wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Its anecdotal, but I used to think the old ETA was more workable in the winter than the current NAM. I have absolutely no data to back that up though. But the old ETA would find the cheese once in a while and steal the show, even in winter synoptic events. But maybe that's because the GFS/ECM/GGEM were obviously less accurate ten years ago than they are now. Remember the days of "EE rule" for winter storms. I think lots have echoed that in the past few years. ETA used to be reasonably worthwhile and given lots of weight within 48 hours. The most recent NAM versions have had horrendous fails even within 24 hours. We should see J move away from 75W in the next few hours per just about every model except the NAM. If we reach 75W/25N, something's off. I relish more poetic what-if posts from Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Its anecdotal, but I used to think the old ETA was more workable in the winter than the current NAM. I have absolutely no data to back that up though. But the old ETA would find the cheese once in a while and steal the show, even in winter synoptic events. But maybe that's because the GFS/ECM/GGEM were obviously less accurate ten years ago than they are now. It's that, and also that when the NAM/ETA went over to the NAM/WRF model after 2006, the focus for improvement was convection and not synoptics. So it kind of got left behind in that regard. That ETA had its monster busts every winter, but as you said, it did score the coup on at least 1 or 2 events every year. The last event I really remember the old ETA nailing was the 12/9/05 storm....they switched it after that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The NAM is what it is and it shouldn't be used like a global model. The GGEM on the other hand, what a showing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 The NAM is what it is and it shouldn't be used like a global model. The GGEM on the other hand, what a showing there. IF we had every TS the GGEM produced in a year there would be death tolls in the thousands and whole coastlines would cease to exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 IF we had every TS the GGEM produced in a year there would be death tolls in the thousands and whole coastlines would cease to exist. This isn't a case of it spinning up a phantom cyclone though. It just can't figure out what the heck to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I have to admit, it's not every day you see a TC on satellite, "stretched" in nearly the opposite direction it is forecast to be headed... I'm thinking many will be surprised on how quickly Joaquin begins to lose his tropical characteristics... I'm not going to elaborate much on that, other than, I think there will be more big "surprises" with Joaquin, before he's in the history books... This has already been one of the most interesting "fish storms" I've tracked. Might as well go with a persistence forecast, until this roller coaster ride, ultimately comes to an end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 I have to admit, it's not every day you see a TC on satellite, "stretched" in nearly the opposite direction it is forecast to be headed... I'm thinking many will be surprised on how quickly Joaquin begins to lose his tropical characteristics... I'm not going to elaborate much on that, other than, I think there will be more big "surprises" with Joaquin, before he's in the history books... This has already been one of the most interesting "fish storms" I've tracked. Might as well go with a persistence forecast, until this roller coaster ride, ultimately comes to an end... I remember well the John Hope lessons about the outflow tail giving hints about future direction. Total opposite case if modeling is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I have to admit, it's not every day you see a TC on satellite, "stretched" in nearly the opposite direction it is forecast to be headed... I'm thinking many will be surprised on how quickly Joaquin begins to lose his tropical characteristics... I'm not going to elaborate much on that, other than, I think there will be more big "surprises" with Joaquin, before he's in the history books... This has already been one of the most interesting "fish storms" I've tracked. Might as well go with a persistence forecast, until this roller coaster ride, ultimately comes to an end... What are we saying here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 What are we saying here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Its anecdotal, but I used to think the old ETA was more workable in the winter than the current NAM. I have absolutely no data to back that up though. But the old ETA would find the cheese once in a while and steal the show, even in winter synoptic events. But maybe that's because the GFS/ECM/GGEM were obviously less accurate ten years ago than they are now.The NAM is non-hydrostatic...i.e. It directly calculates vertical motion equations. This is good for convection, but sometimes it goes a little bonkers and begins to have a negative effect on synoptic scale processes the further you go outin the model run. Sometimes it finds a nut even in winter...like with those SWFEs where there's a ton of convection in the SE and we see seemingly every run start trending north inside of 72hrs...sometimes even right up through "go" time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Indeed. Either that man is drunk, or I ought to be. Let us away to some sort of beer-vending establishment, where there is little of this "a thing could happen and I won't say what but let the official record reflect that I am calling it here and now" codswallop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I have to admit, it's not every day you see a TC on satellite, "stretched" in nearly the opposite direction it is forecast to be headed... I'm thinking many will be surprised on how quickly Joaquin begins to lose his tropical characteristics... I'm not going to elaborate much on that, other than, I think there will be more big "surprises" with Joaquin, before he's in the history books... This has already been one of the most interesting "fish storms" I've tracked. Might as well go with a persistence forecast, until this roller coaster ride, ultimately comes to an end... FWIW the 12z EPS mean is