NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Oz EPS para has 2 to 4 across piedmont NC and 3 to 6 across Mountains. All the Ensembles ,gfs and euro are colder than the euro op. This threat will have its own thread by the end of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Oz EPS para has 2 to 4 across piedmont NC and 3 to 6 across Mountains. All the Ensembles ,gfs and euro are colder than the euro op. This threat will have its own thread by the end of the weekend.What day is this for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I like the 12z GFS trying to driving a nice ball of energy down. Might be close to something on the ensembles later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 think this is Thursday of next week, Jan. 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 ukie looks interesting to say the least. I think that's a sub 545 5h low that's cut off over mobile, Alabama. Might be enough cold air to work with under that? Edit: These heights are WAY lower that what the GFS is showing, and even the GFS is marginally cold enough for us. (Both models also have this system coming through at the same time.) I'm gonna go out on a limb here based off the cruddy ukmet maps and say it's depicting an epic snow storm for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Make that bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Whew the Gefs and the Canadian are a beaut. Canadian is a Carolina pipe dream. If the euro and EPS hold the fort today, it's time to give this threat it's due. Eastern NC looks to do better on this one. Gonna be a fun one to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Canadian clown has 3 to 9 inches across most of NC. The way it slants it OTS before bending back to make sure NE gets theirs lol, is a good track for Gvegas and down east crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Temps are going to be an issue, like always , whether we want to ignore them at this point or not. I've got low 50s forecast for Tues/Wed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Temps are going to be an issue, like always , whether we want to ignore them at this point or not. I've got low 50s forecast for Tues/Wed! What's going to be your wind direction. If it's northerly cut 10 degrees off that. Remember we have a temporary glacier to our north. Also there is a lot of ice pack at our locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Might need to start a new thread for next week soon. We are within 5 days ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Looks like a good setup, just worried about the temps. Only have four days to get cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The snowpack to the north will only help with surface temp s. It will have no impact on ptype except maybe freezing rain Vs plain rain. Of course it could also mean snow and 29 rather than 32. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Looks like a pretty warm setup with 850s not even close at the moment. It better start to trend colder pretty quick...perhaps the mountains at least get anot her nice shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Whew the Gefs and the Canadian are a beaut. Canadian is a Carolina pipe dream. If the euro and EPS hold the fort today, it's time to give this threat it's due. Eastern NC looks to do better on this one. Gonna be a fun one to track. Your optimism is something else, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Funny how the models show snow, but in reality the temps are an issue and it would probably be rain here. Would be nice if the temps and models were on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Is there a cold high pressure anywhere in sight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Via WPC Edit: oops cut out the probabilities... Light green: 10% Dark green: 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Is there a cold high pressure anywhere in sight? Yeah but the high moves out...we need to hope something can hold the high in place, or at least the models trending towards the high either staying longer or the storm speeding up. Not looking that great at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Wow, that seems shockingly high, all things considered, Jon. Five days out and with temperature issues at a head and yet a 30% chance at a decent storm here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Any word on the latest Euro that is running right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Yes, Im pretty surprised at the 30% so far out. Anyone seen the euro? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Yeah there are low heights up and down the east coast into Canada this time...no blocking. Reminds me a lot of last year....would need to depend on great timing to keep the high there...like last year. But this year no great epo for cold air outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Is there a cold high pressure anywhere in sight?Over Eurasia, with the snowcover ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Yes, Im pretty surprised at the 30% so far out. Anyone seen the euro? TW Miller A rainstorm with a strong low tracking over Ontario and Quebec concurrently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Wow, that seems shockingly high, all things considered, Jon. Five days out and with temperature issues at a head and yet a 30% chance at a decent storm here? I don't think this current snowstorm had that 5 days out... but someone might have to check me on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Miller A rainstorm with a strong low tracking over Ontario and Quebec concurrently. Rain in Mountains also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Well really we have a very strong signal for a miller A on allmodeling. The euro op holds things back the longest and crawls the storm and at the same time let's a GL low push our hp out of the way screwing up the confluence in the NE. Like jon said and I've heard another in the know poster state one trend that would go a long way to solve the temp issue is for the euro op to speed up like can, ukie gfs. Gonna get the storm and track is perfect for alot of us. As usual depends on how it gets timed. Maybe the big coastal going up the seaboard can lock in a 50/50 and hold up. Well see. The ens off the euro will be telling. Big thing to watch is the confluence trends in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Rain in Mountains also? Dry in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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