wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The current situation Good stuff Key is also how these 3 steering currents move over time. I've read that for moderate-intense TC's, the most important steering currents are at 500-200 mb (, and this lowers as the TC weakens. Mets please add to this. Here are several CIMSS maps: 700-850: 200-700: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Models have this taking off right away soon to the NE. Looking at wv loop.. HP and ridge is pushing from the NE.. Not sure how it' going to plow through that. I assume more of a northerly trek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 To summarize some of the overnight guidance: 18z / 0z GEFS with ~50% SC-VA landfalls 0z CMC landfall in NC/VA 18z Sun 0z NAM landfall in SC 9z Sun 6z NAM landfall in NC 15z Sun 0z NAVGEM landfall in NC 18z Mon (only reason I add this is 18z was OTS) 0z HWRF, GFDL OTS 0z Euro shifted ~ 200 miles northwest similar to 0z GFS and into NHC cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 6z GFS is even further OTS than 0z GFS fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 GFS is way OTS through 90hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 To summarize some of the overnight guidance: 18z / 0z GEFS with ~50% SC-VA landfalls 0z CMC landfall in NC/VA 18z Sun 0z NAM landfall in SC 9z Sun 6z NAM landfall in NC 15z Sun 0z NAVGEM landfall in NC 18z Mon (only reason I add this is 18z was OTS) 0z HWRF, GFDL OTS 0z Euro shifted ~ 200 miles northwest similar to 0z GFS and into NHC cone To be honest, reading this seems to give the impression that a landfall is more likely than it actually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 6z GFS out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 To be honest, reading this seems to give the impression that a landfall is more likely than it actually is. Euro 0z, GFS 0z/6z, and hurricane models 0z seem to be converging on an OTS-yet-closer-than-prior-Euro-runs track similar to NHC cone, with Euro making a northwest shift towards that. What is a little unnerving is the GEFS 0z/6z, CMC 0z, and NAM 0z/6z, and that those models reverted back to a landfall track overnight after showing more OTS solutions earlier yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I can't even find one of the 51 ECM ensemble members that shows a landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Euro 0z, GFS 0z/6z, and hurricane models 0z seem to be converging on an OTS-yet-closer-than-prior-Euro-runs track similar to NHC cone, with Euro making a northwest shift towards that. What is a little unnerving is the GEFS 0z/6z, CMC 0z, and NAM 0z/6z, and that those models reverted back to a landfall track overnight after showing more OTS solutions earlier yesterday. Yeah that's fair... it just to me the main guidance is still OTS and not really close enough to have a huge effect except for swell and coast-line surf. I just can't even consider the GGEM and NAM, when the EURO and GFS are OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Euro 0z, GFS 0z/6z, and hurricane models 0z seem to be converging on an OTS-yet-closer-than-prior-Euro-runs track similar to NHC cone, with Euro making a northwest shift towards that. What is a little unnerving is the GEFS 0z/6z, CMC 0z, and NAM 0z/6z, and that those models reverted back to a landfall track overnight after showing more OTS solutions earlier yesterday. No it just shows that they are still making wild model swings and can't be really relied upon. Yes the euro shifted, but it has not been as nearly erratic as the rest of the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Some of you pulled an all nighter for this...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 No it just shows that they are still making wild model swings and can't be really relied upon. Yes the euro shifted, but it has not been as nearly erratic as the rest of the globals. Yeah, and the ECM ensembles have been fairly rock steady. If anything with each passing run the EPS has been losing ensemble members showing a land-fall. Yesterday morning it was still around 10 out of 51, this morning its down to 0 out of 51 (though some come pretty close to Cape Cod). But the whole left turn into NC/VA is completely gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 As far as I can tell, the 06z models initialized it too far southeast and it's already west of the GFDL from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yeah that's fair... it just to me the main guidance is still OTS and not really close enough to have a huge effect except for swell and coast-line surf. I just can't even consider the GGEM and NAM, when the EURO and GFS are OTS. Agree EURO + GFS converging make NHC cone look very good right now. I'd say the most unnerving counter guidance was the GEFS with about 50% of members reverting to a landfall after it took that option away entirely earlier yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Since we knew 2 days ago this was OTS..let's focus now on some towns staying in the 40's for highs the next 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Agree EURO + GFS converging make NHC cone look very good right now. I'd say the most unnerving counter guidance was the GEFS with about 50% of members reverting to a landfall after it took that option away entirely earlier yesterday. All that tells me is that American guidance is still making wild swings and has no idea what is going on. At this point I'd say hump the Euro and its Ensembles which have been by far the most steady the past 2-3 days. I think if it were the other way around, with the EURO and EPS continuously showing big hits, and the GEFS jumping around, we'd have tossed them immediately. The only reason its being mentioned is because its one of the last vestiges showing something interesting. And we know no one trusts the GGEM and NAM when they are on their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Since we knew 2 days ago this was OTS..let's focus now on some towns staying in the 40's for highs the next 2 days set up a thread for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Since we knew 2 days ago this was OTS..let's focus now on some towns staying in the 40's for highs the next 2 days. Quite possible for locations in GC through northern ORH county and north. 43.1/38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Quite possible for locations in GC through northern ORH county and north. 43.1/38 Less possible there with more sun. But ORH south clouds and rain could hold hills under 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Since we knew 2 days ago this was OTS..let's focus now on some towns staying in the 40's for highs the next 2 dayssince this is a thread about the hurricane, no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Less possible there with more sun. But ORH south clouds and rain could hold hills under 50 I love how you posted on fb saying CT hill towns are 5-10F cooler vs valley. Defying the laws of physics since 2003... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Come to grips with it people....the hurricane is not Joaquin through that door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I love how you posted on fb saying CT hill towns are 5-10F cooler vs valley. Defying the laws of physics since 2003... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I love how you posted on fb saying CT hill towns are 5-10F cooler vs valley. Defying the laws of physics since 2003...lol the hills in general of SNE seem to defy thermodynamics when there are leaves on the trees.In the winter it often returns to normal lapse rates. Sunny day in July is like 75F at 1,000ft and 85F at 200ft. But in January it's 25F at 1,000ft and 28F at 200ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Come to grips with it people....the hurricane is not Joaquin through that door Lol thats awesome for someone who first said this was a horrible thread title, apparently you now get it, lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I learned something from all this: the ARPEGE sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Lol thats awesome for someone who first said this was a horrible thread title, apparently you now get it, lmaoWhen will the best wave heights be down by the RI shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 I was thinking about this last night. this would be the perfect place to put Ray, Jay and Kevin and all the others who want to experience a cane. put them on an isolated Bahama Island in a old Army bunker for 3 days, perfect. Nobody dies, nobody's house,school,church is destroyed. Its just them versus nature. we should set up a go fund me account , we could throw EEK in there as a bonus . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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