MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I think Euro is going to do the deed...phasing sooner. 12z came to gather late. Euro is ugly for storm 1. Cuts through the lakes. Looks good for NNE. Should be interesting to see the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Euro is ugly for storm 1. Cuts through the lakes. Looks good for NNE. Should be interesting to see the EPS. Must get it faster. I don't see how it does through the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Euro is ugly for storm 1. Cuts through the lakes. Looks good for NNE. Should be interesting to see the EPS. It's not far from a sne hit with decent confluence and a triple point siding under sne. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I thought it would transfer to the coast sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Must get it faster. I don't see how it does through the block. Don't see a cutter? I don't see one either. Like you said, I think it's going to hit a wall and then either go eastward or redevelop. It's not far from a sne hit with decent confluence and a triple point siding under sne. Plenty of time. Agree. It finally transfers to the coast at 198. Maine is getting a good hit at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Patently obvious that the trend on both the GFS and EURO is to eject the whole piece of energy from the southwest, as opposed to just piece like 12z did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Worse than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Worse than 12z No 2nd storm on the Euro. Lets see the ensembles. It has been way different than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 EPS pretty much identical to the op.....hair colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Actually, the mean is further nw because some se outliers are gone....but the best clustering is just of LI to just south of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Second is clustered near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 That sounds good maybe we finally go through some SN+ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 That sounds good maybe we finally go through some SN+ Sent from my iPhone 1" OES.....Maybe 2" outter and upper cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Don't see a cutter? I don't see one either. Like you said, I think it's going to hit a wall and then either go eastward or redevelop. Agree. It finally transfers to the coast at 198. Maine is getting a good hit at this hour. The Euro has become obsessed with cutters beyond 120-144 since the upgrade in 2009 or 10, even in unfavorable patterns for them with raging -NAOs. That said this is not that unfavorable a cutter pattern, I can certainly see it, though not to the extent of the system just a few days ago. The problem is the high does not look as good this time so I don't think many places would do better. I would not worry too much unless the Euro locks onto this until inside 110-120, it really seems to love cutting things the last several years now in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 NWS has me getting 3-5" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 There won't be any cutters with the NAO coming around Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The only way this system cuts is if the polar vortex circulation pulls in the STJ disturbance Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The first storm looks more for far interior or CNE/NNE. Crappy airmass ahead of it. 7-8 days out and it could change with volatile setup that models won't handle well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I agree it looks like we get rain to start followed by snow afterwards Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I agree it looks like we get rain to start followed by snow afterwards Sent from my iPhone [/quote Well it could be snow for places like ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Decent winter cancel uncancel, Some just don't learn. don't do it, Jeff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Scott with the NAO at neutral I would suspect that the PV will have every reason to ruin our snow chances Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2016 Author Share Posted January 2, 2016 You wonder if the Friday night storm is ice inland away from coast?Has that look of rain at coast ice not too far inland and snow farther north. (Based on Euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Ouch at hour 240: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_0z/mrf240.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Looks like GFS eventually sucks the PV into the US Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I think that the second storm if it really deepens that rapidly is going to have a tough time changing over to rain in coastal NE as it depicts at hour 240. I think it will be sleet or snow, and with that setup could be at a rate of 2"+ per hour. In that frame, you can clearly see that the system taps into the STJ and begins to deepen rapidly. I would expect the event to begin as wet snow, change to sleet, and then transition back to snow with high ratios as the low passes off to the east of the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Any time you have a low east of cape cod and that deep it has taped into cold air, and that backside precip is likely all snow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I think that the second storm if it really deepens that rapidly is going to have a tough time changing over to rain in coastal NE as it depicts at hour 240. I think it will be sleet or snow, and with that setup could be at a rate of 2"+ per hour. In that frame, you can clearly see that the system taps into the STJ and begins to deepen rapidly. I would expect the event to begin as wet snow, change to sleet, and then transition back to snow with high ratios as the low passes off to the east of the cape. The second storm is way out there and should be more favorable than the 1st storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 On a side note, could someone explain the significance of "SWFE"? I keep seeing it mentioned on this forum. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 On a side note, could someone explain the significance of "SWFE"? I keep seeing it mentioned on this forum. Thanks! upper air is south west, south west flow event, basically warm air over running cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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