Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 You have to know when CR is poking fun. Yeah...I said earlier that we're dealing with some pretty unusual features that have converged in temporal proximity. There could very well be surprises, as there often are with strong canes. But the Euro has been steadfast, and so it makes it hard to bet too strongly against. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm still shoveling NAM snow from last season.Lol for real. I think the thing that I take away is we still have a lot of time for things to swing either way. I hope it is OTS but I still believe all cards are on the table until this storm moves one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 so we go from ots on the 18z nam to a landfall south of myrtle on the 00z. oy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Should get one more pass before the 11:00 advisory... Flight is inbound from the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 mercy...nam has it making landfall SOUTH of charleston...only 700 or 800 miles difference from 6 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 America is giving the Europeans a run for their money.... keep in mind the GFS was upgraded post sandy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 mercy...nam has it making landfall SOUTH of charleston...only 700 or 800 miles difference from 6 hours ago. That's how you have Katrina but in Charleston. Pushes all the water up the bays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yeah...I said earlier that we're dealing with some pretty unusual features that have converged in temporal proximity. There could very well be surprises, as there often are with strong canes. But the Euro has been steadfast, and so it makes it hard to bet too strongly against. Oh I agree. The euro has not wavered much at all. You are right the upper air flow has a lot going on and this is a unique situation either way it turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Greetings everyone, and I hope you are well. This is an amazing hurricane, and it is in a dangerous position for the east coast. We won't have a good handle on its track until it at least starts to turn northward. The emphasis in the media has been put too heavily on the model differences and the euro winning again. Its a point of course, but more to the point is this major hurricane still in a dangerous position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 if nothing else the nam at least shows that there are a lot of moving parts/possibilites left on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 00z euro comes out at 2am est right? I may be staying up for this to see if it even caves west just a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 00z euro comes out at 2am est right? I may be staying up for this to see if it even caves west just a tad No need to. GFS comes out in hour so well see when it comes out. Either GFS trends towards the NAM or Euro. We will have our answer then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 mercy...nam has it making landfall SOUTH of charleston...only 700 or 800 miles difference from 6 hours ago. I lived in PA for many years, and the NAM often sniffed out track changes in winter storms first. It may be one of the worst models to base a forecast upon, but it is a good trip wire model when changes are afoot. Doesn't mean it has the correct forecast, but it is a trend setter of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This NAM run also cuts way back on rain amounts from ULL.. 3-4 inches most of C and WNC less east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The key is timing the models that have it landfall all keep it moving and take it north early, the ones the are OTS stall it in the Bahamas for another 36hrs or so before really taking off NE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The NAM makes landfall near Charleston, SC. Well, then.... Is this the NAM being the NAM or will some other models follow suit tonight? Recall the Canadian and NAVGEM also showed landfalls in the Carolinas at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 00z euro comes out at 2am est right? I may be staying up for this to see if it even caves west just a tad Yep. It should be finished with our timeframe by 2:30 AM or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Man. Way out east on the new NHC cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The NAM makes landfall near Charleston, SC. Well, then.... Is this the NAM being the NAM or will some other models follow suit tonight? Recall the Canadian and NAVGEM also currently show landfalls in the Carolinas. And we should fairly point out that just as the ECWMFZQLOL has been a steady fish, the Navgem has been a rock solid hit every time. What does the Navy know that the Europeans don't, I wonder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The NAM makes landfall near Charleston, SC. Well, then.... Is this the NAM being the NAM or will some other models follow suit tonight? Recall the Canadian and NAVGEM also showed landfalls in the Carolinas at 12z. RGEM will be out in 20 mins, if it gets it west of 75w at 24 hours then we have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 mercy...nam has it making landfall SOUTH of charleston...only 700 or 800 miles difference from 6 hours ago. Imagine that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 00Z 4K NAM is very different from the 12K NAM. The 4K continues to focus the rainfall along a track from Charleston to the SE facing slopes of the Apps, and it takes Joaquin out to sea. With its higher resolution and with a nod to consistency, the 4K NAM should be given much greater weight than the 12K NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 That's a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Man. Way out east on the new NHC cone They had mentioned that in the 8:00 update, and mention moving it even further East in the 11:00 disco... Recent reconnaissance fixes suggest that Joaquin has turned westwardand slowed down, with an initial motion of 260/3. The mid- toupper-level ridge that has been steering Joaquin southwestward isexpected to quickly weaken overnight while a mid- to upper-leveltrough over the southeastern United States deepens and cuts off.This should cause Joaquin to turn northward on Friday, and movenorth-northeastward at a faster forward speed Friday night andSaturday. The model envelope has again shifted eastward, with theGFDL and NAVGEM models now joining the other dynamical models whichkeep Joaquin offshore of the United States east coast. This hasrequired another eastward shift to the NHC forecast, but it stilllies to the west of the multi-model consensus and the most recentruns of the GFS and ECMWF models. The updated track is closest tothe GFS ensemble mean. Additional eastward adjustments could berequired to the official forecast overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The NAM makes landfall near Charleston, SC. Well, then.... Is this the NAM being the NAM or will some other models follow suit tonight? Recall the Canadian and NAVGEM also showed landfalls in the Carolinas at 12z. I certainly wouldn't go against the Euro and GFS because the NAM had a crazy run but it is a unique setup for sure. I'm interested to see the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The animated wv shows the energy moving from the midwest into the gom even all the way to the west coast of Cuba now slowing the western progress of Joaquin http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 First peek at the Bahamas ground conditions... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cak3aSSLY4w&app=desktop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Its being pinched from three sides it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Looks like it could take the path of least resistence and drift right up the fl coast and into savannah. Defies all odds but hey, what else has been normal about this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 HRRR is actually west of the NAM before re-curving.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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