JacobChgo19 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 If you look at the clouds "ahead" of the pack in S. IL, one can see the SEwrd movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 we aren't clearing out period, non-event in the making for KLOT disagree. this is turning into a 7-9pm event for LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 If you look at the clouds "ahead" of the pack in S. IL, one can see the SEwrd movement. Exactly. If the clouds were moving DUE EAST then maybe I would agree, but they're not... so I am disagreeing with ALEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 There's a reasoning that SPC took conservative approach, and it's obviously the lack of instability. At this point, I'd hedge on the conservative side also until we see otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Judging on Vis satellite loops, most of WI should be cleared in the next hour or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 FWIW, the skies mostly cleared here earlier but a thick overcast has moved back in. Not saying it will have a direct impact downstream, just an observation. I didn't see any severe wind reports here, but I had in 18 inch diameter limb crack off a 100 yr old tree in the yard. Bummed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Helicities really have not kicked in yet either despite ample shear racing east. Take it easy folks, it's only 130 ET/1230 CT and with a system as dynamic as this one there is still a lot at play today Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Severe thunderstorm watch. Though for the life of me I don't see why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Latest mesoanalysis continues to steepen mid-level lapse rates across S WI/N IL. N IL is approaching 8.5 C/km. As mentioned before... it shouldn't take much heating to get strong instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Severe thunderstorm watch. Until 9pm tonight for most of Southern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Until 9pm tonight. I honestly don't feel like this will be our only watch of the day, tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Boundary retreating north accross central iowa...some cooling in cloud tops on the back edge of the mcs shield better defining things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I don't know if it's it a good sign that my heating won't be spoiled because I'm out of the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Severe warned cell in Cedar Rapids, IA moving SE at 36 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Severe warned cell in Cedar Rapids, IA moving SE at 36 ktsCould be our first storm of the day to blow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Flow is backed in the Cedar Rapids area, although temps are on the cool side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Latest HRRR starting to pick up on a tornado threat later this afternoon/evening across Northern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 we aren't clearing out period, non-event in the making for KLOT After looking at this - yeah I think so, especially this far north. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/NA/IR4/20.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Latest HRRR starting to pick up on a tornado threat later this afternoon/evening across Northern Illinois. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Latest HRRR starting to pick up on a tornado threat later this afternoon/evening across Northern Illinois. Even some in east Michigan too (hour 8 of 16z HRRR) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Latest HRRR starting to pick up on a tornado threat later this afternoon/evening across Northern Illinois. Something I noticed though is that the surface temp progs are not matching reality right now. For instance, it's showing temps of 80+ in much of N IL right now but it's cooler than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The stuff in eastern IA is moving into the worked over air...temps in the upper 60's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Something I noticed though is that the surface temp progs are not matching reality right now. For instance, it's showing temps of 80+ in much of N IL right now but it's cooler than that.It's nice and warm over here. 80 degrees or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Something I noticed though is that the surface temp progs are not matching reality right now. For instance, it's showing temps of 80+ in much of N IL right now but it's cooler than that. I think that's due to how it's handling current showers/storms...which is not well. It has weakening showers along the IL/WI border quickly fading in the next hour. When in reality that activity is further south, and then you have that activity in E. Iowa that is further developing...which it doesn't show at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 After looking at this - yeah I think so, especially this far north. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/NA/IR4/20.jpg Well, if you look at the latest visible satellite loop is appears that clouds have been clearing gradually for a bit, and in the last 30 minutes or so at a bit of a faster clip... at least some clearing is occurring over SE IA and E IL attm with temps ranging in the upper 70's to low 80's across this area as well as C IL, and that should translate north and east some over the next hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Well, if you look at the latest visible satellite loop is appears that clouds have been clearing gradually for a bit, and in the last 30 minutes or so at a bit of a faster clip... at least some clearing is occurring over SE IA and E IL attm, and that should translate north and east some over the next hour or two.Getting brighter in La Grange, clouds appear to be gradually thinning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Boundary retreating north accross central iowa...some cooling in cloud tops on the back edge of the mcs shield better defining things That boundary is going to have a tough time lifting north farther to the east. Looking like an I-80/south show later in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Looking like an I-80/south show later in my mind. Correct Ottawa or so west into the heart of the DVN CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 18z LOT aviation update IT IS ANOTHER VERY MESSY CONVECTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN. CURRENTLY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS...FROM LAST NIGHT...CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN TERMINALS. THIS IS RESULTING IN MAINLY JUST SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. \AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST OVER EASTERN IOWA...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A REMNANT LOW LEVEL JET. IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS. THE NEXT CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPARK OFF ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE STORMS COULD IMPACT THE EASTERN TERMINALS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00 UTC THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD LIMIT THE RECOVERY OF THE ATMOSPHERE SOME THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN RETURN THE EXTENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER. HOWEVER...WITH RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND AN AREA OF CLEARING OVER NORTHERN IOWA...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT CONDITIONS COULD RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (LARGE CHANGES IN TEMP WITH HEIGHT). WITH THIS IN MIND...I AM PLANNING ON HOLDING ON TO THE CURRENT TIMING FOR THUNDER EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IN ADDITIONAL TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD AFTER 19 UTC THAT THE WINDS COULD BECOME EASTERLY FOLLOWING THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE WIND SPEEDS TOP 10 KT. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT...WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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