WhiteoutMD Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Mowed the grass again yesterday picked up the last of the leaves. I might have to do it again if the warmth stays as advertised the next week+ . I am ready for a good freeze near the bay NOW! Xmas week looks interesting maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 For those that follow the CFS2, the weeklies off of Tropical Tidbits are fairly encouraging for the last week in December, and not that bad the week before vs. the next week or so. In fact, I'm getting the feeling that the next 10 days may be the most anomalous for some time to come....pending the new Euro monthlies that come out on Wednesday. Lol The euro monthlies and especially weeklies stunk last winter anyway. Remember they didn't catch on to the pattern flip til after it basically already started. They did at times show it on one run of the weeklies then the next week they'd come out and it was a torch again. I've noticed that with the euro weeklies that they have a bit of that GFS type mid range hiccup issues. Where GFS loses a storm mid range the euro weeklies sometimes lose a pattern change they saw 8 weeks out at 4 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 The euro monthlies and especially weeklies stunk last winter anyway. Remember they didn't catch on to the pattern flip til after it basically already started. They did at times show it on one run of the weeklies then the next week they'd come out and it was a torch again. I've noticed that with the euro weeklies that they have a bit of that GFS type mid range hiccup issues. Where GFS loses a storm mid range the euro weeklies sometimes lose a pattern change they saw 8 weeks out at 4 weeks Since the weeklies just extend the previous 0z regular ensembles out 2 more weeks, d10-15 needs to be accurate for the weeklies to be accurate. IMO- weeklies do well with typical and stable patterns. They do a nice job showing the progression. But anytime there is volatility or a substantial pattern flip that isn't picked up in d10-15 they're usefulness diminishes quickly. Right now the weeklies have been doing really well in general. Which is unfortunate...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Heh, just noticed the euro ens last night have a muddy coastal signal centered around the 19th-20th. MSLP + low locations are mildly interesting and more members showing snow in our area than I've seen in a while. Climo and no strong cold signal would greatly favor elevation to our west in anything were to happen of course but since it's the only thing showing up anywhere we may as well keep an eyeball on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 12zGFS: Day before Christmas eve: Rain, high in the mid to upper sixties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 12zGFS: Day before Christmas eve: Rain, high in the mid to upper sixties. Long range goofus so reliable..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 12zGFS: Day before Christmas eve: Rain, high in the mid to upper sixties. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2015 Author Share Posted December 7, 2015 Long range goofus so reliable..lol Right now the GFS beyond about day 4 is "the end of its (useful) run". I normally defend it, but lately its been pretty bad IMO at any range at all. Just last week about this time we were looking at a big bomb of a coastal low for this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 didn't the Euro have coastal low too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Cohen said this is a classic Nina pattern. Say what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 12zGFS: Day before Christmas eve: Rain, high in the mid to upper sixties. Yeah, 12z GFS valid 7:00am December 23rd (hr 384) is 65-67 degrees most of DC metro, Dew Point of around 64 with Dew Points of 60 even in Boston is loltastic. PWAT vertabim around 1.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Cohen said this is a classic Nina pattern. Say what. Gotta' give it to him. He's gunna' be right, somehow, someway at some point this winter. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Gotta' give it to him. He's gunna' be right, somehow, someway at some point this winter. lol Is he not allowed to make comment on anything without being picked apart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Is he not allowed to make comment on anything without being picked apart? Nope. He isn't. He's an attention magnet. With the good comes the bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Is he not allowed to make comment on anything without being picked apart? When you're touted as a top innovative long range forecaster you're going to be scrutinized. Getting the basics wrong is never a good thing. This is not a Nina pattern. If anything it's more amplified than typical in El Nino but the background state screams strong Nino. Sample size is so small not sure why people hug analogs anyway. Not to mention we haven't seen a super nino in 20 years amidst a strongly warming climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2015 Author Share Posted December 7, 2015 Cohen said this is a classic Nina pattern. Say what. I was looking at the long range gfs and thought the same thing. Of course, it probably will be off in some ways, but from day 10 on it sure looked like a NS dominated pattern, at least with the low pressures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2015 Author Share Posted December 7, 2015 When you're touted as a top innovative long range forecaster you're going to be scrutinized. Getting the basics wrong is never a good thing. This is not a Nina pattern. If anything it's more amplified than typical in El Nino but the background state screams strong Nino. Sample size is so small not sure why people hug analogs anyway. Not to mention we haven't seen a super nino in 20 years amidst a strongly warming climate. What do you mean by that? Larger pattern? Continental, hemispheric? