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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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I think the standard deviation for december is higher.  March 2012 might be the highest of them all.

 

February 2015 was more anomalous on a standard dev level since February at BOS/ORH has about 0.3-0.4F less for a standard dev than December.

 

I'm not sure for other sites, but I know in SNE, December has a higher standard dev than February.

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4-9" N of I84 is a massacre?

 

Nice storm threat.

 

For Mass. Here's how I break it down using the 18z gfs Precip map:

 

Hr 186 -     .5" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would  = 5 inches

hr  189 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  192 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  195 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  198   -   .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  201  -    .5" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 5 inches

hr 204   -     .25" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 2.5 inches 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Totals      4.25" of QPF giving Most of Mass 42.5 inches.

 

If I'm wrong, tell me how you would do the math. I'd love to learn.   

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For Mass. Here's how I break it down using the 18z gfs Precip map:

 

Hr 186 -     .5" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would  = 5 inches

hr  189 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  192 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  195 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  198   -   .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  201  -    .5" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 5 inches

hr 204   -     .25" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 2.5 inches 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Totals      4.25" of QPF giving Most of Mass 42.5 inches.

 

If I'm wrong, tell me how you would do the math. I'd love to learn.   

I don't know what you looked at, but I see nothing like that on wxbell.

I hope to hell you are right.

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I don't know what you looked at, but I see nothing like that on wxbell.

I hope to hell you are right.

Here's where I'm getting the depictions. It's the NOAA site:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_186_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=186&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_189_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=189&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=192&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_195_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=195&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_198_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=198&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_201_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=201&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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For Mass. Here's how I break it down using the 18z gfs Precip map:

 

Hr 186 -     .5" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would  = 5 inches

hr  189 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  192 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  195 -     .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  198   -   .75" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 7.5 inches 

hr  201  -    .5" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 5 inches

hr 204   -     .25" of precip with a QPF ratio of 10:1 would = 2.5 inches 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Totals      4.25" of QPF giving Most of Mass 42.5 inches.

 

If I'm wrong, tell me how you would do the math. I'd love to learn.   

 

 

I think you're overlapping. The precip is probably 6 and/or 12-hour precip, not 3-hour precip. 

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Here's where I'm getting the depictions. It's the NOAA site:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_186_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=186&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_189_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=189&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=192&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_195_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=195&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_198_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=198&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_201_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=201&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160101+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

Randy do yourself a favor and bookmark this, does the math for you

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KIJD

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