Poimen Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hard to beleive a storm crossing 75 west is going to completely miss land, but that appears to be what's in the cards. It happens quite frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Tell that to the Bahamas LOL. Conus land. Its at about 74.5 but will be crossing 75 very soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 LOL. Conus land. Its at about 74.5 but will be crossing 75 very soon He's now a cat 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If he doesnt slow down/change direction soon he will be at the 24hr position plot in a few hrs, someone needs to tell him to stay on schedule.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 How is Joaquin strengthening despite essentially sitting and spinning over the same area churning up cooler waters ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 How is Joaquin strengthening despite essentially sitting and spinning over the same area churning up cooler waters ? First he isn't sitting still at all, second that water is very warm and not just at the surface.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 He hasn't weakened because he is one bad tail mother trucker lol. The warm water extends pretty far below the surface so it will take a while for him to churn cold water up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 How much influence does the speed at which he's moving now change the potential path? Think it gets him to the same projected place just faster or is that the smoking gun to yank him coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Crooked island in the Bahamas is taking a beating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 euro is ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro says it takes 18 hrs before he gets to 75 west. We'll see its a pretty looking cane thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 TWC is spending almost all of their time talking about Joaquin and not talking much about the ULL despite the fact the ULL will likely have a much bigger impact on the US. Also, they are talking about Joaquin and showing a map showing 12" or more of rain making it sound like Joaquin is going to bring over a foot of rain to the US. Very confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 TWC is spending almost all of their time talking about Joaquin and not talking much about the ULL despite the fact the ULL will likely have a much bigger impact on the US. Also, they are talking about Joaquin and showing a map showing 12" or more of rain making it sound like Joaquin is going to bring over a foot of rain to the US. Very confusing. Most people couldn't care less what causes their flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro says it takes 18 hrs before he gets to 75 west. We'll see its a pretty looking cane thats for sure. Can you imagine being on one of those islands getting cat-4 hurricane conditions for 24 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Most people couldn't care less what causes their flood. Also, Joaquin is still contributing moisture right into the southeast. They were showing that earlier on TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Most people couldn't care less what causes their flood. I agree with that but I am also reading a lot of comments on Facebook from people saying they won't get any rain because Joaquin is going out to sea. I think TWC is confusing a lot of people. The general public is associating the rain with Joaquin and assuming that if Joaquin goes out to sea then it won't rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 TWC is spending almost all of their time talking about Joaquin and not talking much about the ULL despite the fact the ULL will likely have a much bigger impact on the US. Also, they are talking about Joaquin and showing a map showing 12" or more of rain making it sound like Joaquin is going to bring over a foot of rain to the US. Very confusing. They have a banner at the bottom of the screen saying "Flooding rains despite Joaquin" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Guess we shall have to wait and see but the storm motion and speed right now really dosnt jive with what the Euro just ran at all at least short term, the storm needs to go almost due south 40-50 miles and stop to be at the point the Euro that just ran says its gonna be at in 24 hrs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I hope the people in Bermuda are getting prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This thing is going to slam into the west coast of Japan if these trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 BULLETINHURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015200 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015...JOAQUIN BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE......CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORMSURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...23.0N 74.2WABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMASMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 HWRF concedes to Euro.... I saw someone mention it but here's the track. Wonder how east the NHC will correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hard to argue against the major shifts in the models. With all the ingested data and strong trends east its clear the threat is at least lessening and significantly so for the east coast IMO. He does seem to be moving steadily westward right now so we will see if that has any implications down the road. Very complex setup and i'm sure its been rough on the forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Does anyone know what is influencing the eastward trend in the models? Is Joachim being influenced by the disturbance to the northeast or is there a change in the ULL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Does anyone know what is influencing the eastward trend in the models? Is Joachim being influenced by the disturbance to the northeast or is there a change in the ULL? Well way I see it is the timing is slower, when the models liked the landfall the storm was faster coming north out of the Bahamas and the ULL was further west so it was close enough to capture the storm but not close enough to kick it out and now the models are slower with the storm in the Bahamas and by the time the storm comes north the ULL is close and kicks to the storm OTS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Still moving WSW, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Still moving WSW, lol Yeah he is already past his forecasted plot and still moving wsw. Shouldn't mean anything in the long run but certainly interesting and devastating for the central bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 The further SW it goes, wouldn't that possibly change the interaction with the ULL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The further SW it goes, wouldn't that possibly change the interaction with the ULL? I think the farther SW it goes, the more apt it will be to get punted by the ULL instead of incorporated. You'd want it to be trucking NW by now, if you want it to be captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Does anyone know what is influencing the eastward trend in the models? Is Joachim being influenced by the disturbance to the northeast or is there a change in the ULL? Just by looking at the GFS 06z vs 12z, comparing hour 90, ULL hangs back a little longer in the newer run and isn't as far south and east when it needs to be...Joaquin is not as far north and slightly more east although not much...end result is not enough interaction so Joaquin is allowed to go OTS. Check out the 12z from yesterday....a LOT faster (basically 24 hours quicker) and the interaction is there. Compare that with the runs today and the GFS is just now figuring out what the Euro has hand for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.