Srain

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Everything posted by Srain

  1. Congratulations Josh for your intercept and the data you provided for the Patricia Report. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP202015_Patricia.pdf
  2. Stratospheric warming event, strong blocking signature and a full latitude trough in February peak climatology. Not too shabby.
  3. The Euro solution is probably one of the better evolutions for a potential one-two punch for locations from San Antonio to Houston and on East into SW/Southern Louisiana I've seen in a while. Coastal low with the first shortwave next weekend and a secondary Coastal wave as the big dump heads South.
  4. 83 took years to recover from agriculturally speaking from NE Mexico, the RGV and the Coastal Plain all the way into Southern Louisiana. The Lower Rio Grande Valley was just beginning to recover when the 89 event happened and set back full recovery another 3 to 5 years.
  5. Meh, we've been running -1.73 below normal through yesterday @ IAH for January. Seeing a lot of trends via the ensembles that by mid next week, those departures will continue until at least mid February. We are getting a bit dry NW of Houston. Some moisture would be welcomed.
  6. Nice analysis Rob. Now you see why I was encouraged last week moving into February. There is also a very impressive Wave 1 episode developing at 10mb via the ECMWF EPS at hour 180. Should we get a legitimate SSW event next week, look out below.
  7. The surface low is near San Antonio at this time for what it's worth. Still digging ESE and may pass over/near Metro Houston midday into the afternoon hours.
  8. So much negativity in this thread with 1/2 the winter yet to come. I see benefits in the pattern change with big wrapped up 5H lows moving out of California across the Desert SW/New Mexico and inducing leeside cyclogenesis across West Texas/Panhandle as we move toward the end of January into February. Climo suggests our winter primetime is approaching.
  9. Liking the Updated Day 8+ and Day 11+ Analogs. Some memorable snow events in those years across SE Texas in the late January/February timeframe...
  10. MEX/MAV/MOS temperature guidance continues to bust way too warm in SE Texas. Another frost this morning across NW Harris County.
  11. Nice snow swath across Central Texas via the Euro and the GFS. Coastal Low begins to organize a week from today and deepening MLK Day along the Middle Texas Coast
  12. The afternoon updated CPC Day 11+ Analogs are a nice fit for past stronger El Nino winters across our Region.
  13. Some will recall that November 21, 1992 produced the only F4 tornado reported in Metro Houston. Obliviously the next day brought an extensive tornado outbreak further East.
  14. This storm system reminds me of the Christmas Blizzard of 1997 particularly for Roswell and Ruidoso. We left Christmas night driving straight through to Ruidoso/Ski Apache. Once we were N of Carlsbad snow drifts exceeded 10 to 12 Feet. Ruidoso and Roswell experienced between 24 to 31 inches of snow. Ruidoso was literally buried and it took 2 days to clear the road to Ski Apache.
  15. We hit 80F here yesterday with full sunshine. Good day to get the final backyard work completed before the big Winter Storm sweeps across the area this weekend. Springtime to a Blizzard. Looks like the pattern is indeed transitioning. Merry Christmas Wes!
  16. Major flooding concerns will likely be the main issue during the hectic Christmas Holiday period. The Gulf remains warm and with an active sub tropical jet overhead and summertime PW's near or exceeding 2 inches with a wintertime storm track, expect a myriad of weather issues developing particularly later in the week into the 28th/29th.
  17. Getting a lot of rotation with storms organizing just West and NW of DT Houston.
  18. Definitely will be at South Padre Island in April. The National Tropical Weather Conference is a fantastic venue and just the right size, attendance wise. The early lineup of presentations look very impressive as well.
  19. Great analysis Josh and congratulations on another successful intercept year. Looking forward to seeing you next Spring at the various Tropical Weather Conferences.
  20. 1992 may be a good November analog for this event.
  21. Onion Creek is now just 2 feet below the 1998 event. This appears to be headed to a new record. Record set: 25.4 Feet
  22. Josh clearly posted in a reply on the iCyclone feed that Patricia was likely the most intense tropical cyclone he has experienced. Josh is very 'detailed oriented' regarding data. Enough said after what we witnessed with RECON data prior to landfall.