about 150 miles NW of the OP on Monday morning. Probably meaningless for most people, but it might end up being a close call for Nantucket island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Indeed. Either that man is drunk, or I ought to be. Let us away to some sort of beer-vending establishment, where there is little of this "a thing could happen and I won't say what but let the official record reflect that I am calling it here and now" codswallop. Codswallop? Where do you find this stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Indeed. Either that man is drunk, or I ought to be. Let us away to some sort of beer-vending establishment, where there is little of this "a thing could happen and I won't say what but let the official record reflect that I am calling it here and now" codswallop. i think he means its going to go bye bye very quickly and unravel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 i think he means its going to go bye bye very quickly and unravel Beyond that, "I think there will be more big "surprises" with Joaquin" is, simply put, useless to say without detail, having already stated the expectation of extratropical transition in shorter order than is typical. That part was clear from the position that it would quickly lose tropical characteristics. I mean, the thing has never gotten its act together from a visual standpoint the way one would expect from a cat 4. Again, water vapor loop. b**ch is a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Indeed. Either that man is drunk, or I ought to be. Let us away to some sort of beer-vending establishment, where there is little of this "a thing could happen and I won't say what but let the official record reflect that I am calling it here and now" codswallop. Yes, I really didn't say much at all. But even you sir, have managed to outdo me in this regard, with this drivel. There IS a banter thread. Want me to spell it out for you? This has been a rather interesting "fish storm", up to this point, considering the setup, and model divergences along the way. Given the complexity of this setup, and all the different players on the field, it's still entertaining and fascinating to watch, from a scientific standpoint. And while one may now feel completely confident on how this story will end, there's been so many twist and turns up to this point, that you still want to read up until the very last page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I remember well the John Hope lessons about the outflow tail giving hints about future direction. Total opposite case if modeling is correct. And this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 You can definitely see on the water vapor loop how he is about to make his stage exit right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yes, I really didn't say much at all. But even you sir, have managed to outdo me in this regard, with this drivel. There IS a banter thread. Want me to spell it out for you? This has been a rather interesting "fish storm", up to this point, considering the setup, and model divergences along the way. Given the complexity of this setup, and all the different players on the field, it's still entertaining and fascinating to watch, from a scientific standpoint. And while one may now feel completely confident on how this story will end, there's been so many twist and turns up to this point, that you still want to read up until the very last page. I, sir, was not attempting to allude to any "big surprises." You said "I think there will be more big "surprises" with Joaquin" and then didn't specify, and, actually, still haven't. You will have to forgive my curiosity on what your thoughts actually are, or, alternatively, my predilection for those who either say what they mean or nothing at all. What "big surprises" do you think there will be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Man, if I had just happened to glance at WV, then i would assume it would move NW. But it is already assuming an easterly component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM finally getting a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 A coast tickler. A teaser. Joaquin doesn't offer you to come in for a drink after a night out. Joaquin will likely play with our weenies right until the storms death. It'll take an easterly component then wobble north or nnw for a little while just to perk our interests before he rockets out of town and out of sight to the NE. Consistent rain this whole bus ride to New Haven. Game tomorrow at New Haven. Staying in Milford CT tonight. About to hit the Hartford traffic. Bus barely made it up mt tolland on i-84 a few miles back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM finally getting a clue. Yep, 45 page waste of time. hahahaha. deliciously exposing of a pointless obsession - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 San Salvador Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 And this. Not so fast.. it actually worked in this case. For the 2 to 3 days it took to spin this up to TS force (recall, it battled shear early on), the "tail" most certainly blew off toward the SW. In fact, I distinctly recall seeing cirrus debris making the S/A Coast! And J. did present an ensuing SW motion over the last 2 days. Not fast and/or hugely discerned, but did so nonetheless. Perhaps the observation would be better tested going forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Hours and hours of that. San Salvador Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Man, if I had just happened to glance at WV, then i would assume it would move NW. But it is already assuming an easterly component. Yeah, now this I agree with -- multiple channels of satellite don't currently present an environment that promotes much E component ... yet the Euro's previous runs, if correct, would have a smart NE movement by 00z tonight. It'll be interesting to see this for tedium alone - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Joaquin trying to reform eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 J. could end up being a bigger issue for England... really. Lot of models with a very deep transitioned/transitioning system up their way as J. races across the N Atlantic with a purpose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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