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About ClicheVortex2014

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    Sophomore Meteorology Student at Ohio University
  • Birthday 06/30/1993

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  • Location:
    Athens, OH

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  1. ILN I wish they would've said more about Friday. I think that looks more likely to be the story for our CWA
  2. I'm more excited for Friday than Saturday, I think.
  3. This would be nice Better than nothing. Literally, at least it initiates something. But it's not good when the only model that gives you hope is the 4km NAM.
  4. Friday's looking like an all-or-nothing day. Parameters are certainly there for a pretty good event, just not seeing any convection to fire up. This time of year, you can hold hope for either an outflow boundary to set up or a June 29-like scenario. I'm not holding my breath.
  5. GFS doesn't look bad considering it's probably not handling the morning convection and clouds correctly, as well as usually being the coolest/least humid model. The speed and directional shear are pretty damn decent.
  6. Pushes into Pennsylvania by 12z. I'd imagine that'd be a good thing for Ohio.
  7. I'm getting a bit excited about this Friday and Saturday. SPC and Forbes have Saturday's event staying just to my northeast, but I feel I'm in a good position due to how far out we are and how unpredictable MCS's are. I don't think I'd be feeling good if I was in the bullseye for Saturday's event right now. ILN had a good writeup. Stoked some optimism for me.
  8. Ah, there it is. I agree with you... though I think it's certainly plausible given the setup. Hopefully there'll be some more interesting discos this afternoon
  9. Whose disco? Better than nothing. Really impressed with SPC's day 6 outlook wording. GFS looks pretty nasty, too.
  10. Even though there's still a whole bunch of warnings on the squall in E OK, I'm going to bed. As of now, there's been 415 severe tstorm warnings today over 13 states. Aside from the tornado bust, the biggest surprise to me was the intensity of the activity in the Ohio Valley.
  11. Slight risk... maybe a mention of upgrade when details become clearer
  12. I will say... this is something we didn't have with today's event. SREF has 45% sigtor probability for Friday, this far out. Hell, I don't think it had higher probabilities at any point for this event. That doesn't speak to the potential/parameters as much as it probably does to the fact that it sees precipitation aligned with the parameters this time. But SREF is a NAM off-shoot, or something like that... so yeah.
  13. NAM is almost always the one that's got a robust event past hour 48, but then it usually comes back to reality. The thing that set this event apart from the rest is that NAM wasn't alone with a robust event. In the case of Friday, it is alone. I'm not writing it off... I'm just not biting yet.
  14. I know this has been beat to death over the past few days, but since you mentioned 2015; it's good that the EML verified and wasn't the reason for a bust. Going EML-less really sucks. FWIW... Forbes has a TORCON of 4 for Friday and Saturday. I think that's pretty typical of him in the spring when there's uncertainty and/or an event in the near-term that needs to be resolved. I just don't buy the NAM right now because it's hour 72 and there's not model agreement - unlike this event.