Not me in VT Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 On a side note, could someone explain the significance of "SWFE"? I keep seeing it mentioned on this forum. Thanks!South West flow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Is that mentioned as a formative/contributing factor to a developing storm system or in response to one...? In the context of El Niño would you expect this to be in conjunction with the STJ or am I off base here? My apologies for stupid questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Is that mentioned as a formative/contributing factor to a developing storm system or in response to one...? In the context of El Niño would you expect this to be in conjunction with the STJ or am I off base here? My apologies for stupid questions.each storm is different,unrelated to Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 So it's just a general term to describe flow into a system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 So it's just a general term to describe flow into a system?Yes, mid level flow is south west. Depending of strength of flow, strength and position of high will determine precip form. Different from mid levels synoptics say south of LI. Can be prolific, see 12-13-07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Eps is targeting 1/11 as the most fun day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2016 Author Share Posted January 2, 2016 Sometimes when we see 2 storms modeled back to back and belly to belly like this..they end up morphing into 1 main event..or sort of like a weaker overrunning deal with round 1 and then the big one soon thereafter, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The Euro has become obsessed with cutters beyond 120-144 since the upgrade in 2009 or 10, even in unfavorable patterns for them with raging -NAOs. That said this is not that unfavorable a cutter pattern, I can certainly see it, though not to the extent of the system just a few days ago. The problem is the high does not look as good this time so I don't think many places would do better. I would not worry too much unless the Euro locks onto this until inside 110-120, it really seems to love cutting things the last several years now in the long range. yeah, it's actually just a middle range bias ...everywhere, with that model. it tends to deepen toughs a tad too much - or so it seems. it's sneaky in the way it goes about doing it. like, if one goes back and looks at the hard numbers ...it doesn't seem (for some reason) to show up in the verification - but the model definitely finds a way to turn systems polarward too early in their life-cycles. and ...it all in part manifests its self by seemingly being too 'depthy' with the parental troughs that gave birth to the cyclones. contrasting, it seems to have too much north component on the east slopes of ridges ... sort of a chicken and egg thing there; is the trough too deep, or the ridge too tall? it's almost like what's really going on is that the model isn't too far off assessing the depth of nadirs and heights at the nodal cores of the dips and elevations in the atmosphere, but it is perhaps wrong about the 'angular trajectories' that curve around those features. having too much north-south character in the curvi-linear sense could certainly give the illusion of 'too deep', or 'too tall' with the troughs and ridge. interesting... anyway, i have not seen any papers or write-ups by any official sources on this, yet it is something that most operational mets and ...eh hm, obsessive types that spend too much time on weather forums ( ) know full well is 'real'. somewhere in between reality lurks there... in any event, because of it all we witness at the times, the model bullying ridge rims down over new england and southeast canada too much in the spring and summer. it takes small innocuous perturbations in the flow over the rockies, whether it be from mountain torque around shasta to a wayward thunderstorm complex in montana (take a pick), and propagates way too much influence downstream. if one is tracking early heat in the upper ov/ne regioins from april to june, the euro is probably the last model to use - man! yet it's spot on in the 'whether a system at all is going to take place' -- it's hard to trade this latter performance. we'd like to know if a system out there on d6/7 or 8 ...is actually not just some computer enhanced/fractal emergent dream that goes poof when time cleaves open the eyes of uncertainty in the shorter time range. but even the euro has a d9 fantasy from time to time - tru dhat! ...so maybe not. heh. at this point, i tend to trust the model knows the systems are real at d6.5; i don't trust at all that it has much of a clue wrt the attributes/affects ...whether explicit or implicit on the charts. having said all that ...more so than the usual incredulity for middle and extended time ranges, i don't think any model has much clue right now. i've mentioned several times over the last several days that there is an unusually large amount of individual wave contention/interferences going on... so it is making it virtually impossible for any model to hone into a specific spatial-temporal object in the circulation medium. seems like that kids game where the clown head pops up through the holes, and you get points for hammering it before it disappears on the next model run, only to pop up over here ...then over there, no wait! as is, ...for me