strongwxnc Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Thanks. This looks like a hot mess here FRI 00Z 22-JAN 3.1 0.2 1021 92 99 0.05 561 544FRI 06Z 22-JAN 1.6 0.3 1018 99 99 0.51 559 544FRI 12Z 22-JAN 1.2 1.2 1013 98 100 0.46 554 544FRI 18Z 22-JAN 0.8 0.5 1011 85 40 0.38 548 539 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 How is this shaping up for upstate sc Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 All your answers are found here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47661-jan-22-23-east-coast-storm/ How is this shaping up for upstate scSent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Thanks. This looks like a hot mess here All we need is a little more tick south, stronger HP. That will do the trick! I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Doc has another big storm at the end of this run. Looks like the pattern we've been dreaming of if the Euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I guess everyone forgot to mention that the Euro looks horrible for TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Doc has another big storm at the end of this run. Looks like the pattern we've been dreaming of if the Euro is right. I thought there was a huge torch coming up after the late week system ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I guess everyone forgot to mention that the Euro looks horrible for TN. This isn't the TN forum, bud. It used to be, but then they split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think the storm threat for late week has the attention of most folks here, but I did notice today's indices look better for the LR according to GFS ensembles. PNA looks to stay positive. NAO looks to head toward neutral, but with more members trending negative in the LR. AO goes from deep negative now back toward neutral, but then most members back down into negative territory (some back to deep negative). Could be that the warm up next week is short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I thought there was a huge torch coming up after the late week system ? Last half of December was a huge torch. Never heard legitimate thoughts or maps showing huge torch for next week. Warm up or relaxation, yes. However, it looks like the pattern may be showing signs of a brief, transient warm up and then back to a good pattern. Hopefully, an even better pattern for those of us in the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Last half of December was a huge torch. Never heard legitimate thoughts or maps showing huge torch for next week. Warm up or relaxation, yes. However, it looks like the pattern may be showing signs of a brief, transient warm up and then back to a good pattern. Hopefully, an even better pattern for those of us in the deep south. hopefully you are right and Feb will be our month in the deep south. It didn't work out so well last year for I-20 though. I'm afraid this winter may be like last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Lots of nice thoughts today; enjoy reading them as work time permits. Thanks, Folks. Any maps anyone can post - can't dig deep today due to a massive deadline tomorrow. Best, Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Lots of nice thoughts today; enjoy reading them as work time permits. Thanks, Folks. Any maps anyone can post - can't dig deep today due to a massive deadline tomorrow. Best, Phil I can't because I'm on my phone, but basically all three sets of ensembles show ridge west/trough east at d10. The AO looks to be negative in the LR. The GEFS bring a trough west/ridge east after d10, but I don't buy it. I'm happy with the look. The big warm-up keeps getting muted/pushed back, as it should. Feb is going to be decent, IMO.Good luck with the deadline, sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 hopefully you are right and Feb will be our month in the deep south. It didn't work out so well last year for I-20 though. I'm afraid this winter may be like last winter. You are correct about last year. Pattern got right late January and weather got cold but we were never cold enough when the storms came. I think we will be colder than average for Feb. and I am confident that the STJ will provide storms. Whether or not the storm track and the cold air combine to give of snow/ice this far south is more of a ? for me. I guess we could argue that is always the question for us in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I can't because I'm on my phone, but basically all three sets of ensembles show ridge west/trough east at d10. The AO looks to be negative in the LR. The GEFS bring a trough west/ridge east after d10, but I don't buy it. I'm happy with the look. The big warm-up keeps getting muted/pushed back, as it should. Feb is going to be decent, IMO. Good luck with the deadline, sir! Yes, I was very happy to see a nice western Ridge on the ensembles in the long range. I really want the pna and EPO to get on our side for February. Get us some cold shots and maybe we can time one just right. The moisture will be there. We just have been too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yes, I was very happy to see a nice western Ridge on the ensembles in the long range. I really want the pna and EPO to get on our side for February. Get us some cold shots and maybe we can time one just right. The moisture will be there. We just have been too warm. Yeah exactly. Bring the cold over here, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Take a look at the ECMWF 500mb 10 days out lol. http://models01.longwaveweather.com/modelimages/ecmwf/500mb_geopotential_height_anomaly_mslp_CONUS_hr240.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 -Strong warming forecasted for the strat soon,10mb and 30mb zonal winds expected to nosedive but not a technical SSW yet.I think that's why I think the AO is forecasted to go back negative after this quick rise to neutral. -MJO is forecasted to go COD soon.Long as it doesn't rage in 4/5/6 it won't warm much. -West QBO/solar minimum is still a decent setup,actually January has been lower than December with flux. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Any word on the 00Z Euro regarding the day 9/10 storm? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This isn't the TN forum, bud. It used to be, but then they split. Yea, sound don't utter the word Tennesse, this is the North Carolina forum after all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Any word on the 00Z Euro regarding the day 9/10 storm? TW It had nothing. Warms up on the 00z . I haven't looked at the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yea, sound don't utter the word Tennesse, this is the North Carolina forum after all! No, Snowstorm2011 was just complaining that none of us had mentioned TN in our posts, and I told him why. I'll mention it if someone asks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z euro have anything for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I keep hearing about a 28th threat, but one at a time I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 hopefully you are right and Feb will be our month in the deep south. It didn't work out so well last year for I-20 though. I'm afraid this winter may be like last winter. We need a gulf low. Not an apps runner...not a clipper...not a Miller B that jumps over us...but a great tracking sure to goodness gulf low, with some cold enough air in place, and more coming down to refresh it, then a super freeze down after the freezing water stops. Not asking too much..lol, which it why you and I have been on the outside looking in..unless you like zr, which I don't T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We need a gulf low. Not an apps runner...not a clipper...not a Miller B that jumps over us...but a great tracking sure to goodness gulf low, with some cold enough air in place, and more coming down to refresh it, then a super freeze down after the freezing water stops. Not asking too much..lol, which it why you and I have been on the outside looking in..unless you like zr, which I don't T Aren't we always? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We need a gulf low. Not an apps runner...not a clipper...not a Miller B that jumps over us...but a great tracking sure to goodness gulf low, with some cold enough air in place, and more coming down to refresh it, then a super freeze down after the freezing water stops. Not asking too much..lol, which it why you and I have been on the outside looking in..unless you like zr, which I don't T At least I have someone like you to share my misery with. Of course, I plan on being somewhere on Fri where it's actually snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 At least I have someone like you to share my misery with. Of course, I plan on being somewhere on Fri where it's actually snowing. not here!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Day 8 threat? Loop the below link: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=192ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160120+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 JB this morning was hyping the next storm 7-8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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