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December Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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12z EURO at 144 looks like a pounding again for next Mon night into Tuesday morning... 999 SLP right near or over ORF with the h5 energy being captured its seems... 168 has it moving east away from the East Coast

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

Who here would have said no to that map if you had posted it in August and said hey, this is for the second week of December?

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Not making any claims about the validity of this info, but this is something to think about for those concerned about the strength of the PV right now.

 

 

The following is a graph courtesy of meteorologist Ryan J. Ashoka. I have not personally verified the accuracy of the plot; however, it is consistent w/ stratospheric behavior/cycling. Specifically, if you have a weakened/highly weakened vortex in autumn/early winter, the probability is actually higher for a strengthening of the vortex for mid and late winter. Point being, the strong early vortex produces a statistical argument for the increased likelihood of a weakened winter vortex.

 

2d0h11w.png

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Euro solution interesting in that it has subzero 850s at the base of the backside in NC. Not sure that's snow but it's creating its own cold air! ;)

When I saw this storm popping up yesterday, I thought it might end up a high elevation snow.  I know right now the 850's are about 2-4 degrees from what I can see on the GFS, but that doesn't mean it will end up like that.

 

There might be some snow with this on the highest peaks.

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You're bringing their colloquialisms in here, too?!

 

AWT ;)

 

But yes, because it fits for our region... this is what ORH/Coastal said about the ensembles at Day 10 for up there, which leads me to believe we enjoy 60s late next week?  At day 10, 576DM h5 heights are knocking on DC's door with +10 to +12 850s :axe:

 

 

Euro ensembles are a furnace for D10...that's a really impressive warm signal for this far out.

 

 

 

Wow that is a torch..holy cow. 

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AWT ;)

But yes, because it fits for our region... this is what ORH/Coastal said about the ensembles at Day 10 for up there, which leads me to believe we enjoy 60s late next week? At day 10, 576DM h5 heights are knocking on DC's door with +10 to +12 850s :axe:

Did you see the Euro ensemble mean for day 10? Holy smokes that is just unthinkable warmth, if you thought the operational was bad, the ensemble mean blew it away. Even the GFS, which also dumps a full latitude trough down to Mexico in the west isn't as warm as the Euro, it's just crazy
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I can't take it anymore.  Was waiting to chime in for the first real threat, but it sounds like I could be waiting for hell to freeze over at this point--which could be fun just as well.  Anyway, hope everyone had a great spring, summer, and fall.  First time posting since last winter, but been lurking for a while.  So not in panic mode by any means as I knew Dec would be a pure S show, but i keep hearing mid to late month for a possible flip to winter and better snow odds?  Still feeling alright with this or should I book a trip to the Alps to see it snow? I like snow in the DMV more than the Alps, but have snow will travel. ;)

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Did you see the Euro ensemble mean for day 10? Holy smokes that is just unthinkable warmth, if you thought the operational was bad, the ensemble mean blew it away. Even the GFS, which also dumps a full latitude trough down to Mexico in the west isn't as warm as the Euro, it's just crazy

 

It's an absurd anomaly (particularly for Quebec), but not necessarily "baking" at ground level as far as I can read...  Def very warm for mid December though.

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AWT ;)

But yes, because it fits for our region... this is what ORH/Coastal said about the ensembles at Day 10 for up there, which leads me to believe we enjoy 60s late next week? At day 10, 576DM h5 heights are knocking on DC's door with +10 to +12 850s :axe:

To be honest, while a chance to track a snow threat would be nice, my expectations were low enough coming into December that torching now doesn't really faze me. If we see that extended look in another five weeks or so, then I might get antsy!

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To be honest, while a chance to track a snow threat would be nice, my expectations were low enough coming into December that torching now doesn't really faze me. If we see that extended look in another five weeks or so, then I might get antsy!

 

This month is going to try some folks for sure. Euro ens pretty much stink d11-15 with a lot of work to do before we see any meaningful cold and/or chances for snow. Hopefully over the next week or so things start to look better down the line. Unfortunately the general LW pattern we appear to be entering is one that has proven quite stubborn in the past. 

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There does seem to be a very active storm pattern in the next couple of weeks, especially along the coast. I like the fact that the storm on the 10th is a slow mover. Almost like it was being affected by some sort of block like the NAO is approaching going negative even though that may not happen for about three weeks, if then.

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This month is going to try some folks for sure. Euro ens pretty much stink d11-15 with a lot of work to do before we see any meaningful cold and/or chances for snow. Hopefully over the next week or so things start to look better down the line. Unfortunately the general LW pattern we appear to be entering is one that has proven quite stubborn in the past.

I agree that plenty of folks may well start losing it soon. It's not so much the warmth, but I agree that it's a lot to do with the general pattern that really seems stubborn.

My bum is getting a little squeaky, but I'm OK for now.

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Euro ens mean for next week's rainer is around .5 but it looks like the ens favor a more eastern track overall.

LR guidance across the board remains hideous. There isn't a glimmer of meaningful change through the next 15+ days. I personally doubt Dec (or this pattern in general) turns around quickly. It's going to be a process.

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Euro ens mean for next week's rainer is around .5 but it looks like the ens favor a more eastern track overall.

LR guidance across the board remains hideous. There isn't a glimmer of meaningful change through the next 15+ days. I personally doubt Dec (or this pattern in general) turns around quickly. It's going to be a process.

 

things are def locked in for a while.  The MJO must have broke too

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Euro ens mean for next week's rainer is around .5 but it looks like the ens favor a more eastern track overall.

LR guidance across the board remains hideous. There isn't a glimmer of meaningful change through the next 15+ days. I personally doubt Dec (or this pattern in general) turns around quickly. It's going to be a process.

 

Agree.  I don't thing we're going to see some "magical" big pattern change that snaps us out of this currently hostile one.  In fact if you look at the longer range GFS (yeah, I know!!), that's kind of what it implies:  it gets somewhat "less hostile" later on, whatever that is worth.  But it's not exactly wintry-looking.  I guess all we can hope for is to see it "step down" by the time we get into the early part of the New Year, and go from there.  And hope it doesn't go right back to where we are now!

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