ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Can we please talk about the intensity of this hurricane instead of winter storms. There's an entire thread devoted to the storm itself (regardless of regional impacts) on the main weather forum page. Not that we should turn this into a winter storm thread either but this thread isn't meant for play by play of intensity and structure of the storm. It was meant for how it might affect New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Joaquin is over the source waters of the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Satellite estimates show from ADT that Joaquin has a pressure of 932mb and 127 knot winds. This is a strong category four hurricane at the very least and could be a category five hurricane. When does recon get in there? 7:30 like last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yes Hoth, around 730pm. I think Joaquin could still move northwestward towards SNE in the later periods, near days 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's really not even so much a cone issue when it comes to this forecast, it's putting the black line down the middle of the cones. The cone may actually represent where the center tracks (albeit on the edges of the cone, and maybe only for 24 hours or so), but the black line makes it seems like that's where the center will go. At least removing that line would improve what's out there a little bit. In reality, anyone in the cone should have at least one eye on Joaquin just in case, but I don't think anyone in New England should be thinking that come Monday evening a TC is going to be churning off of MTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yes Hoth, around 730pm. I think Joaquin could still move northwestward towards SNE in the later periods, near days 4-5.Why?what in God's creation would ever, ever give you that impression? Unless someone was severely intoxicated..They would never, ever think that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Why?what in God's creation would ever, ever give you that impression? Unless someone was severely intoxicated..They would never, ever think thatGfdl all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Miami has entered the cirrus smoking party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Couldn't be much worse for Bahamas, this must be among their worst if not worst storm in modern record last HWRF has this start to turn north around 0z, should be apparent over next few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GOES22452015274q3qdGS_10_01_6pm.jpg Couldn't be much worse for Bahamas, this must be among their worst if not worst storm in modern record last HWRF has this start to turn north around 0z, should be apparent over next few hours It's comparable to Andrew....that system ripped through with 150mph sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's 00z now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 There's an entire thread devoted to the storm itself (regardless of regional impacts) on the main weather forum page. Not that we should turn this into a winter storm thread either but this thread isn't meant for play by play of intensity and structure of the storm. It was meant for how it might affect New England. lol if this was a winter storm and we went OT you would move posts in a second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 They are going to find probably about 145-150mph imo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Will, you know yourself it sucks posting in the main thread. The real hardcore tropical guys are snippy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GEFS are quite wet this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 They are going to find probably about 145-150mph imo...nice, great call James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Will, you know yourself it sucks posting in the main thread. The real hardcore tropical guys are snippy. lol odd response by William Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 123 kt flight level, 116 kt SFMR in SW quadrant. Pressure 931mb. This is a very intense hurricane. I think they are having communication problems again. Jeez.... Very comparable to Andrew intensity wise, but larger. Bahamas are porked. Looks as though it may be slowing, though, so it may start the turn soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 down to 937mb.. maybe it will head west into the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 They are going to find probably about 145-150mph imo...Gusts to 200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Any thoughts on the estimated population of the section of the Bahamas that is feeling the teeth of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Any thoughts on the estimated population of the section of the Bahamas that is feeling the teeth of the storm?3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 How Meteorologists Botched The Blizzard Of 2015 "Roads and trains were shut down across the New York area Monday night and into Tuesday, and for what? It snowed in New York, but only 9.8 inches fell in Central Park after predictions of a foot and a half or more. What went wrong? Forecasters, including yours truly, decided to go all-in on one weather model: the European model (or Euro). And the Euro was way off. Other models had this storm pegged.1 Update after update, the Euro (produced by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) kept predicting very high snow totals in New York. As of Monday morning’s run, the Euro was still projecting a foot and a half in the city. This consistency was too great for forecasters to ignore, especially because the Euro had been the first to jump on events such as the blizzard of 1996 and Hurricane Sandy. It also was one of the first to predict that a March 2001 storm was going to, like this one, be a bust. The Euro had a good track record." http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-meteorologists-botched-the-blizzard-of-2015/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 if you look at the population of the Bahamas so far affected in terms of hurricane force winds, its approximately 7500 folks so far, as the storm has basically affected the least populated islands so far. however as it moves north (towards the more populated islands), that could change drastically depending on how far west it gets. probably the craziest thing ive read is the 10 people hanging out on Samana Cays without any good shelter (caught there on an expedition?), if those people survive, well I will be shocked, and if they do, what a story they will have to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 All, best website for fast satellite pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just reading through the thread. I am surprised that with the intensity of the storm we are not seeing a symmetrical clear eye. Usually when we are up in Cat's 4 we have a much better defined eye, don't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just reading through the thread. I am surprised that with the intensity of the storm we are not seeing a symmetrical clear eye. Usually when we are up in Cat's 4 we have a much better defined eye, don't we? Unless it starts to weaken...whether it be an ERC, or some other atmospheric impediment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's 00z now Actually it was 23:27z at the time of your 7:27pm post... My point is that we should be seeing evidence of northward jogs in the next few hours. And I understand this is unlikely to have any impact on SNE. Meanwhile... SC, NC, VA, NJ states of emergency so far. Either NHC is holding out for the extremely unlikely but potentially devastating scenario of being wrong, or communication is just not clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Actually it was 23:27z at the time of your 7:27pm post... My point is that we should be seeing evidence of northward jogs in the next few hours. And I understand this is unlikely to have any impact on SNE. Meanwhile... SC, NC, VA, NJ states of emergency so far. Either NHC is holding out for the extremely unlikely but potentially devastating scenario of being wrong, or communication is just not clear. No, I know you do. I wasn't implying anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 18z run of the NAVGEM just went out to sea, too... Looks like we have a consensus: deliberate attempt by god to make the Met community lose all credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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