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2015 Author Share Posted December 7, 2015 didn't the Euro have coastal low too? I don't remember..........want to say it had it but not as extreme??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 I was looking at the long range gfs and thought the same thing. Of course, it probably will be off in some ways, but from day 10 on it sure looked like a NS dominated pattern, at least with the low pressures. Well I wouldn't argue it looks classic Nino at the moment. Though the ideas of Nino and Nina are winter long more than a snapshot. I tend to think we're seeing some of the 'resilient' patterning of last several years mixed in. Plenty of people have uttered it looks Nina like he's not the first. Ninas don't usually have a wet southern tier of the US and there's no big GOA high. Plus globally there are Nino impacts all over the place. WC south of PacNW down into CA has been dry lately which is a bit weird but it's early still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Cohen said this is a classic Nina pattern. Say what. It might have some Nina attributes, but overall, no...It's been quite Nino-like so far at least at the upper levels..Big NPAC low anomaly...Pos Height anomaly near Hudson bay.. 12/1/2015 - 12/5/2015 Nina Dec Composite: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Ji approves of C triple zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 There will be hybrid patterns, but at the end of the day this winter is going to look much more similar to a classic strong Nino composite DJF Strong Nina Composite DJF Strong Nino Composite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 I think partly impacts are lagging a bit more than usual.. this thing was still going gung on big 3.4 anomaly gains into early/mid Nov. 1997 slowed its big rises about a month earlier. Any sort of snapshot leaves a lot out of the discussion. Nino been ninoing all over the place for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 When you're touted as a top innovative long range forecaster you're going to be scrutinized. Getting the basics wrong is never a good thing. This is not a Nina pattern. If anything it's more amplified than typical in El Nino but the background state screams strong Nino. Sample size is so small not sure why people hug analogs anyway. Not to mention we haven't seen a super nino in 20 years amidst a strongly warming climate. I don't have an issue with folks leveling educated criticism at him, but drive-by comments about his being an attention whore and the like really get under my skin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 It might have some Nina attributes, but overall, no...It's been quite Nino-like so far at least at the upper levels..Big NPAC low anomaly...Pos Height anomaly near Hudson bay.. 12/1/2015 - 12/5/2015 ninodec.PNG Nina Dec Composite: ninadec.PNG Last week looks pretty similar to stronger nino Decembers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2015 Author Share Posted December 7, 2015 Last week looks pretty similar to stronger nino Decembers Pretty glaring differences over Asia and parts of the Pacific. Since a couple of the years you included aren't very good years, maybe that's a good thing down the road? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Def some differences and pattern advertised ahead will change the look to some degree. Plus it's 7 days vs 4 weeks plus. Some of those stronger Ninos could probably be tossed but not my cup of tea. The dipole from Pac to CONUS seems pretty standard tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 every color is in the wrong place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Weeklies (week 4 in particular) are acceptable. Aleutian low retros west far enough to kink heights up in eastern AK/nw Canada during week 4. No blocking on the means but at least the npac cooperates a little better. The short story is the pattern isn't great but not awful either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Weeklies (week 4 in particular) are acceptable. Aleutian low retros west far enough to kink heights up in eastern AK/nw Canada during week 4. No blocking on the means but at least the npac cooperates a little better. The short story is the pattern isn't great but not awful either. Some agreement with the CFS2 it seems.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg®ion=eus&pkg=T2ma5d&runtime=2015120712&fh=600&xpos=0&ypos=172 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg®ion=eus&pkg=apcpna7d&runtime=2015120712&fh=600&xpos=0&ypos=172 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.