poolz1 Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 GEM, GEFS and GEFS para all show a quicker progression to the retro of higher heights to the northeast, as WXUSAF noted as a hope. Still an atrocious pattern in the 11-15 but one could see if the progression continued how it could lead to a pattern that would support Canada getting cold again and the jet cutting underneath. Euro still playing the Dr no roll with the orange paint bomb remaining in SE Canada through the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Playing around with EPS analog stuff.. actually matches the general progression shown on the weeklies. Perhaps a hint of something in about 3 weeks with ridge shifting north a bit as WxUSAF notes above. But that's a way off.. and there's lots of bad prior. The dates shown don't necessarily scream confidence in snow around here either lol. Where are you getting the eps analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Where are you getting the eps analogs? On SV. There's a "features" dropdown that has a "model analogs" link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 0z ensembles (Euro/GFS/CMC) dates with and without Nino for d 16-20. Signal a bit stronger overnight for troughiness in that period, but still mainly the same years showing up. NAO still crap in general. Nino years All years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 If I am an optimist, the 12z GFS op doesn't look awful towards the end of the run...ridging over western Canada and into AK, and the core of positive height anomalies shifting more towards the NAO region? meh, its way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 There seems to be a sliver of hope on the uber LR GFS today...Just needed SOMETHING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 If I am an optimist, the 12z GFS op doesn't look awful towards the end of the run...ridging over western Canada and into AK, and the core of positive height anomalies shifting more towards the NAO region? meh, its way out there. Haha just saw this and posted it before I saw your post. People might mock us by looking at the 300+ HR GFS, but truthfully when a pattern is this bad, you look for ANYTHING. When it comes to looking at this far out you don't look at specifics obviously, just a general idea. Today is the first time in a while I saw a sliver of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 0z ensembles (Euro/GFS/CMC) dates with and without Nino for d 16-20. Signal a bit stronger overnight for troughiness in that period, but still mainly the same years showing up. NAO still crap in general. Nino years All years looks like no cold air....maybe a coastal with temps in the 40s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 12z Euro ensembles showing a torch through mid December. Bah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 12z Euro ensembles showing a torch through mid December. Bah. at least to start out the month looks pretty close to climo...not a torch...which makes sense given the pattern....there is definitely a signal there for a torch toward the 10th or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 at least to start out the month looks pretty close to climo...not a torch...which makes sense given the pattern....there is definitely a signal there for a torch toward the 10th or so.... Just gotta wait it out and hope we can get at least close to something semi-ok during the second half. Kinda doubt we get help from the ao for a while. The strat plots show quite a frigid beast spinning up high. However, even a modest retro of the GOA vortex could cut off the pac jet enough and also pop a meaningful +pna. I do know if this was mid-late Dec and guidance was showing what it is now I would be pretty bummed. Maybe we're getting the worst out of the way first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Well, The ensembles aren't indicating a -NAO just yet, but it would certainly appear we're coming out of this latest peak. Whether that means we just flat out to neutral before going back to a +NAO phase again, we'll see.. www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 A glimmer of hope at hour 360 below....way...way out there. Hr 384 has a juicy 1002 mb LP in MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Hr 384 has a juicy 1002 mb LP in MS Cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Seems like December is going to progress as normally it would. Storms seem to be progressing further and further to the east as the month rolls on. Around December 8th it appears that a storm is going to bring some sort of wintry precipitation to the mountains while we receive heavy rain. Cooler air seems to be filtering west to east as the season would dictate and I'm guessing that by the end of the month we should seriously start looking for real possibilities but not before. After all we are in the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Seems like December is going to progress as normally it would. Storms seem to be progressing further and further to the east as the month rolls on. Around December 8th it appears that a storm is going to bring some sort of wintry precipitation to the mountains while we receive heavy rain. Cooler air seems to be filtering west to east as the season would dictate and I'm guessing that by the end of the month we should seriously start looking for real possibilities but not before. After all we are in the Mid Atlantic.I doubt there is any normal progression of winter. The odds certainly stack up better for snow from mid January through mid feb but overall the avg is just a lot of years with very random outcomes averaged together. Some years we snap to cold and snow right away in early December then warm up later. Out only decent snow in 2008 was early dec. 2005 started cold then was a mild winter. Sometimes we start warm then flip cold and other times it starts warm and stays warm or cold. I don't see any normal progression in our winters. Seems more like chaos that we sometimes luck out in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Its unfortunate there won't be any cold air around for a while... 