leo2000 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yeah if we were looking at some type of stratospheric warming disrupting the PV this could be more permanent. Seems like the PV disruption in the troposphere isn't from any stratospheric stuff. That said D10-D15 there is a split in the tropospheric PV while the polar vortex remains exceptionally strong in the stratosphere. Maybe it's working from the bottom layer the troposphere then the warmth works it's way up to the stratosphere the top layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 yea day 15 GEFS sucks I dont take any stock in what the week 4 thoughts are. I mean just look back a week to ten days in this forum, Kev must have posted 10 tweets calling for a continuous torch. So do you take stock in the 2m temp map you posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 So do you take stock in the 2m temp map you posted?day 15 map versus day 28? Follow along,the map was posted in response to a post saying day 15 GEFS was AN. Yes I guess yes would be my answer, well along with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Isn't there suppose to be a bigger event WAF wave coming in the second week of January according to Dr. Judah Cohen?. Here is his latest update here. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I dont take any stock in what the week 4 thoughts are. I mean just look back a week to ten days in this forum, Kev must have posted 10 tweets calling for a continuous torch. This-100%!!! Great post Steve. And I'm always of the adage to enjoy the here and now..and if it turns out to be as good as it could be, this could be fun as he**!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Maybe it's working from the bottom layer the troposphere then the warmth works it's way up to the stratosphere the top layer. That can happen - though in this case the stratospheric vortex is an absolute beast. No sign on models that the stratospheric PV is weakening. Leads credence to a more temporary -AO pattern. Of course a SSW in February could mean a rocking end to winter. That would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 That can happen - though in this case the stratospheric vortex is an absolute beast. No sign on models that the stratospheric PV is weakening. Leads credence to a more temporary -AO pattern. Of course a SSW in February could mean a rocking end to winter. That would be nice. this works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Still tons of spread next weekend on the GEFS/EPS. Options on the table range from rain storm on Friday night to blizzard on Sunday. It appears the Euro Ensemble means are hinting at 2 camps - the earlier camp which features cutter/E Coast cyclogenesis on Saturday and another camp that holds everything off until a strong coastal on Sunday. Doesn't really look like 2 events - just big timing differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Well then, we'll all just have to enjoy the two week cold spell, and hope to get a storm or two out of it. Yesterday, the ensembles couldn't have looked any Better. Today we're going back above normal by months end. As Ginxy said, it isn't going to be cold non stop, there will be ups and downs. And as long as December doesn't come walking through the the door for February, it should be fine. Fortunately, much of the region can support snow in above normal temps. Within reason of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Still tons of spread next weekend on the GEFS/EPS. Options on the table range from rain storm on Friday night to blizzard on Sunday. It appears the Euro Ensemble means are hinting at 2 camps - the earlier camp which features cutter/E Coast cyclogenesis on Saturday and another camp that holds everything off until a strong coastal on Sunday. Doesn't really look like 2 events - just big timing differences. I personally enjoy the 18z GFS running our storm into IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 GFS Friday at 4pm has double barrel low in MO/KS with strong HP directly to the north keeping the system from running into Chicago. Storm may be slower this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Transfer to the NC coast occurs Sat morning where the secondary forms. Looks like a colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Wait 6 hrs, nice snowstorm, SNE turn this run. Looks like the Euro Ens mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 GFS Friday at 4pm has double barrel low in MO/KS with strong HP directly to the north keeping the system from running into Chicago. Storm may be slower this run? It is slower. Also, much better look on 00z vs 18z. The high to the north is pushing down much more, while the storm in the midwest is slower and further east. At hr 156 the 540 thickness line is 100-150 miles further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Yep all of CT, RI, and Mass stay frozen this run unless I'm overlooking any warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Yep all of CT, RI, and Mass stay frozen this run unless I'm overlooking any warm layer. A bit of rain or mix at the beginning south of pike, but as the low develops the cold air really takes over. We need to see confirmation from cmc and euro before getting too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Yep all of CT, RI, and Mass stay frozen this run unless I'm overlooking any warm layer.no its a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Looks like we get a transfer..... Nice solution for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Nice little bomb too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 It is slower. Also, much better look on 00z vs 18z. The high to the north is pushing down much more, while the storm in the midwest is slower and further east. At hr 156 the 540 thickness line is 100-150 miles further south. Yep really changes the look of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 jeez - look at the MOnday PM deal. Holy moly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Pretty slow mover.... That's a long snowstorm for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 no its a snowstorm Sweet. I thought it appeared that way. Knowing you, you probably already have numbers to prove it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Pretty slow mover.... That's a long snowstorm for the area What's the start stop time (roughly)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 LOL..... The follow up system is a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 jeez - look at the MOnday PM deal. Holy moly.does that really say 962 or 982,hard to see on.my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 jeez - look at the MOnday PM deal. Holy moly. Too wound up for a good part of SNE. Lots of warm Atlantic moisture with the above normal water temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Too wound up for a good part of SNE. Lots of warm Atlantic moisture with the above normal water temperatures. 200+ hours out but I doubt it would be that warm with a sub 970 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Lol weenie hall of fame folder for Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Too wound up for a good part of SNE. Lots of warm Atlantic moisture with the above normal water temperatures.seriously who cares, Id hit it anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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