Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Can't even imagine what its been like in the Bahamas for 54 hrs, there is a container ship missing with 33 aboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Well yes, the Euro was curling westward when it was 7 days out. The first run to show completely out-to-sea was 00z Tuesday (Monday night's run). The other models started to pick up on Thursday, and here on Friday, some still think this may hit land (NAM). In terms of practical forecasting, the model was pretty dead set on dissent when it started to actually matter. With 120 hours of lead time, it schooled the American guidance. What it showed at day 7-10 is fairly irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Agree. However, it would not surprise me if the final track ends up being quite a bit farther west than some of the Euro OP solutions over the past few days. The 12z GEFS were actually quite a bit west of the 6z GEFS up around our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Well yes, the Euro was curling westward when it was 7 days out. The first run to show completely out-to-sea was 00z Tuesday (Monday night's run). The other models started to pick up on Thursday, and here on Friday, some still think this may hit land (NAM). In terms of practical forecasting, the model was pretty dead set on dissent when it started to actually matter. With 120 hours of lead time, it schooled the American guidance. What it showed at day 7-10 is fairly irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Ha, "when it started to actually mattered" ? when exactly is that - I'll tell yaz what, if J. did the lower probability NAM thing, it would be: NEVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Can't even imagine what its been like in the Bahamas for 54 hrs, there is a container ship missing with 33 aboard It's pretty fortunate that it wasn't 100-150 miles west where the higher populations are. That would have been 100x worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Ha, "when it started to actually mattered" ? when exactly is that - I'll tell yaz what, if J. did the lower probability NAM thing, it would be: NEVER Research shows that the public really begins to pay attention at a faster rate between 5 days and 4 days out (and getting more and more tuned in after that). It kind of matches our anecdotel analysis of nobody really cares out in clown range except us weather weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Ha, "when it started to actually mattered" ? when exactly is that - I'll tell yaz what, if J. did the lower probability NAM thing, it would be: NEVER Lower is an understatement. Only weenie hope now is for King James on the Cape for the slim, but still remaining, possibility of a scrape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I assume new Euro is safely out to sea with no bending back up at these latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 I assume new Euro is safely out to sea with no bending back up at these latitudes. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 4m4 minutes agoState College, PA ECMWF at 75 west tomorrow at 18z has 110 mb difference between 1044 mb high over Quebec and 934 Joaquin ne of Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The piss poor posts on twitter from so called mets are astounding. I also have seen some sticking up for the NAM and basically getting all upset that people trash it. You have to be kidding me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I assume new Euro is safely out to sea with no bending back up at these latitudes. Yeah it's shark food. Still windy here though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Ha, "when it started to actually mattered" ? when exactly is that - I'll tell yaz what, if J. did the lower probability NAM thing, it would be: NEVER Uh oh Tippy. Borrowed from MA thread. Of course, I wouldn't expect the path to be linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 4m4 minutes agoState College, PA ECMWF at 75 west tomorrow at 18z has 110 mb difference between 1044 mb high over Quebec and 934 Joaquin ne of Bahamas Impressive as statistical trivia, but that's about it... the locality of the lp makes it just about irrelevant WRT any sort of large scale pressure gradient implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 I love Nelly nellycarrenoHard being a Meteorologist…& then u have to get on TV & explain the center of Hurricane Joaquin is right over.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The piss poor posts on twitter from so called mets are astounding. I also have seen some sticking up for the NAM and basically getting all upset that people trash it. You have to be kidding me. The NAM is a convection model...it has it's specific usefulness in the winter too (things such as CAD, etc) if you can identify the right situations...but I can't believe a lot of meteorologists would defend it from a synoptic perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Impressive as statistical trivia, but that's about it... the locality of the lp makes it just about irrelevant WRT any sort of large scale pressure gradient implications. Perfect huge swells setup, we don't toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The NAM is a convection model...it has it's specific usefulness in the winter too (things such as CAD, etc) if you can identify the right situations...but I can't believe a lot of meteorologists would defend it from a synoptic perspective. I think a lot of these people defending it are more researchers and those who don't do much operational forecast. I've been seeing those "well don't count your chickens before they hatch" type posts...and "oh well you have to treat it as part of an ensemble of guidance" etc. No, you don't actually. Most know when to toss it. There is always those in academia and research that are clueless and must incorporate it into the forecast when it actually will make the forecast worse if you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 I think a lot of these people defending it are more researchers and those who don't do much operational forecast. I've been seeing those "well don't count your chickens before they hatch" type posts...and "oh well you have to treat it as part of an ensemble of guidance" etc. No, you don't actually. Most know when to toss it. There is always those in academia and research that are clueless and must incorporate it into the forecast when it actually will make the forecast worse if you do. Toss it as far as you can from the top of the Grand Canyon. We need to start from scratch, embarrassment. I don't even buy the its good for