06z GFS has a nice coastal around Dec 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Last nights Euro ens mean forecast the AO and NAO to be strongly positive through 00Z Dec 15. Just as troubling is the fact that it is showing the stratospheric vortex as being colder and stronger than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 12z GFS has a coastal at the end of the run but maybe the more important feature is a lot of cooler air filtering into the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 12z GFS has a coastal at the end of the run but maybe the more important feature is a lot of cooler air filtering into the country. There have been some hints over the past few runs of a better pattern for the second half of Dec. We shall see. Would not expect any dramatic shifts given where the AO is currently, but some transient cold shots might be doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Bob, the best I can see right now is if the ridging in Canada retrogrades to the northeast and we get some sort of bootleg -nao. Then maybe something can cut underneath. But it's going to be awhile. Playing around with EPS analog stuff.. actually matches the general progression shown on the weeklies. Perhaps a hint of something in about 3 weeks with ridge shifting north a bit as WxUSAF notes above. But that's a way off.. and there's lots of bad prior. The dates shown don't necessarily scream confidence in snow around here either lol. Post 300 hrs on today's 12z GEFS shows this. It's still not a great pattern, but it's certainly more serviceable than what's coming before this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Last nights Euro ens mean forecast the AO and NAO to be strongly positive through 00Z Dec 15. Just as troubling is the fact that it is showing the stratospheric vortex as being colder and stronger than normal.The stratosphere is about as ugly as it could possibly be going into December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Post 300 hrs on today's 12z GEFS shows this. It's still not a great pattern, but it's certainly more serviceable Gefs is quicker than the EPS with a better height pattern in the npac but both are starting to show the way out of the hideous pattern coming up. Blocking will have to wait until further notice but at least the pac onslaught that scours Canada of any and all cold air will relax (hopefully) somewhere around mid month. Dec might not be a total waste with at least feeling like winter at times. Maybe we get lucky somewhere down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Let's take our pain now..make it hurt...after Dec 15th is when it really counts until 15 March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 I keep watching for signs of the super +NAO breaking down. Each GFS run for the past couple days says it will happen late in the run and could help things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2015 Author Share Posted November 30, 2015 So .................. how we lookin? or Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 So .................. how we lookin? or Not looking too bad. I would wag that neither emoticon applies by mid month. Something in between. Guidance is breaking down the unfavorable low heights and pressure patterns in the npac/ak area faster now than when the hideous pattern became obvious. Canada looks to have a better chance at building seasonable cold as we approach mid month vs exceptional warmth that is happening over the next 7-10 days. Still plenty of work to do to get to something interesting for frozen but fears of a disaster December should be waning. I would think given the changes in the npac/ak area that the weeklies are going to look better tonight for the second half of the month. Hard to say if it's a break and reload of bad or a transition to something more promising in general. Hard to say if anything is right or wrong. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Does still seem general trend is for an opening after mid mo.. or into the last 10 days as it's been. Not exactly a pretty pattern but definitely better than we've seen lately. Tho ens are still not too steady in the longer range so not sure there's much confidence. Do generally have a ridge buidling over GOA and a relax of the +NAO. Not much cold air of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Also 2009 is in the analogs on SV today. =p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Does still seem general trend is for an opening after mid mo.. or into the last 10 days as it's been. Not exactly a pretty pattern but definitely better than we've seen lately. Tho ens are still not too steady in the longer range so not sure there's much confidence. Do generally have a ridge buidling over GOA and a relax of the +NAO. Not much cold air of course... GEFS is faster than the EPS. I suppose we should go with the rule of thumb that things are probably rushed as usual with an overall lw pattern shift. d11-15 mean on the GEFS is certainly not hideous. EPS is moving in the same direction but not in the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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