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Everything posted by Srain

  1. Stratospheric warming event, strong blocking signature and a full latitude trough in February peak climatology. Not too shabby.
  2. The Euro solution is probably one of the better evolutions for a potential one-two punch for locations from San Antonio to Houston and on East into SW/Southern Louisiana I've seen in a while. Coastal low with the first shortwave next weekend and a secondary Coastal wave as the big dump heads South.
  3. 83 took years to recover from agriculturally speaking from NE Mexico, the RGV and the Coastal Plain all the way into Southern Louisiana. The Lower Rio Grande Valley was just beginning to recover when the 89 event happened and set back full recovery another 3 to 5 years.
  4. Meh, we've been running -1.73 below normal through yesterday @ IAH for January. Seeing a lot of trends via the ensembles that by mid next week, those departures will continue until at least mid February. We are getting a bit dry NW of Houston. Some moisture would be welcomed.
  5. Nice analysis Rob. Now you see why I was encouraged last week moving into February. There is also a very impressive Wave 1 episode developing at 10mb via the ECMWF EPS at hour 180. Should we get a legitimate SSW event next week, look out below.
  6. So much negativity in this thread with 1/2 the winter yet to come. I see benefits in the pattern change with big wrapped up 5H lows moving out of California across the Desert SW/New Mexico and inducing leeside cyclogenesis across West Texas/Panhandle as we move toward the end of January into February. Climo suggests our winter primetime is approaching.
  7. Liking the Updated Day 8+ and Day 11+ Analogs. Some memorable snow events in those years across SE Texas in the late January/February timeframe...
  8. MEX/MAV/MOS temperature guidance continues to bust way too warm in SE Texas. Another frost this morning across NW Harris County.
  9. The afternoon updated CPC Day 11+ Analogs are a nice fit for past stronger El Nino winters across our Region.
  10. This storm system reminds me of the Christmas Blizzard of 1997 particularly for Roswell and Ruidoso. We left Christmas night driving straight through to Ruidoso/Ski Apache. Once we were N of Carlsbad snow drifts exceeded 10 to 12 Feet. Ruidoso and Roswell experienced between 24 to 31 inches of snow. Ruidoso was literally buried and it took 2 days to clear the road to Ski Apache.
  11. Major flooding concerns will likely be the main issue during the hectic Christmas Holiday period. The Gulf remains warm and with an active sub tropical jet overhead and summertime PW's near or exceeding 2 inches with a wintertime storm track, expect a myriad of weather issues developing particularly later in the week into the 28th/29th.
  12. Getting a lot of rotation with storms organizing just West and NW of DT Houston.
  13. Onion Creek is now just 2 feet below the 1998 event. This appears to be headed to a new record. Record set: 25.4 Feet
  14. That meso low that rolled off the Sierra Madre Mountains that also led to the United flight from Las Vegas skidding off the runway while landing at IAH early this morning is shifting E. Visible satellite imagery clearly shows the main upper low spinning across Southern New Mexico and with a SW flow aloft and clearing skies across West and Central Texas, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk for severe storms later today across the Hill Country as the atmosphere destabilizes once again. Very heavy rainfall with heavy storms continue across Louisiana ahead of the MCV currently near Beaumont/Lake Charles.
  15. Portions of Galveston County received 6 inches of rainfall yesterday afternoon in 2 hours bringing flash flooding to areas that had already received over 2 inches of rainfall this past weekend. Storm totals could increase as the slow moving MCS continues moving E. Rainfall amounts of nearly 8 inches have been reported across the Lower Rio Grande Valley the past 3 days and strong storms continue to fire across the RGV as that pesky upper low continues to spin across Southern New Mexico. Yet another vigorous upper low is expected to drop S into the 4 Corners Region by Wednesday continuing an unsettled pattern into the late week and possibly into next weekend across portions of Texas.
