WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I dont know about DC, but NBC up here tends to use the RPM for futurecast stuff And I don't think wunderground is that high res when it comes to models. So the output may be funky compared to other paysites. I'll never forget how that model nailed the early March storm of 2013. It was spooky how good it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This. No matter was his defender says, he's been awful as of late. Nothing wrong with optimism but he's gone beyond that. #facts Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I mean, he might even be semi tolerable if he didn't post 30 maps in every post. I think we all know where to find 500 mb vorticity panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 I appreciate the enthusiasm of some of our newer posters but sometimes it's best to take a knee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I mean, he might even be semi tolerable if he didn't post 30 maps in every post. I think we all know where to find 500 mb vorticity panels. Every map I post is to back up my point in that post so its not labeled a "wishcast" 500MB GFS maps are straight from the trend map. I do it so there is no question in what i said. The pictures are right there for people to look, I never look at just 1 run of a model the trend map is my way to go. Every 00z Model did go NW last night including the Ensembles. GEM ENS are even more NW. I don't post bull**** i post what i think and see then provide my Factual information in that case is the model runs from last night on that post the 3 GFS images showed a more amped faster solution and you didn't even have to leave the page to see the Trend-CMC-UK it was all there 12-00Z images for both for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The ensembles only seem to be able to tell us when it's going to warm up. Not sure they have been correct about anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 We all appreciate your desire to contribute, and learn, but you need to know a few things. We all know where H5 maps are, you don't need to post them for us. CMC and UK should never be used to set a "trend". They are support models if and when the GFS and Euro are showing the same solution Ensembles shouldn't be used for anything within 48 hours. So everything you are posting, doesn't do any of us much good, and honestly, you are just grasping for straws. If the GFS and Euro show similar solutions today, use the CMC and UK as support, otherwise, they aren't much use. I believe many of us here have tried to tell you that while you are posting information... it is just bad information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Can't wait to watch this on the big screen TV. It's like all of Ian's pictures put into motion, gorgeous! Happy Friday! http://gimundo.com/videos/view/check-out-this-amazing-time-lapse-video-edge-of-stability/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 We all appreciate your desire to contribute, and learn, but you need to know a few things. We all know where H5 maps are, you don't need to post them for us. CMC and UK should never be used to set a "trend". They are support models if and when the GFS and Euro are showing the same solution Ensembles shouldn't be used for anything within 48 hours. So everything you are posting, doesn't do any of us much good, and honestly, you are just grasping for straws. If the GFS and Euro show similar solutions today, use the CMC and UK as support, otherwise, they aren't much use. I believe many of us here have tried to tell you that while you are posting information... it is just bad information. Bad information to some is good information to others. Tons of negativity all in here But that wont ever bother me people just need a good solid storm. All 00Z models moved NW from 12z literally every model. if 12z models continue a move NW you cant discount it. model errors are still very high outside of 36 hours the past 3 months. Sampling on that energy starts this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Bad information is good information? I don't even... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Bad information to some is good information to others. Tons of negativity all in here But that wont ever bother me people just need a good solid storm. All 00Z models moved NW from 12z literally every model. if 12z models continue a move NW you cant discount it. model errors are still very high outside of 36 hours the past 3 months. Sampling on that energy starts this morning Take a knee, friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Bad information is good information? I don't even... What you think is bad could be good to others (Perception) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Bad information to some is good information to others. Tons of negativity all in here But that wont ever bother me people just need a good solid storm. All 00Z models moved NW from 12z literally every model. if 12z models continue a move NW you cant discount it. model errors are still very high outside of 36 hours the past 3 months. Sampling on that energy starts this morning Dude, look at the big picture. You focus too much on minor changes in the guidance that have no impact on sensible weather. And why are you even looking at ensembles for a short lead threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Dude, look at the big picture. You focus too much on minor changes in the guidance that have no impact on sensible weather. And why are you even looking at ensembles for a short lead threat? So you consider a faster vort to beat the kicker insignificant ? And i have looked at ensembles for years Especially the past 2 years because model performance has SUCKED. NAM shouldn't even be a model anymore. I don't just use The gem ens i use the NAEFS and euro ens also. they all moved NW last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Bad information is good information? I don't even... Gotta sort of catapult the propaganda, you know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What you think is bad could be good to others (Perception) suit yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Can't wait to watch this on the big screen TV. It's like all of Ian's pictures put into motion, gorgeous! Happy Friday! http://gimundo.com/videos/view/check-out-this-amazing-time-lapse-video-edge-of-stability/ Stunning! Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Good ol' para giving us the finger even at 300+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 So you consider a faster vort to beat the kicker insignificant ? And i have looked at ensembles for years Especially the past 2 years because model performance has SUCKED. NAM shouldn't even be a model anymore. I don't just use The gem ens i use the NAEFS and euro ens also. they all moved NW last night You forgot the hashtag at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Take a knee, friend. He may be setting up to take a Vikings style game winning fg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 He may be setting up to take a Vikings style game winning fg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 We could normally get our fix by driving to Davis or Deep Creek, but they're also having an awful winter....worse than ours actually. Pretty crazy that Davis hasn't hit 15" for the season on January 15th. Think many assumed the interior would do OK this winter too. Still time but rough start for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Mind blown Bad is good Wrong is right Death is life Perception is all I needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 EURO schooled the GFS on the current storm coming out of the gulf, never wavered with it's closer to the coast track. Pretty remarkable how skilled it is compared to all the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 EURO schooled the GFS on the current storm coming out of the gulf, never wavered with it's closer to the coast track. Pretty remarkable how skilled it is compared to all the other models.Remember the schooling the euro gave the gfs on that hurricane fail last fall. It's embarrassing how horrible it is. It seems to get schooled pretty regularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'd say we can expect the Long Range thread to slow down a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I picture the scientists who designed the EURO smoking cigars and toasting whiskey each time it schools the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What's up with the GFS lately though. It's bouncing around a lot more than usual it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Tom Niziol from TWC says, enjoy your last week of winter east coast. The torch is roaring back. I hope he's wrong, but he's not wrong often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What's up with the GFS lately though. It's bouncing around a lot more than usual it seems I wonder if its just this particular pattern it is having issues with. I mean threats go from 60-0 in like one run. I can't just be because someone started a thread prematurely 8 days out...there has to be some meteorological reason. right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I wonder if its just this particular pattern it is having issues with. I mean threats go from 60-0 in like one run. I can't just be because someone started a thread prematurely 8 days out...there has to be some meteorological reason. right? I think the main reason is the GFS sucks. If we stopped pretending it didn't we'd all be better off. Maybe it would even get fixed someday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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