USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 That Arctic jet looks more amplified than what the 12z models had Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 By D15 the +EPO roars back. Definitely doesn't look cold by the end of the run. Ugh, I hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 IDK -8 at 850? 534 heights? Thats winter in my hood, PNA still looks good, disagree about roaring back too. The end of the ensembles look very similar to the second half of January, 1958. The primary difference this month is we have more negative EPO / AK ridging for at least 7-10 days, which will almost certainly result in a colder January temperature departure than 1958 (which was near normal). Remember the EPO was always expected to be predominantly positive this winter (at least until February); the negative EPO over the next couple weeks is really a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Once that Arctic front reaches the coast low pressure forms south of the benchmark. Some of that moisture could help enhance snowfall across Cape and Nantucket Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Ugh, I hope not Its way out there and still cold for the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Ugh, I hope notlol Dec aint coming back, the roaring back hyperbole got you though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 By D15 the +EPO roars back. Definitely doesn't look cold by the end of the run. Are the GEFS showing a similar return to the +EPO at that time too? I hope this isn't one of those pattern changes where we can already see its demise before we even enter it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Are the GEFS showing a similar return to the +EPO at that time too? I hope this isn't one of those pattern changes where we can already see its demise before we even enter it. Yes by day 15 it does...hopefully they are rushing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Lol geezus, lets just ignore the PNA, man one comment about EPO and winter cancel. I give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Lol geezus, lets just ignore the PNA, man one comment about EPO and winter cancel. I give up. Just telling the man what it was showing...again I'm in the camp of a relaxation then more fun in Febuary. I think the gefs and euro are rushing the relaxation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Are the GEFS showing a similar return to the +EPO at that time too? I hope this isn't one of those pattern changes where we can already see its demise before we even enter it. yea day 15 GEFS sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Just telling the man what it was showing...again I'm in the camp of a relaxation then more fun in Febuary. I think the gefs and euro are rushing the relaxationnot you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Its way out there and still cold for the east. True but we need that polar vortex to split for a good locked in cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Lol geezus, lets just ignore the PNA, man one comment about EPO and winter cancel. I give up. I think all along the concern was how long the cold pattern would last. Looks like there's pretty good support for a cold middle of January and a mild end of January. No one's taking your cold away but as Jerry mentioned the end of the ensembles definitely show some discouraging signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I think all along the concern was how long the cold pattern would last. Looks like there's pretty good support for a cold middle of January and a mild end of January. No one's taking your cold away but as Jerry mentioned the end of the ensembles definitely show some discouraging signs. It's looks like a polar vortex split is coming on the 2nd of January so wouldn't that bring about a ssw?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I think a SSW EVENT, causes the splitting of the PV. Not the other way around. And nothing has split yet. He may(DT) may think it's going to split, but it hasn't at this point. And there may not be a split...that's not a definite thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I think a SSW EVENT, causes the splitting of the PV. Not the other way around. And nothing has split yet. He may(DT) may think it's going to split, but it hasn't at this point. And there may not be a split...that's not a definite thing. I am sorry I am obviously still very much learning. You should check out this recent post it has the maps to prove that the PV has split already. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47528-yes-the-pv-has-split/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I think all along the concern was how long the cold pattern would last. Looks like there's pretty good support for a cold middle of January and a mild end of January. No one's taking your cold away but as Jerry mentioned the end of the ensembles definitely show some discouraging signs. meh,my cold? Lol I will take what the Ens show all day, it's winter. Your hyperbole aside its normal to have relaxation days. Dec isnt in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Oh don't be sorry Leo, I'm learning too and have been for a long time lol. Maybe somebody more in the know can chime in, and see what DT is talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Oh don't be sorry Leo, I'm learning too and have been for a long time lol. Maybe somebody more in the know can chime in, and see what DT is talking about?PV doesnt split, troposphere is not stratosphere. PV elongates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2016 Author Share Posted January 2, 2016 @edvalleewx Further supports transient cold. Back above normal late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Well then, we'll all just have to enjoy the two week cold spell, and hope to get a storm or two out of it. Yesterday, the ensembles couldn't have looked any Better. Today we're going back above normal by months end. As Ginxy said, it isn't going to be cold non stop, there will be ups and downs. And as long as December doesn't come walking through the the door for February, it should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Deep deep winter about to envelope the country, model volatility run to run continues. Arctic cold shot,moderation then big time cold with an active STJ. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Well then, we'll all just have to enjoy the two week cold spell, and hope to get a storm or two out of it. Yesterday, the ensembles couldn't have looked any Better. Today we're going back above normal by months end. As Ginxy said, it isn't going to be cold non stop, there will be ups and downs. And as long as December doesn't come walking through the the door for February, it should be fine. I dont take any stock in what the week 4 thoughts are. I mean just look back a week to ten days in this forum, Kev must have posted 10 tweets calling for a continuous torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 All in all if by Jan 20th we aren't AN snow and BN temps I would be extremely surprised. Enjoy. Debbies gonna Debbie, but Frigidaires gonna enjoy the here and now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 All in all if by Jan 20th we aren't AN snow and BN temps I would be extremely surprised. Enjoy. Debbies gonna Debbie, but Frigidaires gonna enjoy the here and now There were plenty of winters in the 80s where places in the NE and SNE were very cold and did not snow. We've tended to avoid that for the most part the last 15 years but inevitably we are going to see a stretch or multiple ones eventually where that occurs. This does not seem like one where it will, but its always possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 There were plenty of winters in the 80s where places in the NE and SNE were very cold and did not snow. We've tended to avoid that for the most part the last 15 years but inevitably we are going to see a stretch or multiple ones eventually where that occurs. This does not seem like one where it will, but its always possible.hmm which JAN was that in the 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 PV doesnt split, troposphere is not stratosphere. PV elongates. Yeah if we were looking at some type of stratospheric warming disrupting the PV this could be more permanent. Seems like the PV disruption in the troposphere isn't from any stratospheric stuff. That said D10-D15 there is a split in the tropospheric PV while the polar vortex remains exceptionally strong in the stratosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yeah if we were looking at some type of stratospheric warming disrupting the PV this could be more permanent. Seems like the PV disruption in the troposphere isn't from any stratospheric stuff. That said D10-D15 there is a split in the tropospheric PV while the polar vortex remains exceptionally strong in the stratosphere. PV temps are insanely cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 All in all if by Jan 20th we aren't AN snow and BN temps I would be extremely surprised. Enjoy. Debbies gonna Debbie, but Frigidaires gonna enjoy the here and now I'm with you, Steve. Pretty excited by the upcoming period. Could break unlucky, but there will be plenty of opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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