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No Joaquin the park forecast for Mets


Ginx snewx

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Is it me or does it seem like the northern extend of the tracks have been getting pushed back time wise.  I mean now we're looking at Monday PM still well south.  

 

I'm still reading through and catching up to the conversation, but I think this is key. We said it a few days ago, the faster Joaquin moved north the more likely a hit was. The longer the delay, and the more likely OTS became.

 

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UGH

 

GOV. MALLOY ENCOURAGES RESIDENTS TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS FOR POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

Connecticut Emergency Management Officials Continue to Monitor Track of Hurricane Joaquin, Prepare Response Services

 

(HARTFORD, CT) – Governor Dannel P. Malloy today said that with Hurricane Joaquin currently forecast to impact the east coast over the next several days, he is asking Connecticut residents to closely monitor the storm’s path and be prepared for severe weather conditions.  The Governor continues to work with state emergency management officials to monitor the storm and make preparations for necessary state response.

 

“Just as the state is monitoring and preparing, the public should do the same,” Governor Malloy said.  “Weather models are predicting that Hurricane Joaquin may move onshore in the area of the northeast coast this weekend.  Although its potential impact on Connecticut is still developing as forecasts adjust, we need to be prepared because these types of storms can oftentimes be unpredictable.  We will continue to update residents, and in the meantime we urge folks to begin making preparations.”

 

The state Division of Emergency Management and Homeland Security (DEMHS) has been participating in National Weather Service conference calls to receive the latest information on the storm’s tr

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I'm still reading through and catching up to the conversation, but I think this is key. We said it a few days ago, the faster Joaquin moved north the more likely a hit was. The longer the delay, and the more likely OTS became.

 

 

I agree with this in premise. A Land-falling TC north of the subtropics is usually all about excellent timing. That said, we do have a quite unusual pattern in that we don't have another trough sweeping in, in this one's wake. 

 

The timing, now,  is really with regard to the strength of the block. The first good opportunity was lost. However, it is conceivable to see a temporary weakness in the block, overcome and build back in, as Jaoquin begins the turn northward...

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Stage 2 fodder:

 

Center is a bit further west (? 50-100 miles) than the NHC track or where the 12z Euro or 12z HWRF had it at this time, with a wobbly southwest heading:

 

attachicon.gifSat_10_01_15_15z.png

 

Based on this the NHC is actually doing well. The Euro and NHC "center of  cone" diverge quite early, so the NHC looks like it is scoring some early points here...

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Coastal,  there is that cluster of solutions on the right that are out to sea but seem to want to bend J back NNW towards New England.  I guess it would not take too much of a change to bring J close enough to E New England for impacts.  As it's slowly whinning  down up in these latitudes I would guess its wind/rain field would expand so perhaps we would experience something??

 

I still think any effects will be difficult to get here in SE areas..nevermind NNE. It would take a big model shift...something I don't see at this time right now.

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What would happen if all of the models are still underestimating the southern extent of Joaquin's track? Could it just decide to go straight into FL if it misses the trough completely?

My last vestige of weenie hope.....at this point, dig for oil.

If it ever mixed that damn trough, all bets are off.

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The earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported
700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt in the southwestern eyewall,
with a subsequent 114-kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped
Frequency Microwave Radiometer in the southeastern eyewall. The
last central pressure extrapolated from the aircraft data was 936
mb. In addition, satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB,
and CIMSS are now in the 115-127 kt range. Based on these data, the
intensity was increased to 115 kt at 1800 UTC, making Joaquin a
Category 4 hurricane. While this advisory will not increase the
intensity any further, it is expected that the next aircraft
arriving in the hurricane near 0000 UTC will find a stronger system.

Joaquin is expected to intensify a little more during the next 12
hours or so as it remains over very warm waters and in an
environment of decreasing vertical shear. After that time, there
could be some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement
cycles. While there remains some uncertainty regarding the
intensity in the 48-96 hour range, the new forecast is
similar to the previous forecast in calling for a steady weakening
during this period. Overall, the intensity forecast lies near the
upper edge of the guidance envelope.

Joaquin has moved with a more westward component during the past few
hours and the initial motion is now 235/5. Water vapor imagery
shows a mid- to upper-level ridge north of the hurricane, with a
developing deep-layer trough over the eastern and southeastern
United States. The dynamical models forecast this trough to become a
cut-off low as it moves southeastward and weakens the ridge. This
pattern evolution should cause Joaquin to turn northward in 12-24
hours. The guidance after 48 hours has changed somewhat since the
last advisory, with the GFS and the UKMET moving farther to the east
and lying closer to the ECMWF. In addition, the HWRF has made a
big jump to the east and now shows an offshore track. These changes
have pushed the consensus models farther eastward.
The Canadian, GFDL, and NAVGEM models are holdouts, however - still
calling for Joaquin to interact with the United States trough and
turn northwestward toward the U. S. coast. The new forecast track
is adjusted to the east of the previous forecast between 48-120
hours, but it still lies well to the left of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF,
HWRF, and the consensus models. Further eastward adjustments to the
track are likely.

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I think this NHC track is right on.

I knew you'd like that track. Unfortunately for you there's this at the end of the disco:

 

 

The new forecast track is adjusted to the east of the previous forecast between 48-120 hours, but it still lies well to the left of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, HWRF, and the consensus models. Further eastward adjustments to the track are likely.

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