Chargers09 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Makes sense IMO. They could always go moderate with a later outlook once it becomes clear where exactly the best dynamics will end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Major reduction RIP wisconsinwx Lolol so true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Shelf was sort of meh. Was okay I guess. The whales mouth following it though looked pretty sweet. Picked up 0.08" of rain. The heaviest downpours stayed just a bit north. 4 wheel drive vehicle? Looks like you ditched it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Numerous wind damage reports coming out of Jefferson Co. WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The 10% tornado area got quite a bit longer, though no hatching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 10% TOR corridor from IA to Ern MI (no hatch). Large 30% hatch wind area now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I'm not sure if Im the only one who still think we should get a moderate haha. If we could get those extreme winds from the MCS, I think it almost points to the setup being on point as long as these could get out of here by around 1 pm (which they should easily) Extensive cloud cover and bouts of showers/storms extend all the way back to C. Iowa...We're not clearing out by 1, not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Hatched TOR removed in latest D1. 10% area dropped south and extended east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Gusty winds as the storms blew through, but garden variety. Ready to reload Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Extensive cloud cover and bouts of showers/storms extend all the way back to C. Iowa...We're not clearing out by 1, not even close. Maybe 1:30-2, the extended cloud cover is moving south east, not due east where the whole thing will go over N IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I think this was the right move. Stay with a similar outlook area, add a few higher pops, and set yourself up to upgrade to MDT where and when necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 4 wheel drive vehicle? Looks like you ditched it lol Oh yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 SPC still going with firing after the departure of the MCS STRONG CAPPING IS EVIDENT ACROSS ERN NEB BASED ON MORNING RAOBSWHICH SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE RISK W OF THE MO RIVER...BUT NEW STORMDEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY WITH TIME ACROSS IA -- LIKELY INVOF THECOLD FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION INITIALLY. STORMS SHOULDSPREAD/DEVELOP EWD OR ESEWD WITH TIME...MOVING INTO NRN IL ALONGWITH RISK FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. A COUPLE OF TORNADOESWILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...THOUGH UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTIONINTO AN MCS SEEMS LIKELY WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY SUGGEST A TRANSITIONTOWARD MAINLY WIND/HAIL RISK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I did say I'd be leaving if we received no t'storm action. Luckily we did before the main bow crapped out, so it wasn't that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 So we can start talking about Wednesday in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Wagons a touch south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Extensive cloud cover and bouts of showers/storms extend all the way back to C. Iowa...We're not clearing out by 1, not even close. we aren't clearing out period, non-event in the making for KLOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 we aren't clearing out period, non-event in the making for KLOTI'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Wagons a touch south. output_ONE1J4.gif yep was just about to say looks like a 30-50 mile shift south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Clouds appear to be hampering another nice threat. Darn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I'll believe it when I see it. judging by the movement on the back edge, I see at least 3-4 more hours (peak heating) under dense overcast. http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/wisc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 we aren't clearing out period, non-event in the making for KLOTI think there may still be a little potential, but it's definitely not looking good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Still a huge plume of unspoiled, and very steep lapse rates poised upwind of the risk area. The MCS is hauling ass to the east. I think we'll see very rapid re-destabilization by mid-afternoon ahead of the front in Iowa, and that will quickly transition eastward. LLJ really never shuts off today, and will help re- feed the BL. Certainly not giving up on this yet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 judging by the movement on the back edge, I see at least 3-4 more hours (peak heating) under dense overcast http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/wisc/ The clouds appear to be moving southeast, not directly east. Like I said, I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 judging by the movement on the back edge, I see at least 3-4 more hours (peak heating) under dense overcast. http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/wisc/ That cloud deck is thinning and the tops are warming, there will be some sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 That cloud deck is thinning and the tops are warming, there will be some sunshine. I agree with this. ALEK, let's revisit June of 2010 and 2011. We had two very similar setups, with full cloud cover. We had no power for 6 days afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Even if it takes LOT long to clear out, the positive is that upstream in S MN/N IA is clearing out nicely. Development should occur and then have to hope that instability advects in to N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 I agree with this. ALEK, let's revisit June of 2010 and 2011. We had two very similar setups, with full cloud cover. We had no power for 6 days afterwards. Yeah, I am not saying it is going to jump to clear skies by any means. However there very well will be filtered sunshine as the cirrus deck thins out. With the type of lapse rates out there, it won't take much warming to jack the instability up very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 Even if it takes LOT long to clear out, the positive is that upstream in S MN/N IA is clearing out nicely. Development should occur and then have to hope that instability advects in to N IL. Yeah this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 So we can start talking about Wednesday in this thread?the other thread for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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