summer convection and micro-scale analysis anymore. Its wrong more than right and even the lowly Can's models are schooling it at Mesoscale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Agree. However, it would not surprise me if the final track ends up being quite a bit farther west than some of the Euro OP solutions over the past few days. The 12z GEFS were actually quite a bit west of the 6z GEFS up around our latitude. I heard the 6z GEFS were really far east, so there was really only one direction in which to trend lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Toss it as far as you can from the top of the Grand Canyon. We need to start from scratch, embarrassment. I don't even buy the its good for summer convection and micro-scale analysis anymore. Its wrong more than right and even the lowly Can's models are schooling it at Mesoscale. Well the RGEM has always been pretty decent...even before it got upgraded a couple to three years ago. It's a vastly superior model in the winter these days though since the upgrade....no doubt about it. I still think the NAM is pretty solid for convection. Just don't use it to forecast where a supercell will develop...but rather a general region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Steve, I keep looking at your avatar picture, and I Cant make out what is between your two dogs? Is it a foot? It looks skin color lol. Or is there even two dogs in that picture?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM like any model is good when you know how to use it. Mesoscale features, convection, heavy rain events, even banding in storms etc...but these are all things that you do near term. For forecasts, especially with synoptic storms or TCs...there is no way around it. It doesn't work well as a forecast beyond 36-48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Geezus @USCGSoutheast rescuing all 12 crew members from 212' M/V Minouche near #Joaquin #coastguard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM like any model is good when you know how to use it. Mesoscale features, convection, heavy rain events, even banding in storms etc...but these are all things that you do near term. For forecasts, especially with synoptic storms or TCs...there is no way around it. It doesn't work well as a forecast beyond 36-48 hrs. Exactly. How many "mets" take a look at the snow/clown map from the NAM and then say how crappy it was. That's not the way it's designed to work - of course it will be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Ha, "when it started to actually mattered" ? when exactly is that - C'mon you know what that means, haha. I know you're a smart and reasonable guy. "When it started to actually matter" doesn't mean at Day 9. I'd say inside of 120 hours...5 days out...is a good starting point. That's plenty of lead time to prepare or not prepare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Steve, I keep looking at your avatar picture, and I Cant make out what is between your two dogs? Is it a foot? It looks skin color lol. Or is there even two dogs in that picture?? My two chiuhuahuas buds, Paco the black and white guy was at the Vet getting xrays today, may have sprained his back/neck but he will be Ok. Both rescues, OBI was a street dog for two years and we got him hours before the shelter was going to kill him. Had to zoom in on avatar as I don't have the original on my computer and you have to reduce the size of the original to insane small size. Winter avatar soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Well the RGEM has always been pretty decent...even before it got upgraded a couple to three years ago. It's a vastly superior model in the winter these days though since the upgrade....no doubt about it. I still think the NAM is pretty solid for convection. Just don't use it to forecast where a supercell will develop...but rather a general region. Its anecdotal, but I used to think the old ETA was more workable in the winter than the current NAM. I have absolutely no data to back that up though. But the old ETA would find the cheese once in a while and steal the show, even in winter synoptic events. But maybe that's because the GFS/ECM/GGEM were obviously less accurate ten years ago than they are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM like any model is good when you know how to use it. Mesoscale features, convection, heavy rain events, even banding in storms etc...but these are all things that you do near term. For forecasts, especially with synoptic storms or TCs...there is no way around it. It doesn't work well as a forecast beyond 36-48 hrs. I don't buy it, how many times have we seen and heard in this very forum the excited 12 hr Nam posts about convection and nam soundings only to see it fail again and again, sure it has some value but again there are much much better more accurate resources out there, I agree about banding but that is often more used as a signal. All models have some value others just have a lot more. Remix time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Maybe some gusts to 40 inland 55 coast tomorrow based on gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't buy it, how many times have we seen and heard in this very forum the excited 12 hr Nam posts about convection and nam soundings only to see it fail again and again, sure it has some value but again there are much much better more accurate resources out there, I agree about banding but that is often more used as a signal. All models have some value others just have a lot more. Remix time Convection by nature is fickle so I'm not sure you can blame the NAM in your case. The NAM is designed more for convection...especially with initialization of convection along mesoscale boundaries etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't buy it, how many times have we seen and heard in this very forum the excited 12 hr Nam posts about convection and nam soundings only to see it fail again and again, sure it has some value but again there are much much better more accurate resources out there, I agree about banding but that is often more used as a signal. All models have some value others just have a lot more. Remix time Agreed. Its so unstable in most situations that you can't take it seriously as you know in 6 hours, it'll be completely different. The other thing I can't figure out is when the different resolutions of the NAM offer vastly different scenarios from each other. In the winter you'll have the 12km NAM with a benchmark track while the 4km takes it up the CT River or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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