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Ginx snewx

No Joaquin the park forecast for Mets

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00z GFS looks like a capture and northwestward turn as it reaches the latitude of the Outer Banks of NC.  Plus, I don't think its an EWRC but there is some fluctuations going on in the inner core right now which is why there is no discernible eye on IR.

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00z GFS looks like a capture and northwestward turn as it reaches the latitude of the Outer Banks of NC.  Plus, I don't think its an EWRC but there is some fluctuations going on in the inner core right now which is why there is no discernible eye on IR.

 

More of a Northward turn rather than NW to my eyes, a scraping of extreme southeastern New England (Cape Cod)

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Should have know this was going to happen after I posted the spaghetti with every single model going OTS and said as of now this does not appear to be a threat to our region. If you ever want to revive a storm, have me cancel it on SCW and it'll be back the next cycle.

 

Still dry for the region verbatim except the cape, but that's a substantial shift.

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it looks almost like edouard

 

Painful bust that storm was...I remember it was supposed to hug 70W and then almost go NNW into E LI and CT/RI.

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Real useful model, jumping from NC to fish to scraper.

I like the Edouard flashback to 1996. As a 12 year old on Labor Day I cried when I finally realized it was going OTS. The scars are still there.

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00z vs. 18z GFS

This is image is very instructive. I mentioned the drop in the NAO, flipping negative over next few days. Check out how much stronger the N Atlantic high is in just one run....

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I honestly doubt even a gfs like track is a major threat outside of an ACK brush. Really hard to get that thing west enough up this way. Seems like it's almost turning NW off HSE from fujiwhara interaction with the big cut off.

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I don't see the NAO connection. The trough pushing through the area near Maine helps shove that ridge south. Quebec ridge is also a big stronger too, but that is not the NAO domain.

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I honestly doubt even a gfs like track is a major threat outside of an ACK brush. Really hard to get that thing west enough up this way. Seems like it's almost turning NW off HSE from fujiwhara interaction with the big cut off.

could have pretty impressive impacts for some in sne with this scenario. Obviously the south and east.

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I honestly doubt even a gfs like track is a major threat outside of an ACK brush. Really hard to get that thing west enough up this way. Seems like it's almost turning NW off HSE from fujiwhara interaction with the big cut off.

 

Yeah a rule I've always used over the years up in our neck is always hedge right of any modeled track as it gains latitude unless there is an overwhelming reason not to. (like a bizarre Sandy type setup or some other obvious leftward steering mechanism)

 

Given the inconsistency of the GFS anyway, this is probably just another crap solution and I'd be surprised if the Euro and company came west outside of trivial movements.

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Yeah a rule I've always used over the years up in our neck is always hedge right of any modeled track as it gains latitude unless there is an overwhelming reason not to. (like a bizarre Sandy type setup or some other obvious leftward steering mechanism)

Given the inconsistency of the GFS anyway, this is probably just another crap solution and I'd be surprised if the Euro and company came west outside of trivial movements.

Agreed on both counts. I do the same with storms up this way. I need a compelling reason why it's coming west.

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I like the Edouard flashback to 1996. As a 12 year old on Labor Day I cried when I finally realized it was going OTS. The scars are still there.

Lol! I had the exact same reaction living in Hamden. Total bewilderment.

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I can see why it's doing what it is doing regarding the changes NE of Maine and they may be real based on the last few runs, but it also may be moving Joaquin NW than N too quick which allows those changes to mean something. And yeah...we all should be aware of how these things love to turn right anytime they sniff stronger westerlies. I wouldn't really change my thinking with one run of an inconsistent model.

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I don't see the NAO connection. The trough pushing through the area near Maine helps shove that ridge south. Quebec ridge is also a big stronger too, but that is not the NAO domain.

I'm not sure how you don't see an "NAO connection" given its inverse influence on the westerlies.

That image is not the "entire domain" but a sizable chunk of it. You can deduce the areas further north towards Greenland, based on the geopotential heights in that graphic.

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Some interesting checks on the OTS train

While the 0z GFS shifted west late into a Cape scraper and the 0z NAM makes landfall in SC (where prior runs today were OTS), these 2 solutions had very little in common.

What had my attention more was the 18z GEFS bringing several members (8 of 20) making landfall similar to the 0z NAM track whereas the 12z suite had only 1 of 20.

Amazing how sensitive these solutions are to slight perturbations.

Not near a computer but very curious to see what 0z GEFS do....

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