snowman19 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The disturbing thing that really has stood out to me is the fact that all the seasonal models showing a cold Jan, Feb, Mar, are all too far west with the GOA/Aleutian vortex right off the bat for December. None of them have had the vortex as far east as it is right now and expected to continue to be. If we do not see very significant changes in the long wave synoptic pattern in January, I don't see Feb and Mar suddenly having a huge turnaround to cold and snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Euro ENS continues to suggest repeating patterns for the most part but I think by the end (we've said that before) it seems it's all shifting east a bit. That could put us in better play by final part of month or into Jan unless it keeps getting pushed back. Still not a whole lot to be excited about at 360 for 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Looks like +5.9 is the target for warmest Dec ever at DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Looks like +5.9 is the target for warmest Dec ever at DC. piece of cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The disturbing thing that really has stood out to me is the fact that all the seasonal models showing a cold Jan, Feb, Mar, are all too far west with the GOA/Aleutian vortex right off the bat for December. None of them have had the vortex as far east as it is right now and expected to continue to be. If we do not see very significant changes in the long wave synoptic pattern in January, I don't see Feb and Mar suddenly having a huge turnaround to cold and snowy But you do think we will see a change for the better in January?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 12z Euro control has a snow to wintry mix back to snow storm for DC western burbs day 10-11 (240-246 hour) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 00z GFS at Day 9... primary just takes a tad too long to transfer to the coastal, even though cold air is marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 GFS picks up on that threat Day 8-10. I'll call it a thread the needle pattern event. Meaning, out of nowhere we get a transient 50/50 low, some minor Greenland ridhing, and boom a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 What is really important for this potential "event" is the first ULL that runs through the Lakes Day 6, it eventually forms the transient 50/50 that helps stop the trailing low from being a cutter. Also, the timing of the trailing wave will determine a lot. Slow, and it heads inland, quick, it'll be more SE since the 50/50 isn't locked in anywhere. The 12z EURO had this event too, but the wave sputtered out so we'll see. This could be the first legit fantasy storm to track, I'd take it at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I'll give the d10 threat some credence until we're past that range. 82-83 comes up a lot in my various comparisons lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I'll use the old Ji phase, the wave that forms the storm is actually onyl 5-6 days away from being on the CONUS...People won't be excited because verbatim it is a rainstorm for us, but the pattern is actually a decent one. It is only 1 run, but it has some support across the board, let's see what the EURO does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 00z EURO is semi close to something in the same period...think we got our first legit fantasy event to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 00z EURO is semi close to something in the same period...think we got our first legit fantasy event to look at. I see a potential pattern reload at 240hr, probably should enjoy this event while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 6z gfs wow...full blown pattern change and a christmas bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 6z gfs wow...full blown pattern change and a christmas bomb wow. realizing its fantasy land it still looks better than it has been especially that storm which would be a combined Festivus/X-mas miracle. Been down this road before so I won't get too merry just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 6z gfs wow...full blown pattern change and a christmas bomb now its right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 definitely a more active period on the LR models from the 18th-25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 6z gfs wow...full blown pattern change and a christmas bomb wow. realizing its fantasy land it still looks better than it has been especially that storm which would be a combined Festivus/X-mas miracle. Been down this road before so I won't get too merry just yet. Well it is a "bomb" of sorts, but you did notice it goes right over us and that it's rain as depicted. Not far, perhaps, from things being different, but we're talking la-la land so no real point in picking apart details. At any rate, that period has been showing up as more active lately and the pattern trying to look less putrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Well it is a "bomb" of sorts, but you did notice it goes right over us and that it's rain as depicted. Not far, perhaps, from things being different, but we're talking la-la land so no real point in picking apart details. At any rate, that period has been showing up as more active lately and the pattern trying to look less putrid. yes I noticed. Like you mentioned just happy to see something on the menu other than a warm pile of fecal matter but that may still be the main course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 now its right? Is it within 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Two runs in a row the 18-19th storm is a SNE hit. We gotta bring this baby south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Two runs in a row the 18-19th storm is a SNE hit. We gotta bring this baby south. Euro ens have some interesting tidbits. Nice (but small) cluster of lows moving from eastern NC and off the delmarva d9-10. Looking at the members there are some pretty nice tracks and some pretty big storms. However, the ones that do give snow look really dicey with temps (to be expected of course). I can probably speak for the whole forum that even a sloppy messy storm with marginal temps that produces even some non accum snow would be a big win at this point. Hopefully the 12z ens run ups the ante. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I haven't had time to take a look at the individual members Let's just hug #31 for now. There's a lot of good ones in there but 31 has the best temps...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I'm kinda rooting for 2 things now. Record warm December + 7" of snow @ DCA. An extreme version of Dec 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I'm kinda rooting for 2 things now. Record warm December + 7" of snow @ DCA. An extreme version of Dec 82. would be funny if we had a top 10 December snow month from 3 storms that occur form Dec 18-Dec 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 would be funny if we had a top 10 December snow month from 3 storms that occur form Dec 18-Dec 26 Maybe they will be wrong but the ensembles in no way support the operation idea past day 10. They revert to this crap torch pattern for the end of December. Until I see some consensus and the "pattern change" actually moving closer in time on the guidance I remain skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Maybe they will be wrong but the ensembles in no way support the operation idea past day 10. They revert to this crap torch pattern for the end of December. Until I see some consensus and the "pattern change" actually moving closer in time on the guidance I remain skeptical. JB says the models are always too slow to react with the big SOI drop. Maybe the ensembles start changing their tune soon..or maybe JB is wrong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I'm kinda rooting for 2 things now. Record warm December + 7" of snow @ DCA. An extreme version of Dec 82. Of the modern stronger Ninos 1982 was the closest for Nov. #itshappening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 JB says the models are always too slow to react with the big SOI drop. Maybe the ensembles start changing their tune soon..or maybe JB is wrong lol JB can be wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Maybe they will be wrong but the ensembles in no way support the operation idea past day 10. They revert to this crap torch pattern for the end of December. Until I see some consensus and the "pattern change" actually moving closer in time on the guidance I remain skeptical. Pattern is definitely changing for NA. Right now the entire continent is a flood of above normal mid-level air. The trough axis out west migrates east over time on the ensembles and the height pattern over AK/nw canada goes from atrocious to pretty gross to notsoawful. Looking at our area and the NE specifically it does look bad d10-15. But things are definitely changing for the western 2/3rds of NA. IMO- a hard to budge ridge isn't the most likely sensible wx d10-15 and even through the end of the month. We're going to have progressive flow and more amplified troughs moving in and out. So stagnant warmth (imo) isn't what the pattern looks like. Now if we're talking specifically about snow chances in the pattern...that looks like a steaming pile of dung but not impossible for flukes. We've been getting snow in patterns that generally shouldn't snow for 2 years straight. We'll need a lot of luck this month but hopefully the hostility keeps stepping down through the next 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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