  16. Morning briefing from Jeff: After a couple of dry weeks…two storm systems will affect the area late this week and this weekend…both severe weather and heavy rainfall will be possible. Onshore flow continues to stream moisture inland off the Gulf of Mexico this morning with dewpoints running in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s. Zonal flow aloft with strong capping overhead will negate any rainfall chances today and for the first half of Thursday with partly cloudy skies and breezy conditions. Thursday-Friday: First upper level storm system ejects out of the SW US and toward the central plains with a trailing cold front moving into the area late Thursday and on Friday and stalling. Air mass south of this front Thursday afternoon becomes moderately unstable with forecasted CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg and steepening lapse rates aloft. Surface heating into the mid 80’s will help to erode the weakening aping inversion and expect at least isolated storms to develop along the front. Any storms that develop will pose a hail and damaging wind threat with the best chances from College Station to Lufkin Thursday evening. Front sags southward on Friday and expect another active convective day Friday afternoon. Weak short wave will cross the area in combination with the surface front likely producing scattered thunderstorms in the heat of the afternoon. Guidance is really pegging Friday afternoon/evening to be fairly active. Again the air mass will be fairly unstable and strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Shear profiles are not overly favorable for tornado production, but large hail and wind damage appear the main threats. SPC has already outlooked much of the area for a slight risk of severe weather Friday afternoon. Saturday: Front remains stalled across the region and this will linger thunderstorm chances all day Saturday. Think the best chances will be in the afternoon hours with surface heating, but much of this depends on how much development there is Friday afternoon and if the air mass is “worked over” and needs time to recharge. Sunday/Monday: Much stronger and deeper upper level system approaches the region Sunday and Monday and this system will certainly bring impacts if the current model projections hold. Old surface front will move northward as a warm front on Sunday and with lift increasing, showers and thunderstorms will once again erupt along and north of this boundary. Severe weather will be possible Sunday afternoon with increasing instability and shear values. Main upper level system moves across the area late Sunday into Monday with numerous thunderstorms expected. Threat may transition from severe weather to heavy rainfall and flash flooding especially given the increasing saturated grounds after severe rounds of thunderstorms. Latest model guidance really pegs the area Sunday night into Monday morning with heavy rainfall and several flash flood factors appear favorable during this period including a good feed of moisture off the Gulf, a slow moving boundary, and exceptionally high moisture content of the air mass (PWS nearing 1.7 inches). Will also support a severe threat with a favorable splitting jet stream structure aloft and cooler mid level temperatures advecting over the warm surface air mass. Main threats appear to be large hail and wind damage, but tornadoes may also be possible.
  17. After a quiet and benign weather pattern the past couple of weeks we are beginning to transition to a bit more active pattern. For the most part our sensible weather will consist of a fast zonal flow off the Pacific across the Southern United States with a rather active Polar jet that has retreated N across Canada and the Northern Plains. The persistent eastern trough that has plagued the Lower 48 most of the late Winter/early Spring is about to transition to that of a Western trough allowing storm systems to dig S into the Pacific NW and California. The first in a series of storm systems is spinning off the Northern California Coast this morning and will begin to trek inland and ENE setting the stage for severe weather across the Plains and the Great Lakes Region tomorrow into Thursday. This storm system will carve out a trough across the West allowing a Pacific cold front to slowly advance S into our Region Thursday into Friday and stall somewhere near or just S of the I-35 Corridor of Central Texas. PW's continue to increase each day as rich tropical moisture near or above 2 standard deviations above normal become established across the Southern half of Texas into Louisiana. By Friday a second storm system begins to dive further S along the West Coast and move inland near San Diego. As this storm system moves across Northern Mexico over the weekend and begins to turn NE Sunday, the guidance is beginning to suggest the mean trough axis could take on a more negative tilt meaning strong to severe storms begin to increase across Texas beginning Saturday and increase in areal coverage on Sunday into Monday. Very high moisture valves with veering winds across the multiple levels suggest some potential for rotating storms particularly Saturday afternoon along a dryline across West Central Texas. Storms are expect to organize across the high Plains of the Sierra Madre front range just West of South Texas and spread NE.
  18. If this pattern does indeed develop, the first full week of April may have some potential...severe weather wise across our Region.
