cyclone77 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Main cool front is just now entering western IA. Plenty of destabilization taking place ahead of that. The east/west OFB along I-80 is lifting north west of the eastern IA action, and is sort of losing it's definition. Makes sense given the strong mixing taking place out that way. Main storms will probably fire along the cool front later this afternoon around, or just after it crosses I-35. Plenty of time for destabilization out ahead of that over southern WI/northern IL. Will take far less time to re-destabilize due to the strong daytime LLJ accompanied by unaltered lapse rates waiting upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Little bit of a chaotic wind field in northern IL but southerly flow trying to reestablish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Line of showers in N IL are dissipating, let's see if we can get some sun to break through in the next hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 If I were chasing, which I am not today, I'd play the IOW-MLI-GBG-EOK box for the cold front/OFB intersection later on. And hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Nice little couplet south of Mt. Vernon Iowa. Might be slightly elevated as the BL is a bit stable. Radar can't see low enough to see how far down the meso extends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Temp rocketing here or at least it feels like it... full sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Little bit of a chaotic wind field in northern IL but southerly flow trying to reestablish Feel like after the OFB washes out (if it does) that those southerly and SSE'ly winds will veer back to SSW/SW... EDIT: Unless you brought that up talking about moisture return. In which case I see your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 83/71 in BG. Filtered sun but nothing more than that. Really not sure what to expect the rest of the day/night, but that's true for about 99% of this subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 It looks to me that the "main show" gets fired up in south-central to east-central Iowa later this afternoon. The upstream environment includes strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE), great theta-e advection and lies on the fringe of steep mid-level lapse rates. As mentioned, winds are locally backed near and just south of I-80 in the eastern half of Iowa. An outflow boundary is somewhere in the vicinity of I-80, roughly. Latest HRRR guidance supports thunderstorm development in the southeastern third of Iowa by mid to late afternoon, with the threat shifting east into northwestern Illinois. There should be solid air-mass recovery across much of southern Iowa, barring some sort of premature convective explosion. Capping may help stop that from happening. I think if you want tornadoes, it will be in southeastern Iowa and may extend into northwestern Illinois. If the flow also remains at least somewhat backed, we may sustain supercells for several hours and see the threat of a strong tornado. That's my thinking based off of the latest obs and trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Well, if you look at the latest visible satellite loop is appears that clouds have been clearing gradually for a bit, and in the last 30 minutes or so at a bit of a faster clip... at least some clearing is occurring over SE IA and E IL attm with temps ranging in the upper 70's to low 80's across this area as well as C IL, and that should translate north and east some over the next hour or two. Ceilings are coming up quick now. Still solid mid level clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Wouldn't sleep on areas generally south of GRR-Lansing-Flint in MI either. The MCS is becoming ill-defined on its southern flank and there should be at least decent destabilization through the afternoon, in addition to near-surface flow that might stay backed for longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The latest mesoscale discussion echoes my previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 OFB has stalled and even looks to be lifting a bit north out by Muscatine IA. Storms in eastern Iowa may shove it back south though. This would be an easier forecast if the festering convection in eastern IA didn't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The HRRR doesn't have a clue about what's going on. Every run thus far today has shown something different. Remnant OFB seems like a good focal point for later today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The latest mesoscale discussion echoes my previous post. nice that expands pretty far south in to parts of N MO/W central IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Wouldn't sleep on areas generally south of GRR-Lansing-Flint in MI either. The MCS is becoming ill-defined on its southern flank and there should be at least decent destabilization through the afternoon, in addition to near-surface flow that might stay backed for longer. Kinematically, have to like that area on the nose of the right-front quadrant of the upper level jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 nice that expands pretty far south in to parts of N MO/W central IL Capping and further displacement from the best upper level forcing is a concern down in this mentioned area, although strong instability and still favorable bulk shear are evident in the latest mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Baseballs reported in Mechanicsville IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Really hard to get it to come all together in 2015. I guess we will wait and see in N.IL can score any instability, but not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Ceilings are coming up quick now. Still solid mid level clouds.Brightening up quickly here the last thirty minutes. Close to that 'filtered sun' look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Brightening up quick here the last thirty minutes. Close to that 'filtered sun' look.It's almost full daylight in LaGrange.. ALEK appears to be a little incorrect in terms of the cover disappearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 It looks to me that the "main show" gets fired up in south-central to east-central Iowa later this afternoon. The upstream environment includes strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE), great theta-e advection and lies on the fringe of steep mid-level lapse rates. As mentioned, winds are locally backed near and just south of I-80 in the eastern half of Iowa. An outflow boundary is somewhere in the vicinity of I-80, roughly. Latest HRRR guidance supports thunderstorm development in the southeastern third of Iowa by mid to late afternoon, with the threat shifting east into northwestern Illinois. There should be solid air-mass recovery across much of southern Iowa, barring some sort of premature convective explosion. Capping may help stop that from happening. I think if you want tornadoes, it will be in southeastern Iowa and may extend into northwestern Illinois. If the flow also remains at least somewhat backed, we may sustain supercells for several hours and see the threat of a strong tornado. That's my thinking based off of the latest obs and trends. There already is air mass recovery and destabilization across S IA attm. SBCAPE of 2000-4000J/KG, MUCAPE 2000-3000J/KG... everything else is on track and agreeable. S IA will only further destabilize, possibly to extreme levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Sucks for the WI crew.... Yesterday's focus was up there, and it was sort of a shift south (as figured) and now nothin'.... sucks guys But keep the Spotted Cow coming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 There already is air mass recovery and destabilization across S IA attm. SBCAPE of 2000-4000J/KG, MUCAPE 2000-3000J/KG... everything else is on track and agreeable. S IA will only further destabilize, possibly to extreme levels. Turning around quick from even just the prior hour's analysis. A good sign if you want severe in S IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 It's almost full daylight in LaGrange.. ALEK appears to be a little incorrect in terms of the cover disappearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Sucks for the WI crew.... Yesterday's focus was up there, and it was sort of a shift south (as figured) and now nothin'.... sucks guys But keep the Spotted Cow coming.... I guess wisconsinwx is going to find another hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 It's almost full daylight in LaGrange.. ALEK appears to be a little incorrect in terms of the cover disappearing. Not quite full daylight. Still plenty of clouds, but markedly brighter than it was an hour ago. If anything happens this afternoon, I will be surprised. The remaining showers that are sinking SE through the LOT CWA seem to be taking on a more eastward shift, and there is a long tail of showers and storms all the back to east-central Iowa. I don't think LOT CWA sees any clearing......but, then, that is just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Filtered sun here in Kenosha--muggy as all hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 A lot of large hail reports through the far north side of Cedar Rapids onward to the ese. Here on the west side I only got heavy rain with no hail at all... picked up 0.68" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Not quite full daylight. Still plenty of clouds, but markedly brighter than it was an hour ago. If anything happens this afternoon, I will be surprised. The remaining showers that are sinking SE through the LOT CWA seem to be taking on a more eastward shift, and there is a long tail of showers and storms all the back to east-central Iowa. I don't think LOT CWA sees any clearing......but, then, that is just my opinion. I give it about 60-90 minutes - it is shifting S/SE ward. I can see blue breaks in the distance from my office in the burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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