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Srain

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  1. Stratospheric warming event, strong blocking signature and a full latitude trough in February peak climatology. Not too shabby.
  2. The Euro solution is probably one of the better evolutions for a potential one-two punch for locations from San Antonio to Houston and on East into SW/Southern Louisiana I've seen in a while. Coastal low with the first shortwave next weekend and a secondary Coastal wave as the big dump heads South.
  3. 83 took years to recover from agriculturally speaking from NE Mexico, the RGV and the Coastal Plain all the way into Southern Louisiana. The Lower Rio Grande Valley was just beginning to recover when the 89 event happened and set back full recovery another 3 to 5 years.
  4. Meh, we've been running -1.73 below normal through yesterday @ IAH for January. Seeing a lot of trends via the ensembles that by mid next week, those departures will continue until at least mid February. We are getting a bit dry NW of Houston. Some moisture would be welcomed.
  5. Nice analysis Rob. Now you see why I was encouraged last week moving into February. There is also a very impressive Wave 1 episode developing at 10mb via the ECMWF EPS at hour 180. Should we get a legitimate SSW event next week, look out below.
  6. So much negativity in this thread with 1/2 the winter yet to come. I see benefits in the pattern change with big wrapped up 5H lows moving out of California across the Desert SW/New Mexico and inducing leeside cyclogenesis across West Texas/Panhandle as we move toward the end of January into February. Climo suggests our winter primetime is approaching.
  7. Liking the Updated Day 8+ and Day 11+ Analogs. Some memorable snow events in those years across SE Texas in the late January/February timeframe...
  8. MEX/MAV/MOS temperature guidance continues to bust way too warm in SE Texas. Another frost this morning across NW Harris County.
  9. The afternoon updated CPC Day 11+ Analogs are a nice fit for past stronger El Nino winters across our Region.
  10. This storm system reminds me of the Christmas Blizzard of 1997 particularly for Roswell and Ruidoso. We left Christmas night driving straight through to Ruidoso/Ski Apache. Once we were N of Carlsbad snow drifts exceeded 10 to 12 Feet. Ruidoso and Roswell experienced between 24 to 31 inches of snow. Ruidoso was literally buried and it took 2 days to clear the road to Ski Apache.
  11. Major flooding concerns will likely be the main issue during the hectic Christmas Holiday period. The Gulf remains warm and with an active sub tropical jet overhead and summertime PW's near or exceeding 2 inches with a wintertime storm track, expect a myriad of weather issues developing particularly later in the week into the 28th/29th.
  12. Getting a lot of rotation with storms organizing just West and NW of DT Houston.
  13. Onion Creek is now just 2 feet below the 1998 event. This appears to be headed to a new record. Record set: 25.4 Feet
  14. That meso low that rolled off the Sierra Madre Mountains that also led to the United flight from Las Vegas skidding off the runway while landing at IAH early this morning is shifting E. Visible satellite imagery clearly shows the main upper low spinning across Southern New Mexico and with a SW flow aloft and clearing skies across West and Central Texas, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk for severe storms later today across the Hill Country as the atmosphere destabilizes once again. Very heavy rainfall with heavy storms continue across Louisiana ahead of the MCV currently near Beaumont/Lake Charles.
  15. Portions of Galveston County received 6 inches of rainfall yesterday afternoon in 2 hours bringing flash flooding to areas that had already received over 2 inches of rainfall this past weekend. Storm totals could increase as the slow moving MCS continues moving E. Rainfall amounts of nearly 8 inches have been reported across the Lower Rio Grande Valley the past 3 days and strong storms continue to fire across the RGV as that pesky upper low continues to spin across Southern New Mexico. Yet another vigorous upper low is expected to drop S into the 4 Corners Region by Wednesday continuing an unsettled pattern into the late week and possibly into next weekend across portions of Texas.
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