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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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Guess my college and professional experience means nothing. Oh and I didn't say that it wasn't going to happen I was talking about trends. But this is a straight up cold front. So I will say with almost absolute confidence that charlotte won't see and winter precip.

Your College and Professional experience means you get held to a higher standard than the rest of us weenies.

Future: Just make a prediction and own it.

 

And yes, I agree with you that for many of us this Tuesday-Thursday event looks like a Fropa.

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Any high pressure showing up yet besides the 1022mb one way up in Canada on Frosty's map above?

It was modeled at 1015 yesterday, so small improvements! Thing that concerns me is, this is a wave developing on a front. Take that, with marginal cold, and the cold having to make it over the mountains, as it looks today, I give it A 25% chance of anything frozen , outside the mtns.
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It was modeled at 1015 yesterday, so small improvements! Thing that concerns me is, this is a wave developing on a front. Take that, with marginal cold, and the cold having to make it over the mountains, as it looks today, I give it A 25% chance of anything frozen , outside the mtns.

What few models I've looked at this morning, Some of the models as of now seems to be a little to far from the coast for western NC/SC  Maybe close enough to get eastern half of the states..... But I'm sure things will change many times.... But it could be a case where eastern half has a chance of Rain to Snow as low pulls away. 

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It was modeled at 1015 yesterday, so small improvements! Thing that concerns me is, this is a wave developing on a front. Take that, with marginal cold, and the cold having to make it over the mountains, as it looks today, I give it A 25% chance of anything frozen , outside the mtns.

Voice of reason!

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What few models I've looked at this morning, Some of the models as of now seems to be a little to far from the coast for western NC/SC  Maybe close enough to get eastern half of the states..... But I'm sure things will change many times.... But it could be a case where eastern half has a chance of Rain to Snow as low pulls away. 

Seems reasonable, but if you look at CMC and what the Euro has shown a couple of times that there is at least a chance that things could move in a favorable direction.  TW

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As far as future threats/longer range. Watching Wed/Thursday as cold chases rain. right now, i dont expect much but watching.


 



Beyond this, pattern takes a break with a warm-up by this weekend into 1st week of Feb. After than, signs a colder/active pattern returns.



00z Canadian ENS shows this look by D16. +PNA/slight -AO/+NAO Euro ENS similar. Likely to evolve colder beyond this


 


CZfwY6XUYAIJeuL.png


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FWIW-----Just watched JB's Video, He thinks February will be normal to below country wide, Don't think it will be as cold as last Feb. But should be a Deep trough in the SE and stormy. Winter not over by a long shot in his opinion. Says He still hasn't got Dallas, Atlanta yet as far as snow goes............  

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FWIW-----Just watched JB's Video, He thinks February will be normal to below country wide, Don't think it will be as cold as last Feb. But should be a Deep trough in the SE and stormy. Winter not over by a long shot in his opinion. Says He still hasn't got Dallas, Atlanta yet as far as snow goes............

Still hasn't got our 200% either

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Still hasn't got our 200% either 

It's just Jan. 24th  nearly 2 months left yet that we can get snow!!!

 

There's some in that 200% close to their's. It hard to hit everybody's back yard, from August............  :axe:

 

I've see many Mets too many to name, with a winter forecast about like JB's from August.... They issued in November. But I never hear them called out? I wonder why??? He can miss one call and that's all you hear, other's miss a lot and Silence!!   He's the most hated Met in the business....  :deadhorse:

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6z gfs,6z dgex and one of the sref still show potential. But after this shot,chance it'll be atleast Feb 6th on before we can even discuss the possibilities of another one. Noticed with clouds I could still see outside at 6;00 last night. Yikes

Made the same observation to the wife last evening around 6:00 while I was getting more kerosene into smaller containers in case we needed it for the heater. Power came back about 2 hours later.

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6z gfs,6z dgex and one of the sref still show potential. But after this shot,chance it'll be atleast Feb 6th on before we can even discuss the possibilities of another one. Noticed with clouds I could still see outside at 6;00 last night. Yikes

 

But you said next week's storm would have it's own thread by today.  :axe:

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But you said next week's storm would have it's own thread by today.  :axe:[/quote

Well the trend ain't our friend on this one. Wasn't a long shot yesterday, but definetly is today. Hopefully it can hang on by thread it's barely hanging onto at the moment.because the only other topic of discussion is going to be pattern change post Feb 6th and I think alot of us have had our belly full of that this year after 4 straight weeks of it in December. The MJO forecast and some other Indices look favorable as Feb rolls on, but personally when your chasing a pattern change with 2/3rd winter in the books doesn't get my cranks turning.]

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guys there is still 2 good months of winter left for everyone, I've seen some huge snow storms in April, believe it was April 3 1987 like a foot of snow after I was wearing shorts to work the week before,

For Asheville , maybe!

Non- mountain areas, realistically , we have basically a month left. Yeah, y'all can throw around the best snows ever have been in March and March of 83, blah blah blah, but that's maybe 5 or 6 storms out of 120 years, I don't like those odds!

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Climatology speaking for the western Carolinas January is more know has ICE events for our area. While Febuary is know for good snow storms. Correct?

 

The upstate can get various forms of Winter weather from December-March.  Down into the Central Midlands, Feb has done us well in the past, along with the coast & I-20.  I would venture to say as an over-all rule, Feb is the better month for SC though.

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For Asheville , maybe!

Non- mountain areas, realistically , we have basically a month left. Yeah, y'all can throw around the best snows ever have been in March and March of 83, blah blah blah, but that's maybe 5 or 6 storms out of 120 years, I don't like those odds!

According to storm totals I got 4 inches and my climo is 7 inches. Still 60 days to go.

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According to storm totals I got 4 inches and my climo is 7 inches. Still 60 days to go.

Greenville is pretty big, you got 4, I got less than 1", and if you really believe we have 2 months left, well, your setting yourself up for heartache !

Don't know the official GSP total, but would guess 5-6" officially, because they are N of 85!

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Greenville is pretty big, you got 4, I got less than 1", and if you really believe we have 2 months left, well, your setting yourself up for heartache !

Don't know the official GSP total, but would guess 5-6" officially, because they are N of 85!

You have a month and a half left. Plenty of time. The first week or two of March is quite snowy (surprisingly so) for most of us.

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It's just Jan. 24th  nearly 2 months left yet that we can get snow!!!

 

There's some in that 200% close to their's. It hard to hit everybody's back yard, from August............  :axe:

 

I've see many Mets too many to name, with a winter forecast about like JB's from August.... They issued in November. But I never hear them called out? I wonder why??? He can miss one call and that's all you hear, other's miss a lot and Silence!!   He's the most hated Met in the business....  :deadhorse:

 

Watched him on James Spann's weatherbrains a week or so ago; he's passionate and willing to go out on a limb with long range forecasts that many of the "haters" can't and won't do.  Was interesting listening to him talk about his Son giving him grief for not responding to the haters; he said that doesn't matter and he does his job; he can't worry about what people say.  I like his enthusiasm and character.  To heck with the haters; some of the "mets" folks seem to "worship" are just arrogant blankety-blanks, downright rude, and wrong more times than Joe.. 

 

Liking Joe sticking to his long range prediction for this winter; sure hope it comes to fruition around ATL and other spots where folks have missed out so far.  There's no denying the pattern appears to be resetting for Fab Feb just a matter of will it produce.  Not giving up hope until Spring. 

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