm in the first place)? PNA stays + and AO is progged around neutral. Not too bad; not great, but with El Nincompoop, who knows. IMHO - not too bad; not too good. {Walk the fence, dude} Waiting for tomorrow's runs once this storm is out of the data ingest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I think the -NAO helped set the stage for this storm in the week prior. So it helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I think the -NAO helped set the stage for this storm in the week prior. So it helps. May have, but it was a long time coming. Point being, in this year, I'm not real sure what dynamic is driving the train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Tall and JAX are calling for a "warming trend" starting next Saturday. Here's hoping they are as right about that as my flurries and snow shower today (which they didn't have a clue about)! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAO seems to be going +, but what has a long "-" meant until today (if the NAO had anything to do with the storm in the first place)? PNA stays + and AO is progged around neutral. Not too bad; not great, but with El Nincompoop, who knows. IMHO - not too bad; not too good. {Walk the fence, dude} Waiting for tomorrow's runs once this storm is out of the data ingest. Looks like we get a big cutter around D10 that should put us well above normal for a couple days, then it's back to averageish temps again. The warmup that has been advertised for weeks looks muted and short-lived. The teleconnections don't look as good with a positive to neutral NAO for the foreseeable future, but meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 NAVGEM is borderline on temps, but the track just crushes western SC and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Are any offices mentioning this possibility in their respective AFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Are any offices mentioning this possibility in their respective AFD? RAH mentioned (not in their words) that we could have p-type issues, but of course there were too many variables at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 C Justus on 4, just said he's not seeing anything wintry in the next 12+ days! And advertising 61 next Saturday ! ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 C Justus on 4, just said he's not seeing anything wintry in the next 12+ days! And advertising 61 next Saturday ! ;(#Fishel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 FROM KFFC LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE MODELS. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH GA WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BETWEEN THE MODELS. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH FL ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE INTO NORTH GA WHILE THE GFS LIMITS THE MOISTURE TO PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH GA. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE ON POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOST OF THE PRECIP TO BE RAIN. THE EXTREME NORTHERN EDGES OF THE PRECIP SHIELD COULD HAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 C Justus on 4, just said he's not seeing anything wintry in the next 12+ days! And advertising 61 next Saturday ! ;( same old same old guess we're back to our old ways again today was fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The latest run of the GFS must of looked terrible for this potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 C Justus on 4, just said he's not seeing anything wintry in the next 12+ days! And advertising 61 next Saturday ! ;( I like CJ - he's very similar to a young James Spann - but after the infamous Feb 2015 debacle (my predicted foot of falling cement turned into 1 inch slop), he will err conservative on TV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The latest run of the GFS must of looked terrible for this potential event.Everybody worshipped them for nailing this event, so I took his word as gospel! 18z had a decent look, temps borderline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Right where we want them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I am sure the DC boys will cash in on this one again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Why is everyone getting excited over a cold front? Doesn't make sense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Why is everyone getting excited over a cold front? Doesn't make sense! Because weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Why is everyone getting excited over a cold front? Doesn't make sense! Systems forming on trailing cold fronts is something that can actually produce around here. (Not that I'm excited about the aforementioned system.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I don't like the looks of the pattern breaking down this late in the game. the MJO is forecasted to go into a very warm phase for Feb. Just hope it's wrong! We need blocking if we are going to score in Feb and March!!! We can score without blocking, but chances are much better with it... Kinda depressing after all the build up to the past storm, and poof it's gone and looks like we going into a warmer pattern.... Frosty is beginning to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Ukie!GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif HMMM, looks like a carbon copy of the March 2009 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 C Justus on 4, just said he's not seeing anything wintry in the next 12+ days! And advertising 61 next Saturday ! ;( Wouldn't surprise me a bit for him to have to eat those words. With what today's 12z showed Low in GOM Aand high to NE noway would I be saying what he is saying. But of course they have to be very conservative on air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Wouldn't surprise me a bit for him to have to eat those words. With what today's 12z showed Low in GOM Aand high to NE noway would I be saying what he is saying. But of course they have to be very conservative on air. Yep, they will always go for the scenario that has the least amount of impact to viewers at this range. The way the models flip, it is best to avoid a situation where you would have to back-pedal" As winter weather fans, we can hype a storm and not worry about he ramifications of being wrong come verification time. Having said that, I don't understand why they would even put out a 7 day forecast and deceive folks into thinking there was no threat whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Yep, they will always go for the scenario that has the least amount of impact to viewers at this range. The way the models flip, it is best to avoid a situation where you would have to back-pedal" As winter weather fans, we can hype a storm and not worry about he ramifications of being wrong come verification time. Having said that, I don't understand why they would even put out a 7 day forecast and deceive folks into thinking there was no threat whatsoever. I totally agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Yep, they will always go for the scenario that has the least amount of impact to viewers at this range. The way the models flip, it is best to avoid a situation where you would have to back-pedal" As winter weather fans, we can hype a storm and not worry about he ramifications of being wrong come verification time. Having said that, I don't understand why they would even put out a 7 day forecast and deceive folks into thinking there was no threat whatsoever.Nice post and I agree! But he's normally a pretty big snow weenie, and if there was a 5-6 day threat, he would say we are going to have to watch this, looks like rain, but things could change. That's pretty conservative , but saying no wintry weather for 12 days, is a pretty bold statement in the middle of winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Unfortunately, going with climo has served them well through the years. That's one of my beefs with Fishel. He's the best inside 24 hours, but usually doesn't talk much about what if's and potential. I think this past storm was a pretty good example. I guess he gives a lot of weight to the gfs - and its partner climate models I'd presume. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2016 Author Share Posted January 24, 2016 HMMM, looks like a carbon copy of the March 2009 storm? Jist with a 1015mb high instead of 1045+ during that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Nice post and I agree! But he's normally a pretty big snow weenie, and if there was a 5-6 day threat, he would say we are going to have to watch this, looks like rain, but things could change. That's pretty conservative , but saying no wintry weather for 12 days, is a pretty bold statement in the middle of winter! I see where you coming from but snow weenie or not, he still is limited to what he can say on air in a certain time period even if he does see a threat. I bet right now he knows there's a threat from what he seen on today's Euro run, but being limited he could not say anything about it this far out. So he goes with 61° and will adjust from there if need to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 No blocking or ridging NW Canada to build BIG COLD HIGHS it's gonna be tough to get a winter storm down here in the south. # Winter Can____. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Unfortunately, going with climo has served them well through the years. That's one of my beefs with Fishel. He's the best inside 24 hours, but usually doesn't talk much about what if's and potential. I think this past storm was a pretty good example. I guess he gives a lot of weight to the gfs - and its partner climate models I'd presume. TW Producers will not allow much speculation. He knows all the potential but is not allowed to speculte on air. It causes way to many problems with people that pick out only the parts they want to hear. Alot like some folks here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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