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December Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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We probably will be warmer than last couple of winters.   I would imaging we see more rain than anything else.  We probably have a slightly better than average chance at seeing a HECS.  If we get a blocking pattern in January or February you can pretty much lock in a big event.

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The way the long range ensemble have looked for this coming week remind me of how December evolved last year.  We had a crappy pattern and then it looked like we were going to come out of it around Christmas and go into a favorable pattern and it turned into basically a transitory FROPA.  Now this year it was looking like the 1st week of December would be turning into a better pattern and now we're basically getting a couple days of ~climo temps. 

 

Guess the moral is that D10+ ensemble means can be wrong. 

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Guess the moral is that D10+ ensemble means can be wrong.

Yes they can. And often are during volatile patterns. But right now there is really some overwhelming evidence we are going into one of the worst types of winter patterns and similar ones in the past have been pretty damn stubborn.

I don't look too far down the road. Dec is looking pretty ghastly right now. And I've accepted the possibility that it could last well into the second half of the month if not longer. Of course I'll start posting about the earliest signs of things breaking down but it might be a while. 94 and 06 are plastered all over cpc analogs right now. Yuk.

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Yes they can. And often are during volatile patterns. But right now there is really some overwhelming evidence we are going into one of the worst types of winter patterns and similar ones in the past have been pretty damn stubborn.

I don't look too far down the road. Dec is looking pretty ghastly right now. And I've accepted the possibility that it could last well into the second half of the month if not longer. Of course I'll start posting about the earliest signs of things breaking down but it might be a while. 94 and 06 are plastered all over cpc analogs right now. Yuk.

And, a week ago, '09 and '02 were in the analogs. Meh.

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And, a week ago, '09 and '02 were in the analogs. Meh.

For a fleeting glimpse. 94 and 06 have been there for days. I'm confident we are in for an extended rough stretch. A fluke is never off the table but the signal for no cold air anywhere is strong. Canada is going to roast compared to their normals. Mitch won't be posting his favorite crayon temp maps anytime soon.

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For a fleeting glimpse. 94 and 06 have been there for days. I'm confident we are in for an extended rough stretch. A fluke is never off the table but the signal for no cold air anywhere is strong. Canada is going to roast compared to their normals. Mitch won't be posting his favorite crayon temp maps anytime soon.

Frame worthy maps.. almost as bad as it can get for snow hopes.

 

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Frame worthy maps.. almost as bad as it can get for snow hopes.

The euro ens 850 anom and actual temp plots for d10-15 are crazy. Outside of the mountains of the west and maybe northern maine, I don't think there will be any snow on the ground anywhere in the conus. The NA snowcover plot around Dec 10th or so might be comical.

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The euro ens 850 anom and actual temp plots for d10-15 are crazy. Outside of the mountains of the west and maybe northern maine, I don't think there will be any snow on the ground anywhere in the conus. The NA snowcover plot around Dec 10th or so might be comical.

Playing around with EPS analog stuff.. actually matches the general progression shown on the weeklies. Perhaps a hint of something in about 3 weeks with ridge shifting north a bit as WxUSAF notes above. But that's a way off.. and there's lots of bad prior. The dates shown don't necessarily scream confidence in snow around here either lol.

 

b5fWlN9.png

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Playing around with EPS analog stuff.. actually matches the general progression shown on the weeklies. Perhaps a hint of something in about 3 weeks with ridge shifting north a bit as WxUSAF notes above. But that's a way off.. and there's lots of bad prior. The dates shown don't necessarily scream confidence in snow

Lol. Ooph in those dates.

It's easily possible to get a trough in the east at any time but until our source region primes itself with at the very least only slightly above normal I'm pretty skeptical. Central Canada looks to be basking in +10-15C anoms @ h85 down the line. A trough won't get it done in Dec with those kind of midlevels in the area that spawn our hp's.

Otoh- back the low heights in the GOA west and it can get cold in Canada without much trouble. No matter which way you shake it the advertised pattern will require time to get right. It's one thing when we say "cold air is bottled up in Canada". It another when there is no cold air in Canada. Lol.

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Wish I could be put into some kind of Sci-Fi sleep hibernation until end of January. December looks like an absolute wash right now. My god the pattern showing up for the first few weeks of December looks like an Mid-April pattern on a lot of progs. No cold air in sight and bowling balls marching across the nation. When you get closed ULLs to your east and the lowest heights aren't below freezing, in December, you know you got a major problem. 

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