that system on the 00z euro is about as much a carbon copy of this last sleet bomb as is imaginatively possible in the fluid medium of the atmosphere. with everything that can happen in the nebular game of weather, that's remarkably similar. big high arms into eastern canada with cold seep/drain into our region ...system tries to go to the lakes...slams into confluences ...minors out east, but not before doing a qpf band from oh to lower maine. sound familiar. i still think on basal level we have a strong +PNA, and -EPO tendencies, working in tandem with a strong phase 7 mjo ... the only thing certain to me is that if nothing should avail of all that over the next two to three weeks it will be an epic waste of potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2016 Author Share Posted January 2, 2016 Single digits Tuesday morning. Too bad we don't have much snow cover..or they'd really tank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Sometimes when we see 2 storms modeled back to back and belly to belly like this..they end up morphing into 1 main event..or sort of like a weaker overrunning deal with round 1 and then the big one soon thereafter,I was thinking that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I was thinking that too. Or ... like in Dec 1996, 'sometimes when we don't see 2 storms modeled back to back and belly to belly like this ... ' blah blah blah. it can happen - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Std gfs op runs...gives weenie solutions one min then all out rain storm followed by a whiff the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 El Epic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2016 Author Share Posted January 2, 2016 What Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 To bad the GGEM sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 CMC on shrooms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Std gfs op runs...gives weenie solutions one min then all out rain storm followed by a whiff the next. Ensembles are the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Ensembles are the way to go Obv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Well the one thing that seems clear is the cold....the really smart guy in nyc (PBFI?) says wait til mid month or after....he is def one of the best posters in that forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2016 Author Share Posted January 2, 2016 Well the one thing that seems clear is the cold....the really smart guy in nyc (PBFI?) says wait til mid month or after....he is def one of the best posters in that forum He's talking about NYC south which is the mid atl.. different in New Eng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Well the one thing that seems clear is the cold....the really smart guy in nyc (PBFI?) says wait til mid month or after....he is def one of the best posters in that forum Him and Isotherm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 He's talking about NYC south which is the mid atl.. different in New Eng it doesnt hurt to know whats going on down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 He's talking about NYC south which is the mid atl.. different in New EngNo he isn't. Real pattern is after mid month, as he and I have always maintained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Nipply cold There are multitudes of very knowledgeable posters some don't post frequently. Most members gravitate to SNE to read a more accurate interpretation with sound reasoning. I denote a sense of red-flagitis with valid reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 CMC manages to take the 10th storm near the benchmark and still produce a heavy rainstorm for SNE..... NNE does well though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2016 Author Share Posted January 2, 2016 No he isn't. Real pattern is after mid month, as he and I have always maintained The real pattern starts with the storm(s) next weekend for New England..after the 2nd one..that's the mechanism that pulls down the extended cold. NYC south is different as the first storm for them may be rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 End of the gefs is a tad worrisome. We'll see what the future holds but it may be the first signal of the end of the nice pattern probably targeted around the beginning of February. This is not a forecast, just a potential speculation. Then again, cmc ensembles say lol wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 End of the gefs is a tad worrisome. We'll see what the future holds but it may be the first signal of the end of the nice pattern probably targeted around the beginning of February. This is not a forecast, just a potential speculation. Then again, cmc ensembles say lol wut? ? The GEFs seem fine.Still +PNA -AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 End of the gefs is a tad worrisome. We'll see what the future holds but it may be the first signal of the end of the nice pattern probably targeted around the beginning of February. This is not a forecast, just a potential speculation. Then again, cmc ensembles say lol wut? I think we relax a bit after the 20th with more of a pac jet influence...doesn't mean no snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 headed to Japan for week of 11th so hoping for pattern change complete after 16th .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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