Zeus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think I'm with you. Looks like it's doing the wobble wobble. Interesting to note that euro has this dropping south for several more hours but it seems to be heading west. NHC has this turning north soon and that doesn't look to be happening either. Definition of low confidence. Jesus lol I really prefer water vapor loop for this storm to get a handle on its motion and structure lately. That eye is actually kind of ragged for a cat 4; if it becomes more symmetrical and tightens up, there could be another uptick in strength even still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 12z Euro deson't really look like it buries it south...it's mostly due west through 18-24 hours. Maybe a brief wobble slightly south of due west between 6-12 hours, but it's splitting hairs. In short, I don't think the current storm motion is inconsistent with a final Euro solution of recurving this. We'd probably need to wait until tonight or tomorrow morning to notice if anything was significantly "off". Was just about to post the same thing. It's a slow crawl due west from 18z today through 6z tonight....then the north turn begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like 74.3 W 23.2 N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Get out on the football field and take your cone with you lol...have you ever watched an OL run a cone drill? Not pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 lol...have you ever watched an OL run a cone drill? Not pretty.We are fat athletes I'll take video to prove. Nothing more appealing than watching sweaty fat men do agility drills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 12z Euro deson't really look like it buries it south...it's mostly due west through 18-24 hours. Maybe a brief wobble slightly south of due west between 6-12 hours, but it's splitting hairs. In short, I don't think the current storm motion is inconsistent with a final Euro solution of recurving this. We'd probably need to wait until tonight or tomorrow morning to notice if anything was significantly "off". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I wish that trough would pass it by....gog, this would be an Andrew redux. What a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 considering how strong Joaquin is now with a ragged eye, imagine how strong he will get with a circular and clearing out eye? I see category five hurricane in his future. Unfortunately for the Bahamas they are in the middle of this cyclone's intensification phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I wish that trough would pass it by....gog, this would be an Andrew redux. What a disaster. It's always a shame to see a red meat cyclone go to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's always a shame to see a red meat cyclone go to waste. I'm almost ready to "nowcast and ignore models"....I need some sort of enjoyment after all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm almost ready to "nowcast and ignore models"....I need some sort of enjoyment after all of this. Meteorological Grief stage 2.... Stage 1 is "It's just one model run" and "at least all the other guidance still shows a huge hit". Still haven't quite reached stages 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Almost a 50/50 split now. I don't have the 12z for comparison but I believe more members are now West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm still trying to figure out what the hell Ray is rooting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm still trying to figure out what the hell Ray is rooting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Imagine the craziness if the models turned back west tonight not going to happen but what if lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Almost a 50/50 split now. I don't have the 12z for comparison but I believe more members are now West Congrats on the Canadian, NAVGEM, and BAMD on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ugh. I hated that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 CCB.gif Eyewall right over TAN? Let's do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Congrats on the Canadian, NAVGEM, and BAMD on your side. Don't forget the ARPEGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Eyewall right over TAN? Let's do it.no CF no pants party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm still trying to figure out what the hell Ray is rooting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Meteorological Grief stage 2.... Stage 1 is "It's just one model run" and "at least all the other guidance still shows a huge hit". Still haven't quite reached stages 3-5. Stage 3: RAD/SAT hallucinations.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 CCB.gif In due time, scootahson For now, I major LF from NC points south. But if you really want me to be fresh....cat 4+ "sustains it's own envt". and barrels into Miami proper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Don't forget the ARPEGE. Don't forget the ARPEGE. Did you just make that up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Congrats on the Canadian, NAVGEM, and BAMD on your side. Coastal, there is that cluster of solutions on the right that are out to sea but seem to want to bend J back NNW towards New England. I guess it would not take too much of a change to bring J close enough to E New England for impacts. As it's slowly whinning down up in these latitudes I would guess its wind/rain field would expand so perhaps we would experience something?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Did you just make that up? Nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 May have just wobbled south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The movement has been west overall over the past few hours with a few wobbles south added in. NHC didn't have it reaching 75W with official track and it appears it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm almost ready to "nowcast and ignore models"....I need some sort of enjoyment after all of this. I know I'm going to have to avoid that. It almost always goes the same way, "it looks like it's moving further N/S/E/W than modeled! We still don't know what's going to happen!!" Fast forward to twelve hours later, and the dominant model ended up being 99.9% correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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