  19. Pushing 5.5 inches for the month of March IMBY. We're generally about 200% above normal for much of SE Texas. Lake Travis is slowly rising and areas NW of Dallas is seeing some improvement with Lake Levels. Del Rio has seen beneficial rainfall and the Lower and Middle Texas Coastal Plain has seen substantially better rainfall the past 10 days. Not too shabby so far. Central Mexico has certainly benefited.as well as New Mexico. All in all a typical El Nino pattern has eased the multi year drought.
  20. Evening briefing from Jeff: Heavy rainfall event underway over TX this evening. Slow moving upper level storms system will combine with a slow moving frontal boundary to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight/Saturday. Radar shows scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms in progress this evening across the NW ½ of SE TX stretching SW to the Mexican border and NE to E TX. Radar indicates already 2.5 inches of rainfall has fallen over SE Walker County and portions of San Jacinto County and several more inches are likely. Surface frontal boundary is currently along a Columbus to Conroe line and sagging southward with the bulk of the rainfall along and behind this feature. A few showers have developed ahead of this boundary. Storms motions thus far have been on the slow side which is allowing for increased short term rainfall rates. Meso scale models keep the bulk of the activity overnight across the NW ½ of SE TX closer to the best lift from the approaching upper level trough and behind the surface front. This appears to be where the greatest potential for heavy rainfall will be tonight into Saturday morning. Thus far the front has continued to move southward and this could bring the focus of heavy rainfall a bit southward than expected, but meso guidance does not suggest this at this time although observation trends of the frontal movement indicate otherwise. Will continue with widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches across much of the area with the lowest amounts near the coast and the highest amounts inland from Columbus to Livingston. Isolated totals could approach 4-6 inches especially north of HWY 105. This magnitude of rainfall on top of already saturated grounds (March rainfall running 200% of normal) suggests run-off will be maximized across the region. Hydro: Lake Conroe has increased their releases this evening to 1058cfs up from 529cfs this morning. Forecasted rainfall amounts over the headwaters of the San Jacinto River basin will likely require additional flood gate operations at Conroe. Lake Livingston is continuing flood releases from last week currently releasing 16,000cfs into the lower Trinity River. Forecasted rainfall over the inland portions of SE TX will almost certainly generate new flood waves on area rivers…and some rivers may rise to or above flood stage late this weekend or early next week. Persons along area rivers should monitor river levels and be prepared to act if needed.
  21. Evening briefing from Jeff: Strong storm system will bring another round of heavy rainfall to SE TX Friday night/Saturday…flooding will be possible. Impressive moisture return is underway across the region from both the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean with moisture values forecasted to peak near the climatological 99th percentile late Friday into early Saturday morning. This coupled with strong lift from an approaching upper level storm system and a slow moving surface front will set the stage for widespread heavy rainfall. Expect activity to develop over C TX midday Friday and begin to spread into our western counties late Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Cell training from SW to NE appears likely on Friday night with an enhanced flash flood threat as strong low level inflow brings copious moisture northward into this system. Overall slow motion points toward several hours of potentially heavy training rainfall from midnight to noon on Saturday. With grounds still soggy from frequent rainfall of late, run-off will be maximized across the region. Hourly rainfall rates may approach 2.0 inches in the stronger storms leading to quick run-off problems. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches is likely with isolated totals of 4-6 inches possible. Models have been suggesting the heaviest rainfall axis falls along and NW of a Columbus to Conroe to Livingston line, but latest 18Z guidance has shifted this southward a little and closer to metro Houston/Harris County. Hydro: Rivers and creeks are still in recession from last week, and the magnitude of rainfall forecasted will certainly produce new rises likely to flood stage on some of the mainstem rivers. Main concerns are the Trinity, Navasota, San Bernard, San Jacinto, and possibly the lower Brazos along with many of the smaller feeder creeks and tributaries. Flood gate operations continues at Lake Livingston which is resulting in minor flooding on the lower Trinity River below Liberty. Gate operations at Lake Conroe may resume this weekend depending on rainfall patterns. A Flash Flood Watch will likely be issued for portions of SE TX later tonight. Residents near rivers and creeks should remain alert to the flooding potential over the next several days.
