WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What's up with the GFS lately though. It's bouncing around a lot more than usual it seems I've been on that since early December. I'm usually a big defender, but it has truly struggled beyond 120 this year, sometimes less than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 What's up with the GFS lately though. It's bouncing around a lot more than usual it seems Fast flow, tons of s/w's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Tom Niziol from TWC says, enjoy your last week of winter east coast. The torch is roaring back. I hope he's wrong, but he's not wrong often. I don't. If this is what a good pattern produces, then screw it. Let's bring back the sun, the 60's, and cruise on into spring. This great pattern has sucked. I have had only a dusting at my house which I will officially record as zero. I'm fine with a complete shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Fast flow, tons of s/w's. Unless we need one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 So based on what I'm hearing, the only model we should be even remotely looking at is the EURO. Plain and simple. We should all make a pact...nobody looks at the piece of crap GooFuS anymore. Long Range Thread should read "Euro Only" If you post GFS comments, mods should boot you for 3 days. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 So based on what I'm hearing, the only model we should be even remotely looking at is the EURO. Plain and simple. We should all make a pact...nobody looks at the piece of crap GooFuS anymore. Long Range Thread should read "Euro Only" If you post GFS comments, mods should boot you for 3 days. Thoughts? Dumb. That's my thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Just think, epic fail would be a better story than "the winter mostly sucked but we did get that 2-4" mixed bag of crap" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I think the main reason is the GFS sucks. If we stopped pretending it didn't we'd all be better off. Maybe it would even get fixed someday. 4 alarm sirens just went off at NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 4 alarm sirens just went off at NWS ha probably. not that any model is doing great in the LR but this is the type of pattern that exposes the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Just think, epic fail would be a better story than "the winter mostly sucked but we did get that 2-4" mixed bag of crap" Worst-case scenario is a surprise 0.5" before changeover that nobody sees because it happens at 3am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Dumb. That's my thought. I was kidding of course, but when was the last time the GFS beat the Euro? I'm sure it's scored the coup before, but it's about as rare as a Vikings Super Bowl win. Oooops. I do like Fran Tarkenton though, so don't hate me. BTW - I'm a Cowboys fan, so you can blast away on me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 4 alarm sirens just went off at NWS 4 drudge sirens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 PDIII posted in the discussion thread: Its obvious that the gfs can't handle the pattern. Right now there is so much potential that the model can't figure out which storm to go with... So it keeps bouncing back and forth from medium to long range. It is just so dynamic that its confused. I think as things relax a little bit the gfs will become more focused and that will help it to snow. I don't think it will latch on to something until maybe the 96 hour mark. And then watch... Boom... Something will bomb out. This is just the way the models work. So the GFS's what's been keeping the east coast from seeing snow all this time? It just needs to focus more and then the snow will come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'll never forget how that model nailed the early March storm of 2013. It was spooky how good it was. I think that was the last time it was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I was kidding of course, but when was the last time the GFS beat the Euro? I'm sure it's scored the coup before, but it's about as rare as a Vikings Super Bowl win. Oooops. I do like Fran Tarkenton though, so don't hate me. BTW - I'm a Cowboys fan, so you can blast away on me too. The Midwest event just two weeks ago. People have no perspective on how good models really are relative to actual atmospheric predictability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I think the main reason is the GFS sucks. If we stopped pretending it didn't we'd all be better off. Maybe it would even get fixed someday.Yep, maybe it will get fixed. If only they invested in making it better.I take this to mean you'll stop using it as a tool? Who uses a crappy model for guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The Midwest event just two weeks ago. People have no perspective on how good models really are relative to actual atmospheric predictability. I meant for us. Hahaha. I hear you though. I'm just frustrated like everyone else. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Tom Niziol from TWC says, enjoy your last week of winter east coast. The torch is roaring back. I hope he's wrong, but he's not wrong often. Good. Good riddance to this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I guess my post was deleted or whatever, but now everyone is chattering over the Euro for Sunday and I just want to note that earlier this morning we were trashing Ravens94 for hallucinating when he basically has been saying the same thing about the Sunday storm for days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 even a broken clock is right twice a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I guess my post was deleted or whatever, but now everyone is chattering over the Euro for Sunday and I just want to note that earlier this morning we were trashing Ravens94 for hallucinating when he basically has been saying the same thing about the Sunday storm for days... Well if one says the same thing for every possible threat, maybe one will hit it once in a while. Bastardi Rule. The Sunday thing is on life support, and tonight's event is going to produce moderate to heavy rain, the outcome we all expected based on the pattern and the guidance, and despite his days and days of tracking, wishcasting, and hallucinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I hope to be shoveling a ton of trend and fact sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 how are the SREFs these days? Any snow for the dreamers out there to hang on to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 how are the SREFs these days? Any snow for the dreamers out there to hang on to? Not on the 09z SREFs besides 1 member I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I guess my post was deleted or whatever, but now everyone is chattering over the Euro for Sunday and I just want to note that earlier this morning we were trashing Ravens94 for hallucinating when he basically has been saying the same thing about the Sunday storm for days... Is he your cousin or little brother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Not on the 09z SREFs besides 1 member I believe damn, not even SREF snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I guess my post was deleted or whatever, but now everyone is chattering over the Euro for Sunday and I just want to note that earlier this morning we were trashing Ravens94 for hallucinating when he basically has been saying the same thing about the Sunday storm for days... If we get anything I'll give him credit for the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I guess my post was deleted or whatever, but now everyone is chattering over the Euro for Sunday and I just want to note that earlier this morning we were trashing Ravens94 for hallucinating when he basically has been saying the same thing about the Sunday storm for days... ? I don't think anyone has ruled out some snow showers on Sunday. I've commented on it several times the last few days. I didn't read many of Raven's posts but I thought he was trying to show how this is going to back it's way into a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Is he your cousin or little brother? Phin being nice to people weirds me out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 ? I don't think anyone has ruled out some snow showers on Sunday. I've commented on it several times the last few days. I didn't read many of Raven's posts but I thought he was trying to show how this is going to back it's way into a big storm. he called coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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