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Wow

January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

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Just the overall negative attitude is miserable.

 

 

It's going to snow...just not here, LOL.  Huge signal for the day 9 event on the GEFS, guaranteed.

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Funny how we all love the American modeling when it shows something favorable but when it doesnt it is crap - personally - that would be a sweet storm for you guys.

I would not say we all love american modeling. :)

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Here is a positive post...any points for this???

 

Strat is alive, if GFS op is to be believe, Euro has been showing something similar.   Can this save Feb though...

 

 

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Here is a positive post...any points for this???

Strat is alive, if GFS op is to be believe, Euro has been showing something similar. Can this save Feb though...

She's gonna split!

But seriously, this was to be our savior, a SSWE. That's all that was talked about in December. Then in the last week, we were led to believe that we didn't NEED a SSWE in order for this great blocking to form.

What happened? Do we NEED a SSWE to split the vortex to turn the tide? Or can we pull it out without one?

Just seems like this was a forgotten issue the last week. The "importance" seemed to have changed for some reason.

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She's gonna split!

But seriously, this was to be our savior, a SSWE. That's all that was talked about in December. Then in the last week, we were led to believe that we didn't NEED a SSWE in order for this great blocking to form.

What happened? Do we NEED a SSWE to split the vortex to turn the tide? Or can we pull it out without one?

Just seems like this was a forgotten issue the last week. The "importance" seemed to have changed for some reason.

 

At this point, yes, if we want a cold/snowy Feb.  If the SSWE were to occur end of Jan it might not be until mid-Feb before things turn.

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It's going to snow...just not here, LOL. Huge signal for the day 9 event on the GEFS, guaranteed.

9-12 day ensemble snow accumulation maps are pretty worthless, IMO.

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We're not even half way through January. Good grief. If you lived in NC your whole life you should know we can be 70s one day and have snow in the same week.

It can also be 70s and 50s in the same week.

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Any euro 240hr out yet

 

So just posted in the banter thread...that pesky pv/low in south central Canada of course causes a major inland runner/cutter for the 17th it then decides to drop the pv/low down through right on top of us, it snows for day in the NE with this and brings us very cold but dry weather.  Classic winter...

 

It might try and do something day 9-10 but we all how realistic this is.

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So just posted in the banter thread...that pesky pv/low in south central Canada of course causes a major inland runner/cutter for the 17th it then decides to drop the pv/low down through right on top of us, it snows for day in the NE with this and brings us very cold but dry weather.  Classic winter...

 

It might try and do something day 9-10 but we all how realistic this is.

 

Don't want to sound all 'Cold Rain' in here, but not disappointed if it finds us in extreme cold in that period.

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I'm out to day 9 on the Euro. Something brewing over Texas with big time cold over us. We'll see where it goes from there.

 

Mighty quiet around here...

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Euro doesn't blow up any of the s/w's moving through during the period. Close calls.

Too many sw competing. Too much

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Euro doesn't blow up any of the s/w's moving through during the period. Close calls.

Nice snow swath across Central Texas via the Euro and the GFS. Coastal Low begins to organize a week from today and deepening MLK Day along the Middle Texas Coast

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the problem is everything that phases too early and cuts or transfers.

Yup, just need timing to work out perfectly. Most phased too late and bombed in the Atlantic. 

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Not a bad summary of the curent LR weather picture and potential by Kirk Mellish of WSB radio in ATL today. He does not always post on his blog consistently, but sometimes has good informative stuff. Last year some of the posts from Robert on WXsouth mysteriously showed up on his blog. Don't know if that is the case today, but his post  is pretty good and consistent of what others have been saying.

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Not a bad summary of the curent LR weather picture and potential by Kirk Mellish of WSB radio in ATL today. He does not always post on his blog consistently, but sometimes has good informative stuff. Last year some of the posts from Robert on WXsouth mysteriously showed up on his blog. Don't know if that is the case today, but his post  is pretty good and consistent of what others have been saying.

 

Not the first time Mellish has been accused of plagiarism and honestly, I don't understand why he does that. He's probably the most competent radio met I have ever listened to. He plays it on the safe side a little too often but a lot of broadcast mets seem to do that in this market. 

 

Anyway, not too worried about the back and forth on the models. It's not going to affect the outcome of anything and the weather is going to do its thing. We have had ample moisture laden systems and now we have cold air. Despite what the models show, we always have a chance when those two are present and close by. If we get back to the DEC temp pattern, then I'll probably call check mate.

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From RAH this afternoon...

BY THE WEEKEND... INCLUDING THE AFOREMENTIONED SATURDAY PERIOD...THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS OF A THE ACTIVESUBTROPICAL JET TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES INDUCINGONE OF MORE STORM SYSTEMS. THERE CONTINUED TO BE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTYIN THE MODELS (POTENTIAL COLD AIR AND/OR STORMINESS) TO PRECLUDE ANYMENTION WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... A BOTTOM LINE NOTE... THE ARCTIC AND NORTH ATLANTICOSCILLATION ENSEMBLE FORECASTS BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A TROUGH (COLDERTHAN NORMAL) CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHENCOMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED DOMINANCE OF THE EL NINO ENHANCEDSUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES - THIS MAY VERY WELLSIGNAL INCREASING CHANCES OF STORMINESS AND AT LEAST SOME THREAT OFWINTRY WEATHER ALONG THE SE/E COAST. UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN ANYSPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. BUT STAY TUNED. 

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