  22. Morning briefing from Jeff: Another strong storm system will approach TX early this weekend with widespread rainfall likely. A weak frontal boundary is nearly stationary this morning from C TX into E TX, south of this boundary the air mass is moist and even a little unstable with dewpoints in the 60’s. High dewpoints over the cool nearshore waters is leading to sea fog formation and this will plague the coast for the next few days. Radar also shows a cluster of showers over Jackson and Colorado Counties moving NNE at around 10mph. Boundary just to our north may sag into our northern counties today and with heating into the upper 70’s may spark a shower or two from College Station to Livingston. Main show gets underway Friday evening and all day Saturday as the next Baja low moves across TX. Expect an increase in showers Friday evening and overnight as moisture increases off the western Gulf of Mexico and lift increases from the SW. The boundary to our north will very slowly sag into the area and add an additional focus for rainfall especially on Saturday. Will likely see periods of heavy rainfall in training bands on Saturday especially from Columbus to Conroe northward, but the entire area will see rainfall. Not expecting any severe weather with limited instability. Sea fog will continue along the coast likely through Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts Friday-Sunday will average 1-2 inches across the region with isolated totals of 3-5 inches possible. The highest threat for the heaviest rainfall will be along and NW of US 59 or across the areas that have already been hard hit over the last week with heavy rainfall. Flooding concerns especially on already elevated watersheds is possible this weekend into early next week. Hydro: River continue in recession from last week’s rainfall with only the lower Trinity still in flood from releases from Lake Conroe. Forecasted rainfall amounts this weekend will almost certainly produce new rises and with wet grounds run-off will be maximized across the region. New rises to flood stage will be possible this weekend into early next week on several of the local rivers.
  23. Areas across the Hill Country and S have been placed in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall Friday into Saturday.
  24. Skies are clearing behind the batch of light rain that spread across the Region early this morning. There is a meso High Pressure cell building in that could bring gusty NW along the Coast today. Temperatures where the sunshine breaks out could near 80F. There is a chance of some isolated storms to fire this afternoon mainly across the Hill Country underneath the cold pocket aloft associated with the upper low.
  25. Briefing from Jeff: Two storm systems will affect TX over the next several days with additional widespread rainfall…some heavy. An upper air storm system near Baja this morning will begin to move eastward today spreading lift from west to east across TX. At the surface warm southerly flow is bringing moisture back to the area with dewpoints into the low to mid 60’s which will likely result in some sea fog. Expect a mostly dry Tuesday followed by increasing rain chances tonight as the lift from the approaching upper level low spreads into the region. Will favor areas along and west of a Palacios to College Station line overnight for showers and even a thunderstorm or two. Strong lift spreads eastward on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms likely across the region. There is some debate on exactly how strong the sub-tropical ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will be and if that may keep the bulk of the activity north and west of metro Houston, but the latest short term guidance is fairly aggressive will thunderstorms over the central counties from late morning into early evening. A few of the storms could be on the strong side, but instability is generally lacking. Will favor the threat for isolated heavy rainfall especially NW of a line from Palacios to Waller to Cleveland where a low level boundary may establish. Weak frontal boundary may stall across the area on Wednesday night into Thursday so cannot completely pull rain chances on Thursday with a low level focus in the region. Expect coastal areas to remain in the light onshore flow which will keep 60 degree dewpoints over the cool nearshore waters…so sea fog is a good bet Wednesday-Friday. Friday-Sunday: Another strong upper level system will dig into the SW US and then head for TX…very El Nino like…with widespread rain and thunderstorms likely Friday and Saturday. This system appears stronger and has more moisture to work with than the first system tomorrow so concern is growing for a possible flooding threat due to the longer duration of the event and possible higher totals. Could again see some thunderstorms with this system also Friday night and Saturday. Hydro: Grounds remain wet across the region with additional rainfall likely Wednesday and Friday/Weekend. Main river stems are in recession from the rainfall last week, but forecasted rainfall amounts over the next 3-5 days suggests widespread amounts of 1-3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches will be possible. This amount of rainfall will generate new rises on areas watersheds and likely require flood gate operations on area reservoirs.
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