WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 12z EURO at 144 looks like a pounding again for next Mon night into Tuesday morning... 999 SLP right near or over ORF with the h5 energy being captured its seems... 168 has it moving east away from the East Coast Who here would have said no to that map if you had posted it in August and said hey, this is for the second week of December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Not making any claims about the validity of this info, but this is something to think about for those concerned about the strength of the PV right now. The following is a graph courtesy of meteorologist Ryan J. Ashoka. I have not personally verified the accuracy of the plot; however, it is consistent w/ stratospheric behavior/cycling. Specifically, if you have a weakened/highly weakened vortex in autumn/early winter, the probability is actually higher for a strengthening of the vortex for mid and late winter. Point being, the strong early vortex produces a statistical argument for the increased likelihood of a weakened winter vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Euro solution interesting in that it has subzero 850s at the base of the backside in NC. Not sure that's snow but it's creating its own cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Who here would have said no to that map if you had posted it in August and said hey, this is for the second week of December? There isn't even a GL low and it's still rain with an almost 1030 HP. have to just smile at that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 Euro solution interesting in that it has subzero 850s at the base of the backside in NC. Not sure that's snow but it's creating its own cold air! When I saw this storm popping up yesterday, I thought it might end up a high elevation snow. I know right now the 850's are about 2-4 degrees from what I can see on the GFS, but that doesn't mean it will end up like that. There might be some snow with this on the highest peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Will (ORH) just mentioned the EURO ensembles in the SNE forum... we torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Will (ORH) just mentioned the EURO ensembles in the SNE forum... we torch You're bringing their colloquialisms in here, too?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 You're bringing their colloquialisms in here, too?! AWT But yes, because it fits for our region... this is what ORH/Coastal said about the ensembles at Day 10 for up there, which leads me to believe we enjoy 60s late next week? At day 10, 576DM h5 heights are knocking on DC's door with +10 to +12 850s Euro ensembles are a furnace for D10...that's a really impressive warm signal for this far out. Wow that is a torch..holy cow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 AWT But yes, because it fits for our region... this is what ORH/Coastal said about the ensembles at Day 10 for up there, which leads me to believe we enjoy 60s late next week? At day 10, 576DM h5 heights are knocking on DC's door with +10 to +12 850s Did you see the Euro ensemble mean for day 10? Holy smokes that is just unthinkable warmth, if you thought the operational was bad, the ensemble mean blew it away. Even the GFS, which also dumps a full latitude trough down to Mexico in the west isn't as warm as the Euro, it's just crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 I can't take it anymore. Was waiting to chime in for the first real threat, but it sounds like I could be waiting for hell to freeze over at this point--which could be fun just as well. Anyway, hope everyone had a great spring, summer, and fall. First time posting since last winter, but been lurking for a while. So not in panic mode by any means as I knew Dec would be a pure S show, but i keep hearing mid to late month for a possible flip to winter and better snow odds? Still feeling alright with this or should I book a trip to the Alps to see it snow? I like snow in the DMV more than the Alps, but have snow will travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Did you see the Euro ensemble mean for day 10? Holy smokes that is just unthinkable warmth, if you thought the operational was bad, the ensemble mean blew it away. Even the GFS, which also dumps a full latitude trough down to Mexico in the west isn't as warm as the Euro, it's just crazy It's an absurd anomaly (particularly for Quebec), but not necessarily "baking" at ground level as far as I can read... Def very warm for mid December though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 AWT But yes, because it fits for our region... this is what ORH/Coastal said about the ensembles at Day 10 for up there, which leads me to believe we enjoy 60s late next week? At day 10, 576DM h5 heights are knocking on DC's door with +10 to +12 850s To be honest, while a chance to track a snow threat would be nice, my expectations were low enough coming into December that torching now doesn't really faze me. If we see that extended look in another five weeks or so, then I might get antsy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 To be honest, while a chance to track a snow threat would be nice, my expectations were low enough coming into December that torching now doesn't really faze me. If we see that extended look in another five weeks or so, then I might get antsy! This month is going to try some folks for sure. Euro ens pretty much stink d11-15 with a lot of work to do before we see any meaningful cold and/or chances for snow. Hopefully over the next week or so things start to look better down the line. Unfortunately the general LW pattern we appear to be entering is one that has proven quite stubborn in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Lol, there is 1 euro ens member out of 51 that has measurable snow for DC over the next 15 days. THAT is pretty damn sad for Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 There does seem to be a very active storm pattern in the next couple of weeks, especially along the coast. I like the fact that the storm on the 10th is a slow mover. Almost like it was being affected by some sort of block like the NAO is approaching going negative even though that may not happen for about three weeks, if then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 This month is going to try some folks for sure. Euro ens pretty much stink d11-15 with a lot of work to do before we see any meaningful cold and/or chances for snow. Hopefully over the next week or so things start to look better down the line. Unfortunately the general LW pattern we appear to be entering is one that has proven quite stubborn in the past. I agree that plenty of folks may well start losing it soon. It's not so much the warmth, but I agree that it's a lot to do with the general pattern that really seems stubborn. My bum is getting a little squeaky, but I'm OK for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2015 Author Share Posted December 3, 2015 I'll bet winter starts here about Dec 20. And no, it has nothing to do with the solstice on the 21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 I'll bet winter starts here about Dec 20. And no, it has nothing to do with the solstice on the 21st 09/10 Part Deux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2015 Author Share Posted December 3, 2015 09/10 Part Deux LOL...no coincidence with that date either...not to that extreme. I think we will cool down by then, maybe see a less hostile pattern, and see snow at least become remotely possible. That would be "winter" for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Should make for a nice episode of Deadliest Catch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Damn She's a beaut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Way out in la la land on the 00z GFS, you can start to see the changes that will bring us some "colder" air... but as many have said in here... going to be a long next two weeks before we even get a sniff of a potential pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Euro ens mean for next week's rainer is around .5 but it looks like the ens favor a more eastern track overall. LR guidance across the board remains hideous. There isn't a glimmer of meaningful change through the next 15+ days. I personally doubt Dec (or this pattern in general) turns around quickly. It's going to be a process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Euro ens mean for next week's rainer is around .5 but it looks like the ens favor a more eastern track overall. LR guidance across the board remains hideous. There isn't a glimmer of meaningful change through the next 15+ days. I personally doubt Dec (or this pattern in general) turns around quickly. It's going to be a process. things are def locked in for a while. The MJO must have broke too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Dry air killing the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Euro ens mean for next week's rainer is around .5 but it looks like the ens favor a more eastern track overall. LR guidance across the board remains hideous. There isn't a glimmer of meaningful change through the next 15+ days. I personally doubt Dec (or this pattern in general) turns around quickly. It's going to be a process. Agree. I don't thing we're going to see some "magical" big pattern change that snaps us out of this currently hostile one. In fact if you look at the longer range GFS (yeah, I know!!), that's kind of what it implies: it gets somewhat "less hostile" later on, whatever that is worth. But it's not exactly wintry-looking. I guess all we can hope for is to see it "step down" by the time we get into the early part of the New Year, and go from there. And hope it doesn't go right back to where we are now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Lol, there is 1 euro ens member out of 51 that has measurable snow for DC over the next 15 days. THAT is pretty damn sad for Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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