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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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what I mean why is it only the 18z with the monster storms like yesterday afternoon I know the potential is there But it seems only the 18z gives us the true weekie Storm

Today's 12z JMA, as an example, would have been similar to yesterday's 18z GFS. Expect a wild ride over the next few days as models try to key in on the right pieces of energy. The periods to watch are the 1/17-1/19 and 1/20-1/22. A historic pattern is about to set up for a couple of weeks. Much higher chances than usual to cash in on something sizable.

 

Would be nice to topple the astronomically low stats on NYC Winter snow totals after getting no snow in December+.

 

Here was the JMA today

 

jma_z500_vort_namer_9.png

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Today's 12z JMA, as an example, would have been similar to yesterday's 18z GFS. Expect a wild ride over the next few days as models try to key in on the right pieces of energy. The periods to watch are the 1/17-1/19 and 1/20-1/22. A historic pattern is about to set up for a couple of weeks. Much higher chances than usual to cash in on something sizable.

 

Would be nice to topple the astronomically low stats on NYC Winter snow totals after getting no snow in December+.

 

Here was the JMA today

 

jma_z500_vort_namer_9.png

Trying hard not to live and die with each model and their respective runs. We've seen just about every conceivable solution from a HECS to an OTS and  everything in between and we're still over a week away. One promising thing to consider in all this mayhem is that the models consistently show a storm. That's why I'm pretty confident we will cash in on a sizable snow event during the dates you mentioned. How much is yet to be determined.

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GFS 0z run is a bit stronger by (3 millibars) with the clipper and digging a bit more by hour 90...

Edit: by hour 96, 102 and 108 it flies by as an disorganized wave that produces a dusting at best. Much less than 18z though it looked more organized when in the upper Michigan. Many more runs to go but it doesn't look like a blockbuster to say the least. On to the next system of Jan 17th

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heard the jma was a dream look on the mid atl thread

and since when do we EVEr listen to the JMA. I think this much can be said, even seriou Mets are talking about a potential storm 9 days out, this reflects the dearth of chances. But we are in a significantly better pattern. Lets just have the Sun storm bomb out in the 50/50 and go from there

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0z Euro showed a 966 low just east of the benchmark at 168. Just missed a huge snowstorm on this run for next weekend. Way earlier than every other model. We still see some snow.

Is that may be the best news I've heard all day and it is a sizable LP I'm actually happy we're not in the bullseye right now
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There are several powerful  short  waves  in the the southern jet stream.  The 0z  Saturday European  takes the shortwave at 120 hours over Texas and Oklahoma and develops into a major snowstorm for NC  VA MD  DEL and slides   the Low off the coast clipping Cape Cod .

 

The  0z GFS  sees that  shortwave over Texas and Oklahoma at 120 hours BUT it crushes into a weak   flat system  in the Gulf at 144   the surface Low  does not develop into anything significant.  Instead the  0z  GFS has a moderate amount of snow and ice from Tennessee Valley and portions of NC  VA followed by a weak LOW   that slides off the coast.

 

Instead the GFS focuses on an next shortwave coming out of the SW states and develops that one is the major East Coast snowstorm at 234 hours 

 

I have no idea which solution is correct but I will say that given the fact that we are dealing with a strong enhance  STJ  and the fact that the GFS loves to crush the   short waves in the southern jet stream during Arctic outbreaks  that the GFS solution for January 15-16 - ( the weak  wave of Low pressure)  is  probably bogus and the European solution is more likely to be correct 

 

And there may be a second a significant system after January 20

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JMA?     who hell  looks at the JMA? 

 

Today's 12z JMA, as an example, would have been similar to yesterday's 18z GFS. Expect a wild ride over the next few days as models try to key in on the right pieces of energy. The periods to watch are the 1/17-1/19 and 1/20-1/22. A historic pattern is about to set up for a couple of weeks. Much higher chances than usual to cash in on something sizable.

 

Would be nice to topple the astronomically low stats on NYC Winter snow totals after getting no snow in December+.

 

Here was the JMA today

 

jma_z500_vort_namer_9.png

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There are several powerful  short  waves  in the the southern jet stream.  The 0z  Saturday European  takes the shortwave at 120 hours over Texas and Oklahoma and develops into a major snowstorm for NC  VA MD  DEL and slides   the Low off the coast clipping Cape Cod .
 
The  0z GFS  sees that  shortwave over Texas and Oklahoma at 120 hours BUT it crushes into a weak   flat system  in the Gulf at 144   the surface Low  does not develop into anything significant.  Instead the  0z  GFS has a moderate amount of snow and ice from Tennessee Valley and portions of NC  VA followed by a weak LOW   that slides off the coast.
 
Instead the GFS focuses on an next shortwave coming out of the SW states and develops that one is the major East Coast snowstorm at 234 hours 
 
I have no idea which solution is correct but I will say that given the fact that we are dealing with a strong enhance  STJ  and the fact that the GFS loves to crush the   short waves in the southern jet stream during Arctic outbreaks  that the GFS solution for January 15-16 - ( the weak  wave of Low pressure)  is  probably bogus and the European solution is more likely to be correct 
 
And there may be a second a significant system after January 20

 

Good post Dave. This pattern is a ticking timebomb with a lot of shortwaves embedded in it. The models are focusing on different waves to blow up. Should be really interesting to see what happens. I can't believe some people were actually about to give up on this winter lol

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Good post Dave. This pattern is a ticking timebomb with a lot of shortwaves embedded in it. The models are focusing on different waves to blow up. Should be really interesting to see what happens. I can't believe some people were actually about to give up on this winter lol

 

I would bet that we get through January with little or no snow instead of a ticking time bomb event.

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JMA?     who hell  looks at the JMA? 

 

The question was asked whether that 18z GFS the other day was the only one showing a big solution. I posted the JMA from yesterday to illustrate that it is not the only model that is/would have shown a big snow event. Not to say the JMA is right, of course. The JMA solution could have been and likely has been showing up on individual ensemble runs as well. The point being that a prolific blocking regime looks to be setting up in a couple of days and there will be lots of northern stream energy getting trapped under the block, giving us storm chances. Timing plays a big role. Saying the same thing as you in your other post above. The two time periods I have been looking at our 1/16-1/18 and 1/21-1/23.

 

Cheers.

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That 00z GFS, really blows the Jan 20th storm up, still OTS, but lots of time obviously

And CMC has a monster interior storm Jan 17/18 timeframe lol

Should be a fun week or two

Given the strength of the Block and the depicted location on most guidance, especially the ensembles at this range, an inside runner/Ohio Valley/Apps Runner event seem extremely unlikely. Storm track would be farther South with 2ndary cyclogenesis also occurring farther South and earlier with a rapidly weakening primary. 

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Isn't that how every Storm works? lol

Exactly, and that is why I remind you all to hear those words before getting hyped up to a distant storm that disappoints.  Anyway, I guess it is like buying a mega ball lottery ticket.  You'll all excited that you might win the million, billion and the next day you are just disappointed.  

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Exactly, and that is why I remind you all to hear those words before getting hyped up to a distant storm that disappoints.  Anyway, I guess it is like buying a mega ball lottery ticket.  You'll all excited that you might win the million, billion and the next day you are just disappointed.  

 

If I win that powerball jackpot, we get to chase the next epic blizzard.....All of us...

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